India will wait it out on Turkey

The decision to scrap Turkish ground handling firm Celebi’s security clearance that led to cancellation of its contracts with Indian airports was a firm signal following Turkish president Recep Erdogan openly backing the “brotherly people and state of Pakistan” following the Indian May 9 retaliatory attacks following the terrorist outrage at Pahalgam that resulted in the deaths of 26 tourists.

Erdogan followed this up with more support for Islamabad as “boycott Turkey” calls grew louder in India, praising Pakistan for what he called its “sensible and patient” policy, promising support through thick and thin. Delhi, Mumbai and Ahmedabad cancelled Celebi’s contracts a couple of days later and the matter is now in the courts which have been approached by the Turkish company.

It was not just the supply of military drones used against India during the May 7-10 hostilities that irked the Modi government. The drones, used to target Indian civilian and military facilities, might even have been seen as military sales just as Chinese and American hardware like J 10, J 17 and F 16 fighters.

But Erdogan’s repeated statements that gave Pakistan a clean chit for the Pahalgam terrorist attack and his unquestioning endorsement of its plea for a “neutral” probe were provocative and demanded a response which came by way of the actions that led to cancellation of Celebi contracts. Even China had not backed Pakistan in such fulsome tones while most Arab nations – wary of Islamic extremism – kept their own counsel.

Now that the message has been delivered, India may choose to pause and consider the situation and retain some room for manoeuvre with a country that has consistently rebuffed Indian concerns. This could mean there may not be any immediate move to hold back approval of renewal of air carrier Indigo’s wet lease contract for Boeing 777s with Turkish Airlines. Its call the government may not take just yet.

The likely reasoning in government is that pushing Turkey further into Pakistan’s embrace may not serve any useful purpose even if the trade between India and Turkey does not amount to much right now. The main drivers of trade are fruits, the airline sector and tourism. Given Turkey’s geo-political heft as its straddles Asia and Europe, the country will always retain a certain relevance for most nations.

The IMEC (India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor) skirts Turkey, something that has irked Erdogan given the country’s view of itself as the link between the two continents. Erdogan reacted to the IMEC proposal that has the enthusiastic backing of Saudi Arabia by saying there could not be a trade corridor without Turkey.

The IMEC proposal received a setback due to the October 7, 2024 Hamas attack on Israeli citizens and armed forces personnel but is not dead. It will be back on the radar as soon as the Gaza situation stabilises as Isreal is a key stakeholder and its participation along with the Saudis was an indication of the prospects of better ties between the two nations.

Turkey faces a crucial choice. If its further ups the ante, India will respond with more measures to reduce bilateral contact. On the other hand, the wide acceptance of IMEC would have told Erdogan that Turkey cannot take its role in Asia-Europe connectivity for granted even as plans for an alternate route through Iraq are just words as of now.

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