The Dalai Lama has put in place a reincarnation plan to protect his legacy against Chinese interference by insisting that his successor will be born in the free world and identified by a trust founded by him
Lhendup G Bhutia
Lhendup G Bhutia
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04 Jul, 2025
The Dalai Lama attends a prayer ceremony, Dharamshala, June 30, 2025 (Photo: Reuters)
FOR WEEKS NOW, an air of anticipation has hung over Dharamshala. Its most famous resident, the Dalai Lama, had once said he would clarify the issue of his reincarnation when he turned 90. But even the most ardent of Tibet watchers were not expecting him to take a call in the days leading up to that date, his birthday, on July 6. It had always seemed less of a deadline and more an effort to buy time.
But since last week, hints had been coming thick and fast. Penpa Tsering, the Sikyong or political head of the Central Tibetan Administration (CTA) let on to one reporter that there would be a video message by the Dalai Lama at the start of a religious conference on July 2, and it could be about his reincarnation. It would be pre-recorded, translations in English would be provided, followed by a press conference, the CTA’s press officer would tell journalists later.
In the run-up to his birthday, the Dalai Lama was rarely seen in public. Even the audiences he grants thrice weekly to the public had been discontinued for the week. He appeared just once, on June 30, at an event in honour of his birthday where, in a short message, he dropped another hint. “There will be some kind of a framework within which we can talk about the continuation of the institution of the Dalai Lamas,” he said.
On the appointed day of July 2, a bright morning had broken out across Dharamshala after several days of fog. Inside a large hall at the Dalai Lama Library and Archives, a building that stands not too far from the residence of the spiritual leader, red-robed monks sat on chairs in studied silence. A religious conference that had drawn some of the highest lamas of Tibetan Buddhism from around the world was about to get underway. But at that moment, it seemed as though the journalists gathered might outnumber them. All eyes however were trained on two large screens that had been put up at the front of the room. Any moment now, the Dalai Lama was going to appear to make his statement. Even the arrival of Richard Gere, politely moving through a row of seated monks like an apologetic latecomer to a movie hall, did not elicit much interest.
The US has passed legislation that affirms the right of Tibetan Buddhists to choose the next Dalai Lama. China responded by making it illegal for lamas to reincarnate outside the country. Many believe the Indian government will have an important role to play
After a short prayer service, and an address by Tsering, the two screens came alive. The Dalai Lama was seated on a chair with two sheaves of paper in his hand. He is not known to like reading from prepared statements, but was making an exception. For the next few minutes, in the frail voice of a person approaching his 90s, he read out the statement in Tibetan, only occasionally looking up at the camera.
“Although I have had no public discussions on this issue [whether the institution of the Dalai Lama should continue], over the last 14 years leaders of Tibet’s spiritual traditions, members of the Tibetan Parliament in Exile, participants in a Special General Body Meeting, members of the Central Tibetan Administration, NGOs, Buddhists from the Himalayan region, Mongolia, Buddhist republics of the Russian Federation and Buddhists in Asia including Mainland China, have written to me with reasons, earnestly requesting that the institution of the Dalai Lama continue. In particular, I have received messages through various channels from Tibetans in Tibet making the same appeal,” an English translation of his speech read. He was referring to the response after a statement made in 2011 when he had said he would consult high lamas and the Tibetan public when he turned 90 to decide whether the lineage should continue. “In accordance with all these requests, I am affirming that the institution of the Dalai Lama will continue,” he said.
AND THEN REFERRING to his 2011 statement once again, where he had declared that the responsibility of finding the next Dalai Lama would rest exclusively with members of the Gaden Phodrang Trust, who are expected to consult the heads of various Tibetan Buddhist traditions and certain members of traditions linked to the lineage of the Dalai Lamas, he reiterated once again that the Gaden Phodrang Trust will be the sole authority to recognise the future reincarnation.
The Dalai Lama had in the past given mixed statements as to whether there should be a reincarnation. He had already devolved his political powers by 2011. And sometimes he would even say that the institution might have had served its purpose.
It has, however, been evident for some time that regardless of his decision, China will try to control the process of finding the next Dalai Lama. Having not had its way with the 14th, Beijing aims to solve the problem by installing its own 15th. But now, by explicitly stating that there indeed will be a 15th after his passing, and that the next would be born in a free country (and by extension not in China-controlled Tibet or Mainland China), that the power to find and recognise the next reincarnation will lie solely with the Gaden Phodrang Trust (founded by the Dalai Lama in exile), and that “no one else has any such authority to interfere in this matter”, the Dalai Lama has laid down the ground rules for picking the next candidate and effectively blocked out China from trying to interfere in the process. By also making his decision after going through an almost democratic process of asking Tibetans, including those in Tibet, and its institutions, he was signalling that the next reincarnation picked by his trust would be one based on the consent of people, and not through coercion.
The concept of reincarnation could seem a curious subject in contemporary global politics, but it is the battleground on which the future of Tibet and the larger geopolitical game around Buddhism is being fought today. While everyone gets reborn after death according to Tibetan Buddhism, some enlightened beings are believed to have the ability to consciously choose their rebirth. The souls of such tulkus, or reincarnated lamas, are said to have been migrating this way from body to body for the benefit of others for centuries, with the lineage of the Dalai Lama alone going back well over half a millennium.
Beijing, whose grip on Tibet is near-absolute today, has been trying to extend its control to this otherworldly phenomenon of transmigrating Buddhist souls. It has a law, issued in 2007 and often referred to as Order No 5 (officially ‘Measures on the Management of the Reincarnation of Living Buddhas’) which requires a lama to seek government permission before reincarnating, and which gives the Chinese government the authority to search for and recognise reincarnations. There is a growing number of such state-approved living Buddhas through which China hopes to reshape the nature of Tibetan Buddhism practiced in Tibet, and potentially elsewhere in the world. And to the Chinese Communist Party, there is no reincarnation more important to control than the Dalai Lama.
Beijing had been expecting the Dalai Lama to make a statement on his reincarnation. Many have seen last month’s rare face-to-face meeting between Xi Jinping and the Chinese-appointed Panchen Lama, the second-highest figure in Tibetan Buddhism (the Dalai Lama’s pick for the lama has never been seen after he was chosen in 1995 as a five-year-old), as preparation for the Dalai Lama’s coming statement. After the Dalai Lama spoke, Beijing reacted by reiterating its position that the reincarnation must be approved by the central government in Beijing. “Tibetan Buddhism was born in China and is a religion with Chinese characteristics,” China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told the media.
The Dalai Lama’s statement wasn’t wholly unexpected. Namgyal Dolkar Lhagyari, a member of the Tibetan parliament in exile, points out that over the last few years Tibetans had been making petitions at various fora asking for the Dalai Lama to continue his lineage. “It was obvious that most Tibetans wanted the Dalai Lama line to continue. And all of us in the community were expecting him to say there would be a 15th,” he said.
The Dalai Lama has chosen to opt for the traditional method of finding a reincarnation. While this will be in keeping with tradition, it will also cause an interregnum that could last 15 or more years, a period that has historically often led to instability in Tibet and which could be crucial for Tibetans trying to keep their cause alive in exile
Another hint also came in the form of a new book by the Dalai Lama, Voice for the Voiceless, wherein he brings up the issue of his reincarnation. There is also a quality of finality to the book, as he looks to put on record everything that has gone by, from his efforts at resolving the Tibet issue to preserving Tibetan culture, and conveys his thanks and messages. Thupten Jinpa, a Buddhist scholar and the Dalai Lama’s longtime English translator, who helped put the book together, says it had been planned some time ago. “One of the main reasons behind this book was to put the full record of the seven decades of efforts to resolve [the Tibet] issue, the many attempts and negotiations with the Chinese leadership,” Jinpa says. “It is also a book that looks to the future. If the Tibet issue were not resolved [in His Holiness’ lifetime], it serves as a guide for the Tibetan people and their aspirations.”
The Dalai Lama is of course not chosen, but found. And the process of finding one is steeped in mysticism and occult practices. There are oracles and prophesies, signs and visions, and search parties traditionally fanned out to distant places, and carried out tests to see if a candidate could remember objects from his past life. Clues can be found in which direction the face of a deceased Dalai Lama is turned to, or, if the body is cremated, in the direction of the smoke. After the 13th Dalai Lama, Thupten Gyatso, died, when his body was being mummified, it is said, his head was discovered to have turned, from facing south to the northeast, which was interpreted as sign of the direction where the new incarnation was born. Dreams are another important guide. And those involved in finding the next Dalai Lama often consult an oracle lake, Lhamo La-Tso in central Tibet.
In the case of the current Dalai Lama, when the Regent of Tibet then, himself a senior lama, looked into the sacred waters of Lhamo La-Tso, the Tibetan letters Ah, Ka and Ma, followed by the image of a three-storied monastery with a turquoise and gold roof and a path running from it to a hill, and finally, a small house with strangely shaped guttering, is believed to have floated into view. These visions guided the search party, a group of monks disguised as servants, to a specific house close to Kumbum Monastery in the northeastern Tibetan province of Amdo, where they found a two-year-old Lhamo Thondup. The boy is believed to have addressed the group’s leader by name, and picked out all the artefacts that had belonged to the previous Dalai Lama, uttering the words, “It’s mine, it’s mine.”
When the time comes, such a process, many assume, will be followed in the search of the next Dalai Lama too, since the current Dalai Lama’s statement mentions that “They [the Gaden Phodrang Trust] should accordingly carry out the procedures of search and recognition in accordance with past tradition.” But for the first time, this ancient tradition will have to be carried out in a new land. A new Dalai Lama will have to be found away from home, adapting ancient tradition and mystic practices to a new geographic and political reality. Access to sacred spaces like the oracular lake Lhamo La-Tso may become difficult, but many believe this could be managed with the help of Tibetans inside Tibet.
WHEN THE DALAI LAMA made his statement, what would have been unexpected was if the Dalai Lamahad opted for ‘emanation’, where he would have chosen the next Dalai Lama in his own lifetime, something he had mentioned in 2011. “But the Dalai Lama hasn’t spoken about this since that statement. So it did appear that he wasn’t going to go that route,” says Kate Saunders, an analyst and writer specialising on Tibet who leads Turquoise Roof, a Tibet research network.
Beijing had been expecting the Dalai Lama to make a statement on his reincarnation. Many saw last month’s rare face-to-face meeting between Xi Jinping and the Chinese-appointed Panchen Lama, the second-highest figure in Tibetan Buddhism, as preparation for the Dalai Lama’s coming statement
The Dalai Lama has instead chosen to opt for the traditional method of finding a reincarnation after the death of the current one. While this will be more in keeping with tradition, it will also cause an interregnum that could last anywhere between 15 to more years, from the passing of the current one to the finding, followed by the training, of the next, a period that has historically often led to instability in Tibet, and which could be crucial for Tibetans trying to keep their cause alive in exile. Tsering believes the community should be able to get through it. “Whenever such a time comes, if the Tibetan exile leadership continues to serve the community in a truthful and justified manner, and if all the Tibetans are united, then I think we should be able to get through the difficulties of such an interregnum also,” he says.
Tenzin Tsundue, a Tibetan writer and activist, points out the need for a plan. “Traditionally, people took their own sweet time for installing the next Dalai Lama. We won’t have that luxury now. In every Tibetan mind, there is this feeling that we need to have a plan. What should we do? How should we better prepare for the next 15 years?” he says.
Although the Dalai Lama has left the power of finding the next reincarnation to the Gaden Phodrang Trust, which will have to consult heads of various Tibetan Buddhist traditions, Saunders believes the Tibetan ecclesiastical community will have to guard itself against any infighting. “If there are any differences, you can trust that China will try to exploit those,” she says.
Such differences are not unknown to Tibetan Buddhism. It occurred as recently as the early 1990s when differences over who should be the next Karmapa Lama, a prominent figure in Tibetan Buddhism, cropped up between two important lamas. Tai Situ Rinpoche recognised Ogyen Trinley Dorje, and Shamar Rinpoche recognised Trinley Thaye Dorje. Some in Dharamshala even believe Shamar Rinpoche used his connections within the Indian intelligence network to cast Ogyen Trinley Dorje, who had fled Tibet, as a likely Chinese mole, leading to restrictions on his movements within India.
This question of the Dalai Lama’s rebirth comes at a particularly fraught moment in Tibetan history. China has further tightened its grip over Tibet. There has been a systematic attempt at Sinicising Tibetan identity and culture. Tibet is today referred to as Xizang, the Chinese term for the region, across the People’s Republic of China (PRC), something which it is forcing foreign countries and institutions to also adopt. Over a million Tibetan children today are also forced to stay in Chinese-language boarding schools, with the aim, it is believed, of making them forget their own language and create a wedge between them and the older generations. Back in India, the Tibetan community is shrinking rapidly, as more and more leave for better opportunities in the West. Because of China’s harsh control of its borders, the steady number of Tibetans who would arrive in Nepal and India has also declined to a trickle. Before 2008, anywhere between 2,000 and 3,000 Tibetans would migrate yearly, many of them children who would get enrolled in schools run by CTA. Last year, only 47 individuals came. The results are evident. CTA’s schools today have increasingly fewer Tibetan children. Even monasteries across India and Nepal now tend to have growing numbers of monks from countries like India, Nepal, and Bhutan. The Dalai Lama had singlehandedly turned the world’s attention to Tibet. But China has increased the costs of interacting with him, and most world leaders today tend to keep away.
For all of China’s efforts at attacking the Dalai Lama’s image and curbing his worship, he continues to remain integral to the Tibetan identity. “He is a powerful unifying symbol,” Jinpa says, pointing to how the institution of the Dalai Lama continues to remain a powerful idea. “He symbolises tremendous power beyond the specificity of time and place. No one can replace the Dalai Lama. Inside Tibet, the PRC even bans the display of his photographs, not just publicly but also privately. Yet, it is to him that all Tibetans owe their loyalty. Despite whatever the PRC does, what is in the heart, remains in the heart.”
THE ISSUE OF the next Dalai Lama could become a global flashpoint. The US has already passed legislation (the Tibet Policy and Support Act) that affirms the right of Tibetan Buddhists to choose the next Dalai Lama and rejects any interference by China. China responded by making it illegal for lamas to reincarnate outside the People’s Republic. Many believe the Indian government will have an important role to play, especially if the next Dalai Lama were to be born on Indian soil or possess Indian citizenship. New Delhi had so far maintained a studied silence, but it has now backed the Dalai Lama’s position, stating that it was only the current Dalai Lama and the conventions established by him that could determine the next incarnation.
“The Dalai Lama is the most important and defining institution for Buddhists,” Kiren Rijiju, Union minister for minorities and also a Buddhist, said, adding that, “all those who follow the Dalai Lama feel that the incarnation is to be decided by the established convention and as per the wish of the Dalai Lama himself. Nobody else has the right to decide it except him and the conventions in place.”
China will no doubt bristle at this statement, and in time to come, push the world to recognise the Dalai Lama of its choosing. There are already some disturbing trends about the extent Beijing will go to push its candidates, and punish those who refuse to do so. One aspect of this is the economic leverage it uses against smaller countries, but it has in recent times also begun to target individuals and diaspora groups. Earlier this year, Humkar Dorje, a respected lama who had reportedly refused to host China’s official Panchen Lama at his monastery in Tibet, and who it appears had moved to Vietnam, was found dead in suspicious circumstances after he had been detained in a joint cross-border operation conducted by Chinese and Vietnamese security agents.
But even as Beijing tries to put this practice of reincarnating souls in a vice-like grip, the Dalai Lama has proved to be a more than worthy opponent. Two years ago, he pulled off a coup, when he introduced an eight-year-old boy as the reincarnation of Khalkha Jetsun Dhampa Rinpoche of Mongolia – an important religious figure – during a ceremony in Dharamshala. China had been trying to control the identification of this lama, and it had in fact punished Mongolia a few years before when the Dalai Lama, during a visit to the country, had told journalists that he felt the lama’s reincarnation had been born. China had closed its main border crossing with Mongolia and delayed loan negotiations in retaliation, and later got the country to ban the Dalai Lama from future visits. But the Dalai Lama had strategically and quietly prised out the rinpoche, who also came with the added protection of an American passport, from right under the nose of the Chinese.
While there will no doubt be a geopolitical contest over the next Dalai Lama – and possibly two Dalai Lamas – in the future, it is really the Tibetans to whom the institution matters the most. Tibetans have the concept of namdoh, a bad omen that could come true from uttering it, and bringing up the issue of the Dalai Lama’s death is considered particularly inauspicious. Lhagyari remembers being speechless about 10 years ago when a journalist asked her about a time when the Dalai Lama would not be around. “I just did not know what to say. I had never thought of such a moment and what it would mean,” she says. The community is however slowly coming to grips with such questions.
There is today a celebratory mood across Dharamshala as Tibetans usher in the Dalai Lama’s 90th birthday. Hotels are running full with Tibetans who have travelled from all over the world, multiple events are taking place every few days, and one can see young Tibetans dressed in their finery making their way through town. But deep down, there remains an undercurrent of anxiety.
“There is definitely anxiety, but, I think, it has more to do with the fact that he [the Dalai Lama] has shouldered the entire responsibility of Tibetans, their welfare, politics, spiritual, whatever you call it, since the 1950s,” says the Tibetan poet and writer Bhuchung D Sonam. “That leaves people with great anxiety because when one person has shouldered so much responsibility, the next question that comes up is what happens if?”
Sonam nevertheless points out that people often make it sound much worse than what might actually come to pass. “Some people will frame it in such a way as to say, we will all be doomed. But I think that negates the fact that His Holiness has set up all these institutions with great vision. That no matter what, because of the vision he had… we will continue.”
When Mao Zedong learned that the Dalai Lama had escaped to India after the Chinese army crushed a popular uprising in Lhasa, he was reported to have said, “In that case, we have lost the battle.” Mao was of course referring to the loss of legitimacy the Chinese would suffer after the escape of the Dalai Lama. He would have had no idea that the Dalai Lama would go on to not only safeguard Tibetan identity in the trickiest phase of its history but also become a global icon. Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader closest to Mao in history, has adopted the same belief that to control Tibet one has to control its religious elite, most notably the Dalai Lama.
A future reincarnation will have his own struggles, but by choosing rebirth, the Dalai Lama might be giving the Chinese the slip once again.
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