KP Sharma Oli: Quick-Change Artist

THERE IS A sense of inevitability about KP Sharma Oli, 72, taking oath as Nepal’s prime minister again as he did on July 14, for the third time since 2015. The canny politician has a well-earned reputation for being a maker and breaker of governments and his short-lived alliance with Pushpa Kamal ‘Prachanda’ Dahal’s Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist-Centre) was never going to last. With Prachanda commanding just 32 seats in the Federal Parliament of 275 members, no one was betting on the longevity of his tenure. In the new coalition, Oli’s Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) has 79 seats and the Nepali Congress (NC) has 88 seats, though whether the pledge to rotate the prime ministership will be honoured is anyone’s guess. Yet, despite their diver­gent politics, Oli and NC leader Sher Bahadur Deuba are united by a desire to share power and keep Prachanda out of the reckoning.

What would Oli’s new stint mean for India-Nepal ties? The leader’s confrontationist stance over Nepal’s claim to the territories of Kalapani, Limpiyadhura, and Lipulekh—under Indian administrative control since Independence—seriously hurt ties during his past stints as prime minister. In 2020, Oli’s government issued a new map, including these areas within Nepal’s borders. The move was ostensibly in response to a ‘new map’ published by India following the abrogation of Article 370 and the designation of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh as Union territories. The argument was transparently fallacious. The re-ordering of the erstwhile state of J&K did not alter the international border by a jot. But Oli, having raised the ante, did not hesitate to engage in another bout of grandstanding with India.

This time round, the initial messages conveyed to Indian leaders maintain there is less to worry about. Oli needs to consolidate and steer the government and watch his flanks as Prachanda looks to even the score. He is also, in the company of NC, seen as more appreciative of the benefits of healthy bilateral relations with India. On its part, India will be keen to see continued progress on ambitious connectivity and power projects that will bind India and Nepal in mutually beneficial relations on a more permanent basis, making ties less susceptible to political change. It also remains to be seen if Oli will resume a sharper pro-China tilt or keep in mind India’s view that while Nepal is free to define its foreign policy, it needs to consider what sort of a relationship it desires with India.

Interestingly, the CPN (UML)-NC alliance has agreed to consider important amendments to the constitution. This is part of the seven-point agenda reached between Deuba and Oli and while the details are not spelt out, the leaders said the objective is to “protect” national interest and make Nepal prosperous. It is possible the alliance is keen to alter the requirement that 40 per cent of seats in the Federal Parliament be filled by proportional representation, a provision seen by many to be a source of near-permanent instability. It is indeed true that given the presence of three major parties and several smaller ones, coalitions are almost inevitable. It would indeed be a welcome development if the proportional representation clause is either done away or its weightage reduced. The proportional representation principle has delivered poor results in most nations that have adopted it. Israel is a particularly good example where governments are swayed by agendas of fringe groups as in the case of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s dependence on the religious right. The proportional system provides disproportionate clout to small parties, setting the stage for a tail-wagging-the-dog scenario.

The birth of the Oli-Deuba pact is shrouded in speculation. It is said Dueba was very keen to be back in office as rumours of a visa scam reaching people close to him circulated in Kathmandu. There were suggestions that a Prachanda-Dueba alliance was in the works too, but discussions between CPN (UML)-NC had progressed too far to be retraced. It is also the case that India showed complete disinterest in the jockeying taking place. Oli has shown he can be a wily and unpredictable player. India would hope his new tenure does not once again provide China an opportunity to insert itself into the India- Nepal equilibrium, and the spectacle of the Chinese ambassador openly negotiating deals between political factions is not repeated.

geopoliticsIndia-Nepal relationsKP Sharma OliNepal-China