Explained: Impact of Venezuela Crisis on Oil, Gold and Silver Prices

Despite the dramatic escalation in Venezuela, global commodity markets are unlikely to feel any meaningful shock.

Market experts say the crisis—triggered by a US military operation that led to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro—will have little impact on prices of gold, silver or crude oil, largely because Venezuela has been economically marginalised for years by sanctions and underinvestment.

Ajay Bagga, a banking and market expert, noted that Venezuela’s relevance to the global economy has shrunk sharply. The country’s GDP has collapsed from about $350 billion in 2012 to roughly $80 billion in 2025. In a $116 trillion global economy, he said, Venezuela no longer moves the needle.

Oil markets, too, are unlikely to be rattled. While Venezuela holds some of the world’s largest crude reserves, its oil infrastructure has deteriorated significantly. Current production stands at around 950,000 barrels per day, a fraction of global output of nearly 103 million barrels per day. Even a complete disruption of Venezuelan supply would barely register on global balances, Bagga said.

Precious metals have seen some volatility, but experts argue this has more to do with broader risk sentiment than Venezuela itself. Gold and silver prices are being driven by safe-haven demand, a trend also reflected in the strengthening US dollar. “The underlying factors shaping gold and silver markets have been in play since last year,” Bagga added.

Energy policy expert Narendra Taneja echoed this view, pointing out that Venezuelan crude is heavy oil that many global refineries are not equipped to process. As a result, Venezuela remains a small and specialised supplier, with most of its exports flowing to China.

In fact, Taneja suggested the longer-term impact could even be supply-positive. If US involvement leads to stabilisation and improved production, Venezuela could gradually raise output over the next year, adding barrels back into the global system rather than removing them.

For now, analysts agree on one thing: while Venezuela’s political crisis is geopolitically significant, it is unlikely to translate into turbulence for oil or precious metals markets anytime soon.