Endgame for Iran

Events have moved with unexpected pace and consequences since the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel. In less than two years, the Ayatollahs who are Hamas’ main backers suffered humiliating strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Though Iran was able to inflict damage in civilian areas in Israel, it had no clue about the US bombing of Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan. The debate over whether the bunker-buster bombs destroy uranium storage and processing facilities may take longer to settle, but Iran’s theocrats have plenty to chew on. For one, irrespective of any spin, it is evident Iran accepted a ceasefire after some ineffective strikes at US bases in Qatar and Iraq. The claim to have ‘equalled’ the US bombing is an attempt to declare victory and retreat, not unlike Pakistan’s efforts post Operation Sindoor. Though Iran threatens to violate the ceasefire, its rulers would have realised that its defences against Israel are inadequate. Iran is also vulnerable to assassinations of military officials and nuclear scientists. Further, the US decision to join Israel’s campaign has revealed that Iran’s strategic sites can be hit with impunity. It would have come home to the ruling theocracy that Iran is not likely to be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon. US President Donald Trump’s warnings about “regime change” could be rhetorical, but the paranoia of the Iranian ruling class may not be totally misplaced. It would be in Iran’s best interests to sincerely negotiate a more lasting peace. This will be a hard pill to swallow but it might be a more pragmatic path.

Operation Hamas

Amid continuing uncertainty, the 12-day Israel-Iran war seems to be winding down and has significant implications for Hamas. Despite the support of well-organised Left and Islamist groups, Hamas and the Palestine cause have suffered greatly. To begin with, the brutality of the October 7, 2023 attacks undermined the Palestinian case. Although Israel has been criticised for deaths in Gaza, its argument that there cannot be peace until Hamas is ousted from Gaza is hard to rebut. This means Israel’s operations against Hamas will continue while Iran’s support declines. The fact that Qatar—which hosts Hamas leaders—played a role in the Israel-Iran ceasefire is more bad news for the group.

Pakistan’s Nuclear Nightmare

Pakistan used the tensions over Iran to get onto the right side of the US, presumably by discretely offering intelligence, even as it condemned US President Donald Trump’s decision to bomb Iran not long after recommending him for a peace Nobel. This schizophrenic behaviour is not new. For long, Pakistan’s military appeased the US by periodically handing over top terrorists wanted by US agencies. The outrage over the US action reflects a desire to echo the street sentiment but the bombing does trigger the deepest insecurity of Pakistan’s generals—the possibility of a raid on their precious nukes.

Netanyahu’s Popularity Soars

While Israel’s media is critical of prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his popularity is undiminished. the decision to attack Iran—the point of convergence for all major threats the Jewish state faces—has been widely applauded. Israel’s cities suffered Iranian missile attacks but it is a price most
acknowledge was unavoidable. Netanyahu is proving to be a wartime leader and his popularity rebounded after the Hamas attacks against civilians and Israel’s military in October 2023.

Saudi Advantage

Saudi Arabia is keenly watching the outcome of the confrontation between Iran and the US and though there is an upsurge of support for Tehran in much of the Muslim world, the Saudis will not be unhappy. Iran bitterly contests Saudi Arabia’s claims to leadership, which are bolstered by the Saudi King’s status as the custodian of the two holy mosques in Mecca and Medina, by supporting Islamist militias and a strident anti-Israel stance. A diminution of Iran’s clout and capacities works to Saudi advantage as, in contrast to Iran, the House of Saud has pursued easing of social controls and better ties with Israel.

India’s Stakes

Amidst the tumult in the Middle East, Minister of External Affairs S Jaishankar received a call from Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi during which the minister stressed the need for an early return to diplomacy. After the US strikes on Iran, Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, calling for immediate de-escalation. Not only is the Persian Gulf a vital energy link but India is apprehensive about instability resulting from any attempts at ‘regime change’ in Tehran.

Rafale M To Come Sooner?

An analysis of Operation Sindoor and current uncertainties in India’s neighbourhood has led to determined steps to reduce the procurement time for military acquisitions. The timelines for many purchases and development of weapon systems can stretch for years, defeating the immediacy of military needs. The norm, even for major deals, is being sought to be fixed at around two years. In an interview with news agency ANI, Defence Secretary Rajesh Singh said this had been achieved in the case of the Rafale Marine version for the Indian Navy.

Benjamin NetanyahugeopoliticsIndia-PakistanIndian politicsIran-Israel conflict