The Vanishing Third Child

New fertility data from the Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2021 confirms a marked shift in India’s reproductive patterns: the third child is becoming statistically rare. In urban areas, third-order births now account for less than 7 percent of all live births.

The report reaffirms several long-term demographic shifts: a sustained decline in India’s fertility rate, a narrowing rural-urban gap in birth patterns, and a growing preference for institutional deliveries and spaced births.

Nationwide, third-order births comprise just 9 percent of the total. Fourth and higher-order births make up another 4.9 percent. Together, these categories—which once defined the Indian household—now account for barely 14 percent of all births. In comparison, first and second-order births account for 60.6 and 25.5 percent, respectively.

This marks a major departure from the past. In 2001, third-order births made up 17.3 percent of the national total. By 2011, that figure had fallen to 13.3 percent. In the last decade, it has dropped by nearly a third.

In some parts of the country, the decline is even more pronounced. Kerala recorded just 2.4 percent of births as third-order and 0.3 percent as fourth or higher. Tamil Nadu followed with 4.3 percent third-order and 1.2 percent fourth or above. These are not statistical outliers. Maharashtra, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, and Karnataka show similar declines, particularly in urban areas.

Even states with traditionally high fertility are seeing rapid change. Uttar Pradesh, the most populous state, now reports third-order births at 11.7 percent and fourth or higher at 8.7 percent. Bihar, while still high on the fertility scale, reports only 14.4 percent third-order births—well below its historical norms.

The second child has become the preferred stopping point in many states. Kerala reports 36.6 percent of births as second-order—the highest in the country. Tamil Nadu follows at 31.6 percent. In much of the South and West, second births outnumber third and fourth combined.

These shifts appear to be driven by behaviour rather than enforcement. States like Kerala and Tamil Nadu, which do not have a two-child policy, show steeper declines in third births than states like Assam or Uttar Pradesh, where such policies have prevailed. This suggests that voluntary family planning, increased spacing, and rising costs of childrearing are more effective levers than law.

Rural areas are following the same trajectory, though at a slower pace. In rural Tamil Nadu, third births account for just 4.5 percent; in Kerala, 2.9 percent. Even rural Uttar Pradesh, long considered a demographic outlier, reports third births at 12.6 percent. Fourth and higher-order births in rural areas now rarely exceed 9 percent.

The SRS data also reveals that most second and third births are spaced by more than three years. Over 50 percent of such births nationwide occur after a gap of 36 months or more, which is clear evidence of planned fertility. In Kerala and Tamil Nadu, the proportion of spaced births is significantly higher.

One lingering asymmetry is gender-based. In northern states like Haryana and Rajasthan, the third child is more often a boy, particularly when the first two are girls. This reflects a primitive yet prevalent preference for a son, but even in these regions, the overall frequency of third births is falling.

The implications are significant. Fewer third-borns means fewer dependents in future decades. The base of the population pyramid is narrowing. In the long term, this will reshape education, employment and eldercare policy. Kerala and Tamil Nadu are already managing ageing populations with relatively low fertility. Other states will follow.

The SRS 2021 report does more than confirm falling birth rates. It documents the end of a particular family structure. The third child, once common enough, is now the exception.

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