India an a Tight Rope

NOT UNLIKE THE American exit from Afghanistan, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine unfolded much like a prophecy foretold. But when it happened, complex variables meant India had to deal with multiple scenarios which include balancing ties with a key defence partner, censuring violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty, and not losing sight of India’s main security concern: an armed face-off with China in the eastern Himalayas that will soon complete two years.

As the Russian military attacked Ukraine on February 24, the Indian foreign office faced two related but different sets of problems. On the one hand, there was an inevitable vote at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) that needed deft footwork, and on the other was the task of repatriating some 18,000 Indian students. While the policy front was challenging enough, it was the plight of the students that was more immediate in terms of domestic concerns in the midst of elections in Uttar Pradesh closely tied to the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) national fortunes.

This was the third time in the last two years that India has had to organise a major airlift of its citizens from international crises zones. After the Covid pandemic burst on the world, Indian students (many studying medicine just as in Ukraine) were brought back from China, and later Vande Bharat flights ferried many more from other destinations. Operation Devi Shakti brought back Indians and even Afghans from Afghanistan after Taliban took over the country. Yet, despite problems, China allowed repatriations and Taliban’s swift victory meant India had to deal with just one entity.

The hazardous nature of the situation in Ukraine, particularly in the east and north where Russian forces are battling their way towards the capital Kyiv and looking to subdue cities like Kharkiv, came home with the death of Naveen Shekharappa who was killed while waiting outside a grocery store to collect food. The incident highlights the precarious situation of Indian students stuck in the fighting that makes any movement fraught with danger, even as food and mobile batteries run out. Rescuing some 5,000 students in the war zone is the focus of the government’s efforts even as Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke to the leaders of Poland, Slovakia and Romania in recent days.

The decision to send senior ministers was a political signal as well as an upgrade in India’s presence in the region (see accompanying story), even as the political and diplomatic pitch remains tricky. There have been careful but notable shifts in India’s articulation on Ukraine even as it abstained from two votes at the UN. The stress on the need to respect territorial integrity and sovereignty of states, cessation of violence and the need for negotiations instead of war to settle differences points to India’s unhappiness with the invasion. Modi’s decision to receive a phone call from Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hours after the UNSC vote was significant as the prime minister expressed “deep anguish” over the fighting and reiterated India’s call for the violence to end. The phone call would not have gone down well in Moscow, but officials familiar with events point out that India had to consider not only its position on respecting the sovereignty of nations (relevant in terms of China’s aggression on the Line of Actual Control) but also the fate of thousands of students whose extraction needed the cooperation of Ukrainian authorities.

In his conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the prime minister emphasised that differences between Russia and NATO could only be resolved through “honest and sincere dialogue” and again called for a halt to violence and diplomatic negotiations. The Indian formulation left enough room for Russia to express satisfaction even as the Ukrainian envoy to India gave vent to his dissatisfaction. His comparison of the Russian invasion to the “massacre” of Rajputs by the Mughals conveyed a sense of desperation but inadvertently stepped on a few political tripwires in India where BJP’s rivals and critics, many who profess ‘secular’ credentials, attacked the government for failing to condemn Russian actions. The bottomline for India is that its relations with Russia go back a long way and cannot be jettisoned irrespective of the unilateral and violent intervention in Ukraine. India’s trade with Russia is much larger than with Ukraine and involves crucial aspects of defence, such as heavy and advanced weaponry. The latest deal for the supply of the S-400 Triumf missile defence systems is an important upgrade of capacities against Pakistan and China along with the acquisition of the French Rafale fighters. The existing hardware used by the Army and Air Force is dependent on Russian weapons and spares. Even the new AK-203 factory at Amethi will be set up with the cooperation of Russia through a special purpose joint venture. Russia and the erstwhile Soviet Union have often come to the rescue of India at the UN in the face of hostile moves by Pakistan compounded by indifference or even active collusion of the US and UK in the past. Russian assistance by way of emergency supply of weapons during the Kargil War in 1999 was instant and unconditional. Most significantly, say officials aware of India’s diplomatic moves, the government cannot but consider the lengthy and unresolved standoff with China on the Ladakh border which has seen Indian and Chinese troops clash.

CHINA AND THE Indo-Pacific remain India’s primary concerns and there is worry that the developments in Ukraine may see the US and Western powers, barring some like Australia, to focus more on Russia to the detriment of the Indo-Pacific. Some experts, however, feel this might be the case in the immediate context but the US is not likely to forget that China presents the real, long-term challenge to its military and technological superiority. The proximity of Russia and China, and the fact that the invasion of Ukraine happened not long after the two nations declared a “no limits” policy of cooperation, has not been lost on India or the West. Indian officials maintain that there is a difference between the arguments articulated at a government level as against the popular discourse that is vehemently anti-Russian. They do not see serious pressure on India to outright condemn Russia and be part of any sanctions regime. Responding to the issue, US State Department spokesperson Ned Price said the US relationship with India stands on its own merit. There is recognition that India has little to gain by acting in a manner that will only tighten the Russia-China embrace. In the longer run, this does not help the cause of the US or Europe either, given the rising disquiet over China’s ambition of replacing America as the pre-eminent power.

The impact of the war in Ukraine is difficult to assess as much depends on how long hostilities go on and how they conclude. So far, no nation has been ready to put boots on the ground in support of Ukraine and though the Russian advance is slow, possibly to avoid more widespread casualties, the odds are against the Eurasian nation. At any rate, Russian forces are likely to be in Ukraine for some time even as it is unclear whether Putin will want to bring the entire country under his control or stop after capturing Kyiv with the objective of installing a puppet. However, his actions have thoroughly disrupted the post-Cold War order as there is a serious possibility of the Baltic States and Ukraine’s neighbours Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Moldova marking the new Iron Curtain dividing Russia from Europe. The resulting insecurities in East and Central Europe can well prompt West European powers and the US to position more weapons and soldiers to prevent Putin from threatening smaller neighbours and Nordic countries like Sweden and Finland which he has warned against considering NATO membership. Russia’s actions in turn appear to be fuelled by a long list of grievances at being let down by the West since the Berlin Wall collapsed along with paranoia about NATO expansion and missiles in Central Europe undermining its security. The volatile situation, marked by a severe lack of trust and communication, can lead to wider conflict.

Apart from the strategic domain, India may need to brace for the impact on the economic front in terms of higher inflation due to a likely rise in oil and commodity prices. Much rests on how long the crisis drags and this is hard to predict. The diplomacy will, after the current focus on evacuating Indian nationals is over, focus on nudging a dialogue process to resolve the Ukrainian crisis. The proceedings at the UN and bilateral conversations present an opportunity for careful articulation, while it is evident that it will be for Europe and the US to lead the response as the Ukraine crisis affects NATO most directly. In domestic terms, the developments are likely to quicken efforts to indigenise India’s arms industry, as already outlined by the Budget, even though this is bound to be a long haul.

Out of Kyiv

The evacuation effort is mobilising every resource, whether diplomatic or civil society

About a week after the Ukraine crisis erupted, some 5,000 Indian students stuck in the war zone in the east and north of the country are the focus of the government’s attention, as it explores every likely measure to extricate them to relatively safe areas in the west and then onward into neighbouring countries like Romania, Hungary and Poland.

Getting hold of transport and ensuring safe passage are proving to be a trial for Indian diplomats and the decision to dispatch senior ministers to the region is intended to lend political heft to the evacuation. Moving students located in the west to safer destinations is a less challenging task although even this required intense negotiations with a country like Poland which is receiving a large influx. Adding to the woes is the rough, and sometimes extractive, behaviour of Ukrainian border guards, demanding dollars from foreign nationals looking for an escape route.

As officials scoured for options, they looked at Slovakia, which shares a short border with Ukraine, but hit a roadblock: the available runways were not long enough to allow wide-bodied aircraft operated by Air India and the Indian Air Force—used for long distance flights—to land. But hoping to get students in west Ukraine out before that area is also enveloped in conflict, the government is considering getting hold of small aircraft so that as many students as possible can be sent to Slovakia and then to safer locations.

Government estimates, as of March 3, indicate that the students in west Ukraine could be evacuated in a week’s time, with around 400-800 flown out every day depending on whether two or three flights are feasible. Deliberations by the Cabinet Committee on Security and consultations led by the PMO have seen voluntary organisations with a presence in Europe being roped in to help those who arrive in Ukraine’s neighbouring countries. ISKCON is working to provide meals to students in Romania and mobile kitchens are being set up besides clothing and phones being arranged. Others like Art of Living and Swaminarayan Sanstha are working to help students arriving from Ukraine.

People familiar with the evacuation efforts, called Operation Ganga, said it was an “all of society” approach as every resource, diplomatic and civil society, was being considered. They said students stranded in east Ukraine were facing serious hardships like diminishing connectivity with 10 or more sharing one mobile phone while others are switched off to conserve power. They are also at risk from the shelling and exchange of fire. Unlike the British embassy that relocated to Lviv or the German mission that shut shop, the Indian embassy continues to function. The Chinese have put off evacuation plans with the envoy saying current conditions are too unsafe. The ambassador advised Chinese citizens not to “quarrel with locals” after claims surfaced on social media about hostility towards them.

The US has clearly stated that the government would not be able evacuate citizens and advised them to seek private transportation, if available. The German embassy has also said it is not in a position to transport people out of Ukraine. While most countries issued travel advisories, China did not do so. China asked its nationals—some 6,000 are estimated to be in Ukraine—not to display any signs of identification after having initially asked them to put up flags on transport. According to Ukraine government data, some 80,000 international students are in the country, the largest bunch from India, followed by Morocco, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Nigeria. After the initial days, transit visas are being provided, with Romania and Hungary being the most cooperative.

Non-government sources said the problems at border crossings were common to most nationalities and did not have much to do with India’s stance at the United Nations. Some of the guards were seeing an opportunity to ‘prepare’ for greater uncertainty as no one can guess how long the Ukrainian resistance will last despite the slow progress of the Russian campaign. There was also the possibility of guards prioritising Ukrainian nationals, many of them women, children and the elderly, as the exits were overloaded with crowds of people. On an average, it was taking two days’ waiting to process exits for most nationalities with the US advising its nationals to keep food and water handy.

Latest reports speak of an Indian student being killed in the shelling in Kharkiv and this is what officials are most concerned about. If the fighting in the east were to cease, Indians could even consider the Russian border as an exit point.

Indian studentsrepatriationRussia invades UkraineUkraine crisis