The Wisdom of Delay

LET US BEGIN WITH a caveat. This is not a plea for imposing Central rule in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) in perpetuity.

The status quo where the residents of the state don’t get to elect a government that is accountable to them is not tenable in the long term.

A fact not lost even on the Supreme Court. In December last year, it upheld the abrogation of Article 370. But in the same judgment it had also directed the Election Commission of India to conduct Assembly polls in J&K before September 30, 2024.

Union Home Minister Amit Shah has had no quibble with the Supreme Court’s order. Speaking at an election rally ahead of the Lok Sabha polls in May 2024, Shah confirmed the top court’s directive would be executed before the deadline lapsed.

The Supreme Court’s keenness on restoring to the people of J&K their full democratic rights is morally virtuous, but is it right to have dictated the timeframe? And should Amit Shah have been more circumspect in welcoming the idea? These are complex questions. And there are no easy answers.

Nevertheless, there is a strong case to be made for delaying elections and for strengthening Central rule over the benighted region.

Over the last 32 months, 48 soldiers have been martyred in targeted Islamist strikes on security forces in J&K. The attack in Doda, where security forces lost five more of their bravehearts, is but the latest.

And Islamists are not just targeting security personnel but also scores of innocents. The attacks on civilians are most terrifying because they are random cowardly ambushes designed to arouse terror in unsuspecting minds, lulled into complacency by scenes of topical normality. It is true, cinema halls have opened in the troubled geography for the first time in four decades, curfews and ‘intifada’ are fading from the headlines and trade and tourism are picking up. But the recent spike in violence reveals that the cast of revanchists, religious obscurantists and Pakistan’s mercenaries are just as committed to prosecuting a case for Azaadi or self-rule at gunpoint.

Many who are championing the need to restore political rights will tell you that these elements cannot be allowed to hold democracy hostage. They will point you in the direction of the just-concluded Lok Sabha election. They will cite the impressive record turnout as evidence that the people of the region are no longer alienated from the mainstream. That they are keen on becoming equal stakeholders in the India story.

This thesis is true only up to a point. There is no doubt that the Lok Sabha polls—the first to be held after the abrogation of Article 370—have reduced the physical, emotional and psychological gap between the people of J&K, especially residents of the Valley, and the Indian state. But the Lok Sabha polls have also revealed that the interface between the people and the state— the contenders—is still deeply aligned to separatist and theocratic impulses that led to the ‘troubles’ in the first place.

The incumbent DGP of J&K, RR Swain, has openly talked about this nexus. Swain has said, “Pakistan successfully infiltrated all important aspects of civil society, thanks to so-called mainstream or regional politics in the Valley.”

The campaign and the results of the Lok Sabha election have revealed that the nexus cited by Swain is still very much in place.

The Lok Sabha election saw a highly polarised campaign with contenders playing the parochial card. So much so that one of the candidates elected to Parliament is a separatist sympathiser serving time in jail for alleged links to the Pakistani deep state. As a matter of fact, Engineer Rashid’s victory was flagged by no less than former J&K Chief Minister Omar Abdullah as a development that will empower “secessionists”.

Indeed, what is the guarantee that the prospective Assembly election won’t end up being hijacked once again? If only this time to test whether the voter is still receptive to the appeal of Kashmiri separatism.

2024 ElectionsDodaJammu and KashmirmilitantspoliticsTerror attacks