Manipur Needs To Worry

THREE YEARS AFTER the military coup in Myanmar, Operation 1027 was launched against the military junta by the Three Brotherhood Alliance members comprising the Arakan Army (AA) based in Rakhine State, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) from the Kokang Region of Shan State, and The Ta’ang National Liberation Army, also from Shan State. On October 27, the Alliance simultaneously attacked military outposts, police stations and took control of key cities and highways in the northern part of Shan State. The rebellion quickly spread to the Saigang region and by November 6 the second-biggest city in the country, Kawlin, had fallen to the ethnic armed organisations (EAOs), becoming the first district-level town to be taken by the insurgents. By November 7, and with the launch of Operation 1107 in support of Operation 1027, many other insurgent groups across the country had joined hands. This was perhaps one of the rare occasions in the troubled history of Myanmar when insurgent groups from a variety of ethnic backgrounds had come together in a meticulously coordinated attack against the junta.

The People’s Defence Force (PDF)—militia groups that have branched out of the shadow of National Unity Government (NUG)—also joined the fray. NUG has the unstinted support of the US and has its office in Washington DC at a short distance from the White House. NUG welcomed the Burma Unified through Rigorous Military Accountability Act of 2022 (BURMA Act), the name itself provocative as Burma was rejected by the junta for Myanmar. The Act, which was passed last year by the US Senate as part of the US National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), has not only allowed support for the NUG and other ethnic forces opposing the military junta but has also prevented the junta from gaining access to weapons and international legitimacy. However, such Western policies have only encouraged Myanmar to look towards China and Russia for support, Washington having accused Myanmar’s defence ministry of importing nearly $1 billion worth of material and China remaining Myanmar’s major source of foreign investment, with 40 per cent of its foreign debt owed to Beijing.

Almost a month before the launch of Operation 1027, I had written about the implications of international vested interests and interference in Myanmar for the northeastern region of India (‘The New Great Game’, Open, October 9, 2023). Manipur having borne the brunt of the influx of illegal immigrants, weapons to fuel the Manipur conflict and the increase in the drug trade from Myanmar were only the precursor to what could potentially have far-reaching consequences for India’s national security. As long as instability continues to grip Myanmar, it gives incentives to insurgent groups with transnational ethnic ties to create grander designs that remain unfulfilled after the containment of the Manipur conflict. Although faultlines within communities in Manipur and Mizoram may have been created, the territorial integrity of these states remains intact. However, it would be foolhardy not to recognise the vulnerability of the over 1,643km of porous borders between India and Myanmar with the ‘free movement regime’ (16km on both sides).

Strategically, after the Manipur conflict, in a not-so-remarkable concurrence of events, the Chin National Army (CNA) on November 7, supported by PDF operating from Chin State and Sagaing Division of Myanmar, captured key military outposts and towns on the border with India. Khampat town on the Kale-Tamu road, an important trade route, and Khampat police station in the Sagaing region were the first to fall. The border town of Rikhawdar in Falam district was also seized; it is the first town in Chin State to be fully in control of the Chin National Force (CNF). It was widely reported that CNA spokesperson Salai Htit Ni described Rikhawdar as a hub for trade with India and noted that it was close to outposts of the local CNA groups. Rikhawdar is located a short distance from Zokhawthar town in Mizoram and, critically, has one of the two land border crossings between India and Myanmar. In an ominous declaration of rebel victory, the CNA flag flew over the border crossing. CNA and PDF were aided by their Thantlang drone team which allegedly has access to drones made from commercially available parts and similar to the MR-10 cargo drones used by the Indian Army. To add to their string of strategically captured towns and military installations, it took a group of 80 insurgents to take control of the Khawmawi military camps in Chin State. Many among these groups are active along the Mizoram border. The offensive in Chin State resulted in 75 soldiers of the junta taking refuge in Mizoram. However, it is not just the junta that needs to take cover but also civilians. The capture of these areas prompted over 2,000 civilians to pour into India within the week. With an estimated 50,000 refugees in Mizoram and countless unregistered ones in Manipur, the writing is on the wall.

Moreover, PDF Zoland, a smaller group but with an ambitious name, took over the junta hilltop base on Kennedy Peak in Tedim town. Zo or Zou is the northern Kuki-Chin-Mizo language spoken among tribes in Myanmar and India. In the Manipur conflict, this transnational ethnic identity was propelled by the idea of Zalengam (land of freedom for all Kuki people). In India, Zalengam constitutes parts of Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland, and Karbi Anglong district in Assam; in Myanmar, the Kabaw Valley, Chin State, and parts of Sagaing Division; and in Bangladesh, the Chittagong Hill Tracts. The situation is reminiscent of the now partially exhausted Naga insurgency that dreamt once of ‘Greater Nagalim for Christ’. The Naga umbrella identity was founded upon bringing together over 16 main tribal groups with their own distinct names and languages, with a sense of unity forged with the advent of the British administration and Christianity. The idea of Nagalim, similar to the idea of Zalengam, pursued bringing tribes under an umbrella identity across the Northeast and in Myanmar.

Besides countering the dream of a ‘land of freedom’, which sounds innocuous but hides a subtle secessionist agenda, India should hope for a unified and stable Myanmar. The US involvement in the internal affairs of India’s neighbours, whether Myanmar or Bangladesh, will have a spillover effect. India is not new to the geopolitical games played by the US. The US-CIA involvement in the Naga insurgency is well-recorded. A paper published by the Indian Council of Social Sciences Research claimed that a former secret service agent revealed that the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) had supported and financed the Naga underground movement till the 1950s. The US continued to be the patron and supplier of arms and ammunition to the insurgent groups of Northeast India from Bangkok in the 1970s.

Myanmar, too, has borne the brunt of foreign interference, whether during the 1950s when the CIA supported the Kuomintang (KMT), or pro-democracy forces in the 1980s, giving them funds and training in Thailand. Today, the NUG and the allied EAOs have reportedly asked the US Congress for $525 million in aid and $200 million in nonlethal humanitarian aid.

Finally, the reality of the situation brewing in Myanmar is that it is too close for comfort for India. The conflict in Manipur has left not just the region but also the country anxious. The fall of crucial towns, military installations and infrastructure just across India’s border will give an impetus not only to anti-national elements and insurgents but also to illegal trade of contrabands, including drugs, gold and arecanuts. American support to EAOs will give the insurgents hope of independence. President Myint Swe, in an admission of the challenge faced by the junta, stated that the conflict risked tearing Myanmar apart. This would plunge the region into chaos. It is in India’s interest to hope for Myanmar regaining its stability; not just for India’s future ambitions in Southeast Asia but also for its immediate concerns about stabilising the Northeast, especially Manipur

ethnic violenceKaren National Union ArmyManipurMyanmar’s civil warNortheast India