US Midterms: Democrats Narrowly Lead Key Senate Races as Congress Hangs in Balance

Americans voted on Tuesday in midterm elections that will decide whether President Donald Trump keeps a Republican-controlled Congress for the final two years of his term, or faces a Democratic majority in one or both chambers.

All 435 House seats, 35 of the 100 Senate seats and 36 governorships are on the ballot. Most opinion polls suggest the night could go badly for the Republicans.

Republicans hold both chambers narrowly. In the House, Speaker Mike Johnson has 218 Republicans and one independent against 214 Democrats, with two vacancies, so Democrats need a net gain of three seats to reach 218.

In the Senate, which is split 53-47, Democrats need a net gain of four seats for Chuck Schumer to become majority leader. Majority Leader John Thune can lose three seats and still keep control, thanks to Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote. Of the 35 Senate seats up this year, 22 are held by Republicans.

FOUR RACES TO WATCH

The latest polling averages from Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin forecast, known as FLIPR, which weights each poll for quality, sample size and recency, show Democrats ahead in all four races, though only narrowly in some.

In Texas, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by 3.3 points, 49.8 per cent to 46.5.

In Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek leads Republican Ashley Hinson by 1.1 points, 47.7 per cent to 46.7.

In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton leads Republican incumbent Roger Marshall by 4.0 points, 49.9 per cent to 45.8.

In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown leads Republican Jon Husted by 3.0 points, 48.4 per cent to 45.4.

The final New York Times/Siena polls, published this week, had Talarico ahead 50 to 43 in Texas, Hamilton ahead 49 to 44 in Kansas, Brown ahead 49 to 44 in Ohio and Turek ahead 48 to 47 in Iowa. Brown, a former senator, is contesting a special election for the Ohio seat once held by Vance, which Husted holds by appointment.

Silver’s forecast gives Democrats a 77.7 per cent chance of winning the Senate, but warns that Texas, Ohio, Alaska and Maine are each “just a normal-sized polling error away from flipping.”

WHAT IT MEANS FOR TRUMP

Trump has called the midterms a referendum on the first 20 months of his second term and told supporters to vote as though he were on the ballot.

A Democratic House would mean investigations by committee chairs and more leverage over federal spending, including funding for the conflict with Iran. A Democratic Senate would give Schumer’s party power over the confirmation of judges and Cabinet nominees.

Democrats have a weakness of their own, in a Senate map that includes states Trump won by double digits. Winning the House but not the Senate would leave Republicans in control of confirmations.

WHEN TO EXPECT RESULTS

Polls in the first states close at 6 pm Eastern time. Results in close races, including Alaska’s ranked-choice count and California’s slow tally, could take days to finalise.

With inputs from ANI