Indus treaty first step as India plans major retaliation

The suspension of the Indus Water Treaty between India and Pakistan is the first step among other options that can entail the use of hard power that the Modi government is considering as a response to the cold blooded massacre of 28 male tourists singled out for being non-Muslims at Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir on April 22.

The frenetic pace of discussions and consultations held within government over the past two days point to the political leadership preparing for steps that carry the risk of escalation. The use of military means in delivering a hard and unambiguous message to the Pakistan army and government is intended to leave no room for ambiguity.

The surgical strikes of 2016 and the air raid on the LeT camp at Balakot were denied by Pakistan. This time around, the Indian action is expected to demonstrative leaving the Pakistan leadership with no fig leaves to pretend that Indian actions never happened. After denying strikes on terror launch pads across the line of control, Pakistan claimed that only some trees were hit by Indian bombs at Balakot.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi spelt out India’s resolve in plain words at a rally in Bihar on Wednesday when he said that those responsible for the Pahalgam outrage and their mentors will be severely punished. “I want to say in very clear words those who carried out this attack, those terrorists and the conspirators behind this attack…they will be punished in a manner that is beyond their imagination. They will be definitely punished. The time has come to grind the remaining presence of terrorists into the ground,” he said. Modi spoke a few lines in English to convey his intent to the international audience, saying no power on earth could save the perpetrators of the Pahalgam attacks and their backers.

Foreign secretary Vikram Misri briefed several envoys about the Pahalgam attack and the evidence of its origins and the perpetrators. The envoys of Germany, United States, Poland, Russia, Italy, Qatar, France and Japan were among those who were asked to visit the ministry of external affairs. The idea behind the briefings was to prepare world capitals for the likely Indian response.

Pakistan’s response to Indian decisions was to declare it is suspending the 1972 Shimla Agreement that gave rise to the LoC that is the de facto line separating territory controlled by India and Pakistan. Yet, the move lack any particular significance as the LoC is marked in many places and the alignment of Indian and Pakistani troops has been well defined for decades. In any case, a move to unilaterally alter the line will be resisted by either side.

The suspension of the IWT opens many options for India even though it will not affect flow of water into Pakistan any time soon. Most of Indian projects on the western rivers are run of the river project that do not envisage withholding large bodies of water. But even these were held up due to specious objections raised by Pakistan under the guise of the IWT. Now, India has made it clear that the time when international arbitration and neutral experts could be invoked is over.

The very act of proceeding on projects like Tulbul, a navigation canal on the Jhelum, can be proceeded with. Same is the case with other projects that can be now expanded while India takes up building dams that can store water on a war footing looking to ensure completion in four to five years.

The use of the “suspension” provides a window for negotiation but that can happen only if Pakistan credibly curbs terrorism and will be on new terms altogether.

Bharat-PakistanIndus Water TreatyPahalgamRetaliationterror attackWeb Exclusive