Shehbaz Sharif: A Man on Notice

THE SWEARING-IN of Shehbaz Sharif, 72, as prime minister of Pakistan for the second time on March 4 had a predictable ring to it. There was some surprise that elder brother Nawaz did not claim the job with legal hurdles that prevented him from holding office resolved with the blessings of the Pakistan army. But as some commentators noted, the elder Sharif’s decision to step aside might have been prompted by the Paki­stan Muslim League (N)’s underwhelming electoral performance and the brittle nature of the alliance with Bilawal Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party.

As he begins his fresh term, Shehbaz Sharif is keenly aware of the revolving door nature of Pakistan’s politics. On February 15, his handle on X reposted a caustic comment on the army’s use-and-dump policy. Labelled “The Powerful’s diktat”, the post observes how the fairness of the 2018 election was overlooked in the “national interest” and the media advised to report positively on Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government. “…2020: Project is a disaster. Early 2021: The pendulum seems too much tilted towards Imran Khan & PTI…Late 2021: Project is going rogue. Winding up on the cards,” the post concludes. The more things change, the more they remain the same.

The X post’s presence on Shehbaz’s handle is revealing. But there is a larger story in the results of an election that was blatantly manipulated to disadvantage Khan. Despite the military’s strenuous efforts, Khan’s candidates who stood as independents won 93 seats to PML(N)’s 75. The figures changed slightly thereafter but not by much. If the polls had even remotely been a level playing field, Khan would have almost certainly formed the government. The success of the PTI-backed “independents” is a vote against the army’s meddling, a conclusion generals adept at propping up a king’s party in every election could not have missed.

As part of a family arrangement, Nawaz’s daughter Maryam is Punjab chief minister, a job Shehbaz has held thrice in the past, including when his brother was prime minister. In the immediate future, the Sharifs seem to have secured their interests, particularly in their bastion of Punjab where PML(N) has been re-elected. But though the dice are loaded against Khan, the PTI leader retains popular support. Like prime ministers who preceded him, Khan was rudely knocked off his perch. But unlike others, he has not only remained unrepentant but his revolt struck a chord with voters unhappy with lacklustre governance and being force-fed electoral choices.

The new prime minister’s immediate agenda will be focused on restoring Pakistan’s economy and continuing urgent discussions with the International Monetary Fund since the current arrangement will end soon. Indeed, soaring inflation and shortages were a reason why PTI’s nominees found more than anticipated support despite the widespread belief that the party would in no event be allowed to form the government. The protest of voters against a ‘fixed’ match was a cry of anger and anguish, even if a futile one, as the army was never going to allow Khan or his proxies to lead the government after their extraordinarily bitter falling out.

What does Shehbaz’s second stint as prime minister mean for India-Pakistan relations? In the past, both Sharif brothers have indicated a willingness to normalise ties with India. But good intentions may not suffice. The army exercises iron control on Pakistan’s policies as regards India, nuclear assets, and America. This is not to say it is not a factor in just about every aspect of Pakistan’s public life. But it pays to remember that an important reason for the previous parting of ways between Nawaz Sharif and the army was due to the leader’s desire to alter the stale dynamic with India and move the relationship towards a more stable footing.

Despite remarks meant for public consumption, Shehbaz as well as the army are aware that Article 370 is not going to be restored in Jammu and Kashmir. As things stand, it is unclear if Shehbaz has the political capital to engage India meaningfully. Meanwhile, the incentives for India to normalise ties are decreasing as its economy grows and its global standing rises.

Article 370Imran KhanPakistanPakistan prime ministerPakistan Tehreek-e-InsafShehbaz Sharif