No Way Back on the Horizon

KERALA HAS BEEN the only true Indian success story of containing the pandemic so far. But, even so, almost immediately after announcing the lifting of restrictions on public movement in a graded manner, reverse gear had to be applied again. People had started coming out in large numbers and Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan told them to remain inside till May 3rd. Kerala’s experiment might not have failed altogether yet but what it makes clear is that the May 3rd deadline that the country awaits for the lockdown to end is going to make little difference. Because what the Government means by lifting the lockdown is an entirely different thing from what the people imagine.

For the Government, it means a resumption of services and businesses. For the people, it is freedom of movement; a return to what life was like before the lockdown. And that is a certain impossibility on May 3rd, even for districts without a single Covid-19 case. The experience of countries like Singapore has already shown that it just takes a few days for the pendulum to swing to the opposite end—from the virus being contained to again rampaging insidiously.

This is a story that will be repeated again and again in villages, towns, districts and states in India. The alternatives people will have are between absolute lockdowns and not-so-absolute lockdowns.

On May 3rd, the Government could say, except for badly affected zones, there will be relaxations in other places. But the nature of the pandemic is such that the worst places are the biggest cities like Mumbai and Delhi. And if these remain paralysed, it spills over to the entire country. Reverse migration will again spread the disease to other regions. There is no part-by-part solution to the pandemic in India that has any hope of sustaining itself. A vaccine or a cure is the only way that life returns to normal.

There is one other option and that is to put the onus of safety back on the citizens. Make it their responsibility to protect the aged and the weak, while the virus runs through the rest of the population creating herd immunity. Sweden is already doing it and the price it pays will determine whether other countries follow suit. And if a vaccine were never to be found, it is what all countries will end up doing anyway.

What might also push governments to adopt this strategy is if it eventually becomes known that the mortality rate is far lower than the 3-4 per cent estimated at present. There is at present a realisation that the number of people infected, but with no symptoms, is considerably greater than what was thought. Which also means the percentage that dies from the disease is much lower.

If it is low enough, then the lockdown wouldn’t make sense. But none of these answers will be available by May 3rd.

About The Author

Madhavankutty Pillai

Madhavankutty Pillai has no specialisations whatsoever. He is among the last of the generalists. And also Open chief of bureau, Mumbai  

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