The Curious Case of Starmer: Making Promises Abroad as Home Burns

Having achieved a deal for the UK with India that will benefit British business first, the smiling arrival of Euro Tsarina Ursula von der Leyen in London was meant to be another major win for the Prime Minister.  A partial banishment of Brexit with UK citizens no longer having to stand in long lines at EU passport controls, the nation should rejoice. Instead, Keir Starmer’s reign could last longer than Liz Truss’ but shorter than Rishi Sunak’s, with King Charles III welcoming his fourth government head since 2022. So, what has gone wrong for Keir after last year’s resounding general election victory and such major international deals?

Starmer’s Labour party took power and enforced hate speech laws that have seen British citizens locked up for online posts. This was accentuated as the country reacted to the brutal stabbing murders of three little girls in Southport and accusations of a cover up by the government. This and the reignitement of the Rochdale grooming gangs scandal earlier this year, saw Starmer’s government come under public fire for ignoring domestic issues while chasing trade deals abroad. The astonishing move to cut winter fuel payments for pensioners and then sign the UK-Ukraine 100-Year Partnership Declaration, while sending billions in military aid to Kyiv was objectionable to many on the fence. And yet, it was to get worse, much worse.

Just as the UK was to celebrate Victory in Europe Day on May 8, a car Starmer sold to a neighbour was burned out on the same street as his £2mn private home, which itself was firebombed just four days later. Between these attacks, a house the Prime Minister lived in during the 1990’s got fiery treatment on May 11. Given the anger at the UK leader’s assault on free speech, slashing of pensioner welfare support and aggressive posturing on immigration, while giving Indian techies tax breaks in Britain, there could be a host of culprits.  Free speech absolutists or family members of those jailed for tweets or posts causing a firestorm?  Freezing pensioners making a hot mess?  Or perhaps it was a local IT worker, furious that the India-UK FTA would see him pay taxes while his colleagues who graduated from an IIT paid none?  None of the above.  It was, we’re now told, Russia – though there’s the usual twist.

On May 13 the first suspect arrested for what Starmer called “an attack on all of us, on democracy and the values that we stand for” was 21-year-old Ukrainian Roman Lavrynovych. Lavrynovych, a UK resident who works in construction with a sideline in ‘male modelling’, is “100 percent pro-Ukrainian. He has never spoken Russian and doesn’t allow his sister and brother or anybody else even to listen to Russian music”, according to his Father.  He added that his son is a proud Ukrainian who has always admired Britain.  An odd profile for someone who would attack the properties linked to a PM fully in thrall with Ukraine.

Shortly afterwards a second Ukrainian was arrested as he tried to leave the country.  Twenty-six-year-old Stanislav Carpiuc, also working in construction and ‘male modelling’, has lived for nine years in the UK, reportedly completed his undergraduate degree there and is awaiting results of his postgrad degree from another British university. Arrested at Luton Airport as he prepared to board a flight to Romania, he also holds a Romanian passport. Carpiuc needed a Russian interpreter at his court hearing, not a great sign for British higher education if a graduate can’t speak English.

And then there were three. Thirty-four-year-old Ukrainian national Petro Pochynok was arrested and is also charged with arson. Pochynok has been reported as working in construction with a sideline in male modelling.  All three men have June 6 court date hearings where their fates, and not only, could be decided.

The attacks bear strikingly similar hallmarks to regular arson and sabotage events across Russia initiated by Ukraine’s Secret Services. These see teens and vulnerable people set fire to railway junction boxes, military recruitment offices, bank cash machines and other public objects.  The modus operandi is simple – the person is contacted on Telegram, usually, then presented with an option for fast cash or is blackmailed. From the collection of Russian investigative reports, they are also presented with escape routes or options to avoid detection post-terrorist act.

British media reported on the May attacks and arrests, but refrained from questioning glaring inconsistencies of those now in custody. Meanwhile the British PM has been beaten up at the polls and renewed questions asked over his government’s move to exempt techies from India from UK taxes. Then, in a move that will prejudice any jury selected for trials of the 3 Ukrainians, the UK’s Mail on Sunday and Sunday Mirror reported that MI5 are investigating “Russian links” to the men. An odd revelation given the nature of attacks and the suspect’s backgrounds.

On cue, Britain’s leader spoke up again about stopping small boats crossing the English Channel and protecting NATO’s allies in the Baltic region, going as far as to encourage them to breach maritime law to harass ships traversing to and from Russian ports.  It mirrors the British navy ‘shadowing’ Russian naval vessels passing through international waters in the English Channel – something that has drawn derision from UK citizens.  Many joke that the Russians are patrolling and protecting British waters more frequently than British warships, with those same warships seemingly unable to stop rubber dinghies from landing on British beaches.

Baltic nations got a shocking taste of their own, British-encouraged medicine on May 18 when the Liberian-flagged “Green Admire” oil tanker left Estonia’s Sillamäe port and sailed into Russian waters, only to be detained by the Russian navy. The move by Moscow came days after Estonia tried to capture the Gabonese-flagged “Jaguar” oil tanker bound for Russia’s Primorsk port. The attempt, made in international waters, proved fruitless for the Baltic nation when a Russian SU-30 passed by and the Estonians backed off.  For all of Keir Starmer’s promises to stand firm on NATO’s eastern flank, the sight of the Indian Air Force’s most populous fighter plane exposed a chink in the PM’s armour.

Starmer’s egging on of Baltic aggression has now endangered shipping in the region, even from the basic water depth point of view.  Russia had allowed ships from Finnish and Estonian ports use Russian territorial waters for safe passage, a long-standing agreement in place between the 3 nations. However, the cooperative deal is now under review in Moscow, forcing Estonian and Finnish ships to consider more “challenging” routes according to Estonia’s Foreign Minister Margus Tsakhna.  Tsakhna, referencing his own country’s abortive attempt to “harass” the “Green Admire” in international waters, accused Russia of acting “unpredictably” – in its own waters.

Other Baltic politicians have angrily lashed out at Britain, accusing Starmer of breaking promises and betrayal.  But at home he has his own battles to fight. Tanking favourability ratings, a total local election debacle, questions of how 3 Ukrainian builders/male models knew where to find his private information and the Tory and Reform Parties accusing him of selling out to New Delhi – just one such skirmish has been enough to sink even the most secure leader.

Righting the ship of state in the midst of such storms will take mastery of the highest calibre. However, there is a feeling amongst the UK’s commentariat that the PM is on the bridge of a Belfast-built ship and that the June 6 court appearances of the 3 Ukrainian arson suspects is the iceberg hoving into view.  Even if he limps the ship to shore, the arrival of a Reform-Tory government could scuttle the UK-India Trade FTA or result in a far worse deal for PM Modi’s government.

Britainforeign policyIndia-UK Free Trade AgreementNews BriefSir Keir StarmerUK politicsWeb Exclusive