Dunki Business

TRUMP’S MAGA BASE has been fattened on a diet of fetid prejudice. Sample this scrap: “They’re [illegal immigrants] poisoning the blood of our country.”

Now, after having primed the MAGA base to receive their daily pound of flesh, President Donald Trump has moved quickly to slake their thirst. And he is going for the lowest hanging Latino and Indian carrion available.

Trump has launched military deportation flights as part of his national emergency declaration on immigration. A little over a dozen planeloads of designated ‘illegals’ have been deported. A majority of these flights are to Guatemala, while two have also made their way to India.

Despite nationalists baiting their leaderships, both countries didn’t let pride get in the way of pragmatism and assured Trump that they wanted to “do the right thing”. Sure, it is embarrassing to see the US repatriate your citizens, but risking a fight with Trump as Mexico and Colombia discovered over illegals, is not worth it.

But this is not to say do nothing. India is very much part of America’s illegal immigration problem. The illegals are a living indictment of a floundering ‘Make in India’. The Modi administration must know that the flight of Indians or dunkis, as they are called, is a symptom of flagging opportunities forcing citizens to seek out greener pastures.

But in the near term, India should let Trump have his moment.

It isn’t as if Trump will be able to send back all 18,000 Indian ‘illegals’ identified for repatriation who are only a sliver of 700,000 more dunkis purportedly living in the US. Trump will soon realise that America could end up all the poorer for his populism.

By some credible estimates, Trump’s mass deportation promise could cost the US over $300 billion, which is up from the $50 billion it was estimated to cost in 2016. At the time, the per person cost of deporting an illegal was computed to be a little above $10,000. The $300 billion figure corrected to inflation includes expenses for “detention, legal proceedings, and transportation back to the individual’s home country.”

The price of deportation is just one of the hidden costs. The sudden evaporation of cheap labour from the American market and its deflationary impact on America’s factory, agricultural, housing, and infrastructure sectors is another. The Peterson Institute for International Economics estimates that the US GDP would be 6 per cent below the long-run baseline if all illegals were removed. Such an erosion would noticeably undermine US economic competitiveness in an era when Trump is vowing to make America rich again.

But circling back to the cost of deportation that is going to be immediately borne by the US taxpayer, including MAGA plenipotentiaries, here are some numbers.

It has been estimated that using military planes to, for instance, deport Guatemalans, will cost at least $4,675 per migrant. That’s more than the price of a first-class ticket on a commercial airliner.

As astounding as this may sound, this number is an underestimation. According to those in the know, the estimated cost of operating a C-17 military transport aircraft is $28,500 per hour. The flight back and forth to Guatemala, not including time on the ground or any operations to prepare the flight for take-off, takes about 10-1/2 hours in the air to complete. You do the math.

The cost of using the same C-17 plane to fly out 200-plus illegals to India will be obviously a lot more.

Trump is not the first US president to send Indians back home. Over the last two years, the US has deported over 1,000 dunkis. Trump may send back a few more illegals, but being a businessman used to flipping balance sheets, he will soon focus on net return on investment. The dwindling returns will bother him, but more importantly, deter him.

Donald TrumpDunki Businessillegal immigrantspopulismUS PolicyUS politics