Brandenburg Concerto

There were several takeaways, and some rather ironic, from Sunday’s Bundestag election that has thrown up a more-or-less clear winner but not a clear-enough mandate to form a clean coalition capable of lasting four years. For one, the one party least likely to be invited to government and share power has grabbed the most attention. For another, the formerly communist eastern Germany is now largely the pale blue of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD, or Alternative for Germany). And the extreme left Die Linke—a favourite of former East German citizens who were supporters of the Stalinist state—has jumped in the last couple of weeks to secure 8.8 per cent of the vote and thus cross the threshold (5 per cent) into parliament. And there’s no middle ground for Germany’s youth, with 18-25-year-olds mostly split between the AfD and the Left.

Friedrich Merz, the man likely to be chancellor, will try and build a collation with the Social Democrats (SPD) who have suffered their worst result ever at 16.4 per cent of the vote, with AfD edging them out of second place by a wide margin, having secured 20.8 per cent of the vote. The victorious Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), at 28.6 per cent, fell short of the 30 per cent they had expected and would have liked but will derive solace from the fact that AfD, while doubling its take from the last election, didn’t exceed expectations. Observers might feel breaching 20 per cent lets the far-right breathe down the conservatives’ necks but celebrations at AfD headquarters were somewhat subdued as the party had clearly expected more.

Merz’s job in coalition-building is made a little easier by the fact that the economic liberals, the Free Democratic Party (FDP), a member of the outgoing Olaf Scholz government, failed to breach the threshold to enter parliament at 4.3 per cent, thus easing the prospects of a two-party coalition. However, a lot depends now on Scholz and his defeated SPD. Together, CDU (208 seats) and SPD (120-1 seats) can form a grand centrist coalition in the 630-seat Bundestag and ideally Merz wouldn’t like to deal with the Greens, who have 11.6 per cent of the vote and 85 seats but are averse to nuclear energy and want an end to the internal combustion engine immediately.

At the heart of making the arithmetic of the ballot work is the mainstream parties’ stated policy to not work with AfD, having erected a Brandmauer or political firewall against it in the Bundestag. Although CDU had taken AfD’s help recently on a non-binding resolution concerning a new immigration law, Merz has not budged on his refusal to let AfD into government. Should that hold, AfD will nevertheless be difficult in opposition and its leader Alice Weidel is already looking forward to the next election, which she insists will not have to wait another four years.

The Bundestag election came at an inflection point for Europe and the world where the Trump administration appears to be cutting some of the strings binding the US to Europe, fundamentally altering the post-war and post-Cold War arrangement. US President Donald Trump’s steps towards abandoning Ukraine while insulting its war-time leader may herald leaving Europe to its fate too—meaning at the mercy of Russia and needing to compromise again with China. Merz has been vocal about Ukraine and has appeared to snub Trump’s overture congratulating him, saying his priority is “to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that we can achieve real independence from the US step by step.”

Matters have been made murkier by the unambiguous support for AfD from not only Elon Musk but also Vice President JD Vance. But Merz’s brave words barely hide the sinister challenge facing him, Germany and Europe. While immigration dominated the election campaign and was the single-biggest determinant of AfD’s performance, the real problem is the economy. Germany has stagnated, with an economic model left far behind by the rest of the EU as well as much of the world. It had missed the digital bus, Scholz threw out nuclear power at a time Russian gas was no longer guaranteed, and neither AfD nor the Greens, let alone SPD, seems to have any idea about how to redirect the economy.

Merz is the only front-ranking politician who recognises the structural problems with the German economy and once appeared to have a semblance of a plan to re-invent it. It remains to be seen if the pressures and tensions of building and running a coalition will let him undertake an overhaul project on the scale needed. To be less dependent on the US, Europe would need to invest militarily, that is, in its own security. That can’t happen without robust economies. It certainly can’t happen if its main economic engine stays stuck in the past. Moreover, it needs acknowledgement that the post-Cold War world order is finally over.

The CDU has won most of what is the former West Germany although it will be governing from Berlin surrounded by what’s left of Brandenburg. It’s the solo of the concerto but the rest of the orchestra is indeterminate.

AfDBundestag electionCDUCSUFriedrich MerzGermanySPDWeb Exclusive