Global Agriculture to Stabilise in 2026, but Supply Gaps Persist: ING

The global agriculture sector is set to stabilise in 2026, but unevenly. Soybeans and corn face tightening supply, wheat and sugar are in surplus, cocoa prices have collapsed, and coffee may cool next year as output recovers, ING’s Commodities Outlook 2026 shows.  

According to the report, the sector is expected to stabilise after recent volatility, though sharp divergences will persist across crops as supply shifts, trade politics, and weather patterns redraw the balance.  

In soybeans, the market is tightening. Global demand is set to hit a record in the 2025–26 season even as production slips year-on-year. The squeeze is largely driven by a pullback in US soybean planting amid renewed trade tensions between Washington and Beijing. US output is forecast to fall 2.8% to just under 116 million tonnes, despite only a modest decline in planted area.

Brazil, meanwhile, continues to consolidate its dominance. The world’s largest exporter is expected to post another record harvest of at least 175 million tonnes, reinforcing its position as the backbone of global soybean supply.

Corn tells a different story. Prices have been under pressure this year due to record output, but the report flags a sharper tightening ahead. The global corn market could slip into a deficit of about 39 million tonnes in the 2026–27 season as yields normalise and acreage shifts back toward soybeans, especially if US–China trade relations improve.

Wheat remains an outlier in abundance. Global production is projected to rise 3.5% year-on-year to nearly 829 million tonnes, lifting stocks by about 10 million tonnes to a record 271 million tonnes.

Soft commodities show even starker contrasts. Sugar prices have slumped more than 20% in 2025 as the market swings from deficit to a surplus of roughly 7 million tonnes—the largest since 2017–18. Cocoa has fared worse, emerging as one of the poorest-performing commodities, with prices collapsing as improved yields and plantation expansion, particularly in Ecuador, push the market back into surplus.

Coffee, however, has bucked the trend. Arabica prices surged over 25% this year on weather disruptions in Brazil and tight inventories. But relief may be in sight. Stronger output from Brazil and a robusta rebound in Vietnam are expected to ease supply constraints in 2026, aided by the rollback of US tariffs on coffee imports.

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