Make America Grate Again

THE DONALD TRUMP era promises chaos. Global trade will be held to ransom by the threat of Trump’s punitive tariffs. The US president is targeting both friend and foe. While China is the primary target, Trump is aiming steep import tariffs at countries with large trade surpluses with the US. That includes most of the world, including India, which though has a relatively small $38 billion trade surplus with the US.

It is China which irritates Trump the most. Despite the import duties Trump slapped on Chinese goods during his first term (which former President Joe Biden persisted with), China’s trade surplus with the US has fallen only marginally from $353 billion in 2021, when Trump demited office, to $330 billion in 2024. High import tariffs clearly haven’t worked.

What enrages Trump the most, however, is China’s overall trade surplus of nearly$1 trillion in calendar year 2024 with the rest of the world. America, in contrast, ended calendar 2024 with a trade deficit of just under $1 trillion with the rest of the world.

By targeting BRICS on high tariffs, Trump is bracketing India with BRICS co-founders China, Russia, South Africa and Brazil. Trump has a problem with all four. China is a trade predator and security threat. Russia is embroiled in a grinding war with Ukraine which Trump warned “is not going well for Russia”.

Brazil’s left-leaning President Lula da Silva is no friend of Trump. Nor is Trump enamoured of South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa who was the first global leader to move the International Court of Justice (ICJ) at the Hague, calling Israel’s war in Gaza a genocide. Israel is America’s closest ally along with Britain which Trump recently called “a beloved and cherished nation”. Trump’s mother (Mary) was a British immigrant. Trump’s father (Fred) was the son of a German immigrant.

India falls into a special category. Trump knows that India’s rapidly growing markets are too big to ignore. The US also needs India as a frontline military bulwark against China. In the sweeping arc from the Gulf of Aden to the Malacca Strait near Indonesia, India is the only country with the military heft to deter China across the Indo-Pacific.

Past US presidents used NATO’s European powers—principally Britain, France and Germany—to deter the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Trump regards NATO as toothless and complacent. He is the first US president to shift the strategic centre of gravity from the North Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific.

India is thus as important to Trump as Western Europe was to past US presidents, from Franklin D Roosevelt in the 1940s to Bill Clinton in the 1990s. That is why Trump seeks an early end to the Russia-Ukraine war. For him, it is a distraction from the more serious business of challenging China in the Indo-Pacific. He can’t do that without India’s military and geography.

Trump also knows that he is fighting a battle against time. Despite his aggressive MAGA bluster, Trump is aware how little time he actually has left to fulfil his agenda. Mid-term elections to both the Senate and House of Representative (HoR) are scheduled for November 2026. The Republicans have a wafer-thin majority in the HoR. The House could easily flip next year to the Democrats, tying Trump’s hands on major policy decisions.

The Republicans have a slightly bigger majority (53-47) in the Senate but that too could whittle down to a 50-50 tie next November, further narrowing Trump’s options. By then Trump will be just past 80. He is in robust health unlike Biden at the same age but knows that there are no third chances. This is Trump’s second and last term as president.

US politics is brutal. Analysts are already speculating about Trump’s successor in November. Will Vice President JD Vance stand? Will Secretary of State Marco Rubio challenge him in the Republican primaries that begin in early 2027? Who will they face from the Democrats? There aren’t many popular Democratic faces around to challenge Middle America’s cultural shift from the centre to the right.

At 82, Trump will remain a mentor after his term is over but many of his MAGA policies may not survive. Several grate even on Republicans. Most are too intimidated today to speak up.

In November 2026, when the Senate and House mid-terms are held, the Trump era may be entering its twilight zone. The US president knows that better than anyone else. Hence the haste.

Donald TrumpJoe BidenRepublicansUS Elections 2024US politicsUS-China