Over to Sir Keir

AFTER FOURTEEN YEARS in impotent opposition, Britain’s centre-left Labour Party is now savouring the pleasure of returning to power with a massive parliamentary majority. The new prime minister, Sir Keir Starmer, has the authority to deliver far-reaching change to all aspects of UK policy both domestically and internationally. His general election slogan, during the long and gruelling six weeks of campaigning, was one simple word: Change. And yet his programme for government, contained in a glossy manifesto that carried no fewer than 33 photographs of the man himself, is surprisingly modest. So how much change can we expect to see? And is Labour’s position as unassailable as its 172-seat majority in parliament suggests?

The scale of Keir Starmer’s success cannot be overstated. Four-and-a-half years ago, under Labour’s then far-left leader, Jeremy Corbyn, the party suffered its worst defeat since 1935. On July 4, 2024 the tables were turned comprehensively. The Conservative Party, under then-Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, went down to its worst result ever in its history. The Tories lost no fewer than 251 MPs, leaving them with just 121 in a parliament of 650.

Although the opinion polls had been pointing to a massive Labour victory throughout the campaign, shell-shocked Conserv­atives are still coming to terms with the historic rejection of their tarnished brand at the hands of the voters. They are simply not used to losing. Starmer is only the fourth person ever to have taken Labour into government from opposition. It is often said that Britain is a small-c conservative country that only occasionally allows the left to take power. For those of us in the Labour Party that is a painful reminder of how hard we have to work to win.

Sir Keir Starmer did what most people thought would be a decade’s work of rebuilding in less than half that time. Labour went from a position of ‘you can’t win the next election’ to ‘you can’t lose’ in the political equivalent of the blink of an eye

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And that maxim goes a long way to explaining why Labour’s offer to the country this time round has been relatively modest, shorn of any of the radicalism that might have scared the voters away. But it’s not the only explanation. The Labour Party is still proud to retain bold and transformational ambitions for the country. However, its leaders knew that if they had promised the earth nobody would have believed them. There are two reasons for that, and they are both a reflection of the debilitating legacy the Conservatives have left behind.

First of all, the economy is in a mess. Despite the highest tax burden in history, the nation’s finances are stretched beyond breaking point, with public services starved of investment and the basic infrastructure of the country visibly crumbling. The Conservatives have progressively undermined the strength of the economy over the past fourteen years, first through the political choice to impose a period of brutal austerity, then by overseeing the UK’s calamitous departure from the European Union, imposing massive barriers to trade with our largest and closest neighbours, and finally with a reckless and irresponsible experiment with gargantuan tax cuts that came close to crashing the economy altogether.

The second reason—in part but not exclusively a product of the first—is that the Tories oversaw a collapse in trust in the ability of politicians to deliver for the people they are elected to serve. The most egregious example was Boris Johnson and his team partying their way through the Covid crisis while telling the rest of the country they couldn’t get together even to bury their dead. The image of the late Queen sitting alone in the chapel mourning the passing of her husband the day after Downing Street had been the scene of drunken festivities sickened the nation. Johnson’s arrogance and repeated lying was his own undoing, but in the process he poisoned the well of politics for everyone. The mood across the country became cynical and distrustful of anything said by any politician, no matter which party they were from. And the Tory infighting after Johnson resigned in disgrace left many people convinced that those at the top were playing their own self-indulgent games, not understanding or caring what ordinary people were going through.

All of which illustrates the scale of the challenge now facing Sir Keir Starmer and his government. Having worked at West­minster myself for the past three years, I know Sir Keir and the members of his new cabinet well enough to be confident that they are both very aware of those challenges and well-prepared to meet them. And having worked in 10 Downing Street for the last Labour prime minister to win a landslide on this scale, I know the opportunities that majority presents, but also the hazards ahead.

Some of the ministers from the last Labour administration of 1997-2010 are now back in government, but the overwhelming majority of the new team have never held office before, including Sir Keir himself. Although as the former chief prosecutor, the Director of Public Prosecutions, he knows how to run a large institution and to reform it. He has also taken advice from the former prime minister, Sir Tony Blair, and many of those who worked alongside him.

BLAIR CAME TO power after eighteen years of Conserva­tive rule, but he had the benefit of following two previous Labour leaders, Neil Kinnock and John Smith, who had painstakingly brought the party back to the centre ground and helped to make it electable again. Sir Keir Starmer did what most people thought would be a decade’s work of rebuilding in less than half that time. Labour went from a position of “you can’t win the next election” to “you can’t lose” in the political equivalent of the blink of an eye.

Blair also came to power at a time when the public finances were in much better shape than they are today. Following an initial period of caution and restraint in which he kept to the spend­ing envelope he had inherited from the outgoing Conservative government, he was soon able to make very large investments in public services on the back of a booming economy. Keir Starmer doesn’t have that luxury. He has pledged not to raise any of the main revenue-raising taxes and is banking on securing a significant im­provement in the nation’s tepid rate of economic growth to fund future investment. A period of economic stability and sound gov­ernment should help make that a reality, but it won’t happen over­night. Hence Labour’s very modest spending promises. They have deliberately set expectations low on the very sensible grounds that it’s better to under-promise and over-deliver than to do the opposite.

Tony Blair came to power at a time when the public finances were in much better shape than they are today. Keir Starmer doesn’t have that luxury. He has pledged not to raise any of the main revenue-raising taxes and is banking on securing a significant improvement in the nation’s tepid rate of economic growth to fund future investment. A period of economic stability and sound government should help make that a reality, but it won’t happen overnight. Hence Labour’s very modest spending promises

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Sir Keir knows, however, that the public voted for change and will be expecting to see it before long. The easy part is demonstrat­ing a change to integrity and honesty in public life, something he epitomises personally and which he has demanded of his whole team. But he knows that it will not be enough on its own. The public wants to see big changes and soon in ways that will be much more difficult to deliver. These include reform of the broken National Health Service, tackling the crisis in social care for the elderly and addressing the surge in immigration to the UK, both legally and illegally in the form of small boats laden with refugees and others crossing the English Channel from France. The outgoing prime minister promised to “Stop the Boats” but manifestly failed to do so. That failure was one reason why the populist far-right party, Reform UK, did well in the election, winning 14 per cent of the vote and helping to defeat dozens of Tory MPs across the country.

Politically, stemming the rise of rightwing populism will be a significant test for the new government. Starmer’s victory went against the grain of results in so much of the rest of the world where populists continue to win public support and to capitalise on the perceived failures of governments of the centre and left.

These challenges—both economic and political—can only be met one way. By delivering on your promises and slowly but surely restoring trust in the competence of mainstream politics and its ability to grow the economy, rebuild the public realm and make people better off financially.

The challenges–both economic and political–can only be met one way. By delivering on your promises and slowly but surely restoring trust in the competence of mainstream politics and its ability to grow the economy, rebuild the public realm and make people better off financially

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Sir Keir Starmer correctly identified the malaise in British politics in his speech outside Downing Street after the election. As he said, “When the gap between the sacrifices made by people and the service they receive from politicians grows this big, it leads to weariness in the heart of a nation.” His answer was equally clear. “This wound, this lack of trust, can only be healed by actions not words. I know that. But we can make a start today with the simple acknowledgement that public service is privilege.”

Labour’s huge majority masked another significant development that reflected a loss of trust by a sizeable and elector­ally influential section of society. Alongside the extensive gains, Labour lost five seats—including those of two people in Starmer’s top team—because of an issue that it is not in his power to resolve. Anger at the party’s position on the war in Gaza led to large numbers of Muslim voters and others on the left to reject Labour candidates in favour of independ­ents and Greens. Many people in communities with large South Asian populations in particular felt ignored and disenfranchised by all the main parties. The fact that Labour had come round to supporting an immediate ceasefire in Gaza did lit­tle to make up for what was seen as Sir Keir’s uncritical support for Israel at the start of the war. And while a handful of independent MPs will have no power to frustrate the new government, the par­ty cannot afford to ignore this level of deep discontent from people who would previously have supported Labour. They pose a visible and vocal challenge to Sir Keir’s promise to unite the country and to serve all the people whether they voted Labour or not.

COMPARED TO OTHER large Western democracies, Britain has a good record of racial and ethnic harmo­ny. Multiculturalism has been the bedrock of our communities for a very long time and, while there is an unmis­takable undercurrent of racism in the support for the far-right, the vast majority of people are very comfortable living and working alongside people from different ethnic backgrounds. Rishi Sunak often remarked that while he was proud to be the first prime minister of Indian heritage in the UK, he was equally proud that it was widely seen as no big deal. The public had many good reasons for throwing him out of office after just one year and 255 days as prime minister but the colour of his skin was never one of them. A number of the new ministers sitting around the cabinet table have Indian forebears, including Foreign Secretary David Lammy, Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy and Justice Secre­tary Shabana Mahmood. Several of the leading contenders to take over from Rishi Sunak as leader of the Conservative Party are from immigrant families, including two with Indian heritage. Quite rightly, however, people are less interested in how they look and far more concerned about what they say and what they do.

It’s very rare for international affairs to be pivotal in a UK election, but on this occasion a significant number of voters were demonstrably calling for action on issues that the government cannot solve on its own. Whether it’s progress towards peace in the Middle East, solving the small boats crisis, delivering on net-zero, or securing the trade deals that can help deliver economic growth, cooperation with our allies will be essential to meeting the expectations of anxious voters across the country. The price of failure would be huge.

The public had many good reasons for throwing Rishi Sunak out of office after just one year and 255 days as prime minister but the colour of his skin was never one of them. A number of the new ministers sitting around the cabinet table have Indian forebears, including Foreign Secretary David Lammy,
Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy and Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood

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Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system regularly boosts the representation of the party out in front and makes it very hard for smaller parties and independents to break through. The success of the far-right Reform UK and the pro-Gaza independ­ents is significant, therefore, despite their relative impotence in the new parliament. Sir Keir will be equally cognisant that his mammoth 172-seat majority was achieved on the back of just 35 per cent of the popular vote.

Labour may have won the election handsomely but they have yet to win the hearts and minds of the electorate as a whole. If they are not to squander the power that is now in their hands, they must work diligently and tirelessly to show that ‘Change’ was not merely a conveniently intangible promise at election time. They have climbed an enormous electoral mountain to get where they are. Staying there will require every bit as much effort and determination. Fortunately for those of us who wish them well, they are facing that challenge with eyes wide open and with the energy and ability to succeed, and to show that after so many years of chaos and failure under the Conservatives, Labour can finally start to deliver on the nation’s priorities.

About The Author

Lance Price

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