OpenAI's Cannes Gambit: The $2.4 Billion Ad Bet Before the IPO

OpenAI made its Cannes Lions debut last week with a quiet but deliberate pitch to the advertising industry. The message, delivered by Dave Dugan—a former Meta executive brought in to lead the company's advertising efforts—was straightforward.

"Why does someone open the ChatGPT app?" Dugan asked, according to media reports. "They want to do research, they want to solve a problem, they want to get information. They're not coming to ChatGPT to scroll."

The remark appeared to draw a sharp contrast with the engagement-driven model that powers much of social media. More importantly, it offered a glimpse into how OpenAI is thinking about monetisation as it scales its business—and how it hopes to position ChatGPT as a different kind of advertising platform.

The timing is notable.

According to reports, OpenAI has confidentially filed paperwork with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, potentially laying the groundwork for a future public offering. While the company has not confirmed an IPO timeline, speculation around a listing has intensified as investors focus on how the artificial intelligence leader plans to convert explosive user growth into sustainable revenue.

Advertising is increasingly being viewed as one possible answer.

Some industry forecasts estimate OpenAI's advertising business could generate around $2.4 billion in revenue in 2026, with significantly larger ambitions over the longer term. Whether those projections materialise remains uncertain, but OpenAI's presence at Cannes suggested the company is actively building relationships with advertisers and agencies at a time when the economics of AI are under intense scrutiny.

The Intent Economy

Central to OpenAI's pitch is the idea that ChatGPT users behave differently from users on traditional digital platforms.

According to figures cited in industry reports, roughly one-fifth of ChatGPT queries carry commercial intent. Categories such as travel, retail, beauty, healthcare and financial services are reportedly drawing particular advertiser interest.

The argument is relatively simple. A user asking ChatGPT to compare running shoes, recommend a hotel in Barcelona or evaluate a financial product may already be in the process of making a decision.

When users ask detailed questions, compare options or seek recommendations through conversational AI, they are often much closer to a decision, Sahoo added. That creates a potentially valuable environment for advertisers, provided platforms can maintain user trust and preserve the integrity of responses.

That distinction could prove significant. Search advertising transformed the internet by allowing brands to reach consumers when they were actively looking for information. OpenAI is effectively arguing that conversational AI can move even closer to the decision-making process by helping users evaluate alternatives, narrow choices and seek recommendations.

OpenAI executives have reportedly said they assess advertising performance using metrics beyond clicks and impressions, including retention, query frequency and ad-dismissal rates. Dugan also reportedly noted that ad close-out rates have fallen since launch, suggesting users may be becoming more comfortable with advertising experiences inside AI-powered interfaces.

A Crowded Race

OpenAI is far from alone in chasing this opportunity.

Artificial intelligence dominated conversations across Cannes Lions this year, with major technology companies showcasing how generative AI could reshape advertising, content creation and consumer engagement.

Meta used the event to reinforce its AI advertising ambitions, highlighting new generative AI tools that allow marketers to automate creative production, personalise campaigns and improve ad performance. Chief executive Mark Zuckerberg has previously outlined a vision in which businesses can simply state their objectives and budgets while AI systems generate, test and optimise campaigns automatically.

Google, meanwhile, continues to integrate AI-powered features into Search and its advertising ecosystem, while Microsoft has been incorporating generative AI into Bing and its broader advertising business.

The result is an increasingly competitive race to define how advertising will function in an AI-first world.

"The economics are attractive because advertisers are reaching consumers closer to a decision point," said Sahoo. "However, the very reason users trust these platforms is that they perceive the recommendations as helpful and objective. If commercial interests begin to blur that perception, user behaviour could change quickly."

That challenge may be particularly acute for OpenAI. Unlike social media platforms, which have always been advertising businesses, ChatGPT's rapid adoption has been driven by its utility as a research and productivity tool. Users often interact with the platform as an assistant rather than a media destination.

As a result, introducing advertising without undermining trust could become one of the company's most important balancing acts.

Beyond Cannes

OpenAI's advertising ambitions also appear to be expanding internationally. Industry reports suggest the company has introduced advertising products in markets including Japan and South Korea while opening beta access to self-service advertising tools in the United Kingdom. India is also viewed by industry observers as a potentially important growth market, though the company has not announced a detailed rollout plan.

For investors, international expansion offers another test of whether conversational AI advertising can evolve into a global business rather than remain a niche experiment.

But as competition intensifies and expectations around growth continue to rise, convincing brands that ChatGPT represents a valuable new commercial channel could become a crucial part of OpenAI's next chapter—whether or not an IPO arrives on the timeline market observers currently expect.