Calling Trudeau’s Bluff

IN MID-FEBRUARY, THE Canadian High Commission in India organised an informal discussion on the Indian elections then due in a couple of months. The object of the exercise was to better understand the election scenario and campaign issues and attendees were invited to share per­spectives with Deputy High Commissioner Stewart Wheeler, who had recently arrived in India. The discussion saw a degree of unanimity on the likelihood of the Modi government return­ing to office and this was perhaps the key takeaway the sea­soned diplomat was looking for. It was a critical question for the Justin Trudeau government which had a rocky relationship with New Delhi and needed to figure out if the government would change or should Ottawa prepare for more of the same. As it turned out, though the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) fell short of a majority in Lok Sabha, it was comfortably placed to form a government yet again and Modi was back as prime minister for a third term.

Less than five months after Modi 3.0 was sworn in and well short of completing a year into his current assignment, Wheeler found himself outside South Block after having received the Indian government’s directive to leave the country with five other Canadian diplomats. In usual circumstances diplomats avoid unformatted media inter­actions. But the need to make a political point was obvious when Wheeler told reporters on October 14, “Canada has provided credible, irrefutable evidence of ties between agents of the Government of India and the murder of a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil. Now, it is time for India to live up to what it said it would do and look into all those allegations.” The statement sidestepped the repeated Indian assertion that Canada has not shared evidence linking its official agencies or diplomats to the June 2023 murder of Khalistani leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar, the Canadian citizen at the centre of the India-Canada row. Oddly enough, while Canadian of­ficials claim evidence has been shared with the Indian government, at other times inquiries are fended off on grounds that investigative agencies like the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) do not share details of ongoing cases with the political executive.

Already under stress, India-Canada ties unravelled rapidly af­ter Trudeau ran into Modi in Laos on October 11 where the Indian prime minister was attending the ASEAN-India summit. There was, according to official sources, no meeting. It was more in the nature of a brush past in the lounge area and Modi responded to Trudeau’s bid to engage him with a gesture suggesting that discus­sion could take place later in an appropriate setting. Yet Trudeau soon claimed he had a “brief exchange” and airily claimed to have told Modi that there is work that needs to be done. “The safety of Canadians and upholding the rule of law is the fundamental re­sponsibility of any Canadian government, and that is what I will stay focused on,” he said. The inflated claims of the interac­tion went down poorly with Modi who is known to take a dim view of attempts to extract unwarranted leverage from such meetings. Just about a year earlier though, Trudeau and Modi had indeed met in New Delhi on the sidelines of the G20 summit. At the time, the Ministry of External Af­fairs (MEA) issued a few para­graphs that were unsparingly direct: “He [Modi] conveyed our strong concerns about continuing anti-India activi­ties of extremist elements in Canada. They are promoting secessionism and inciting violence against Indian dip­lomats, damaging diplomatic premises, and threatening the Indian community in Canada and their places of worship. The nexus of such forces with organised crime, drug syndicates and human trafficking should be a concern for Canada as well. It is essential for the two countries to cooperate in dealing with such threats,” the MEA said.

A few days later, the MEA said it had been informed by the Cana­dian government on October 13 that Indian High Commissioner Sanjay Verma and other diplomats are “persons of interest” in an ongoing investigation which, though not named, involved the Nijjar murder. Giving a go-by to diplomatic niceties, the MEA said it rejected the “preposterous imputations” and said the Canadian al­legations reflect the vote-bank politics driving the Trudeau govern­ment’s political agenda. The reference was to Trudeau’s pandering to Khalistani groups whose statements inciting violence against Hindu Canadians—who are also Canadian citizens—and Indian diplomats are indulged as freedom of expression. Their actions have often enough gone beyond words, with Khalistan supporters obstructing Indian diplomats in public spaces and holding threatening demonstrations on diplomatic premises. Trudeau’s dependence on the Sikh vote has seen him seek out New Demo­cratic Party leader Jagmeet Dhaliwal, who has offered and with­drawn support at will. Recently, Dhaliwal withdrew support to the Trudeau government in a bid to distance himself from public disaffection over the rising cost of living and lack of housing. At the same time, Dhaliwal has called for sanctions against India and Trudeau has little choice—assuming he was willing to consider an alternative course—but to continue promoting the interests of Sikh extremists. A mid-September report of Canadian public opinion by global consultant Ipsos makes grim reading for Trudeau. His approval slipped a further 4 per cent from June to a new low of 33 per cent and rival Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre had a 45 per cent rating for being prime minister. The next national election is due by October 2025, and electoral reverses in Liberal Party citadels Montreal and Toronto in recent months have raised speculation about Trudeau calling elections sooner. The row with India might be the diversionary tactic he is looking for to deflect attention from his falling ratings.

If Trudeau is struggling to arrest a slide in his electoral prospects, Modi has bounced back after the Lok Sabha polls with a morale-boosting victory in Haryana and a BJP near-sweep of the Jammu region’s Hindu seats in the Jammu & Kashmir election. There is renewed confidence in the government’s decision-making and the prime minister is in no mood to cater to Trudeau’s bid to play to the gallery in the Nijjar case. The MEA left no doubt about its views on Trudeau, saying the Canadian leader has simply got off on the wrong foot with India since 2018 when his visit rebounded to his discomfort. The reference was to the controversy about in­vitations to Jaspal Atwal, a Khalistani, previously convicted in the failed murder of a Punjab minister, at two events during Trudeau’s visit. Toasted as an icon of ‘liberal’ politics, Trudeau has not made much headway in India. His relations with Modi, who enjoys a good rapport with most world leaders, remained frosty. The Canadian prime minister has repeatedly raked up the Nijjar case since he went public in September last year levelling allegations against Indian of­ficials. His family photographs in India, in Indian attire, have come across more like fancy dress displays than cultural appreciation and his inability to check the aggressive actions of Khalistani supporters soured ties to the point of a breakdown. His Delhi trip for the G20 summit last year was an unqualified disaster, the blunt message he received from Modi aggravated by a technical snag in his aircraft that left him stranded for an additional 36 hours. An Indian offer to lend him transport only seemed to rub it in.

 

Trudeau’s strategy in claiming that top Indian diplomats in Can­ada were involved in the plot to murder Nijjar is intended to present the Indian government as one that targets ‘dissenters’ abroad like autocratic regimes accused of disposing of critics. Canada’s refer­ence to the Five Eyes intelligence network aims to raise India’s dis­comfort levels and complicate its relations with the UK, the US, Australia and New Zealand by claiming that evidence implicating India has been shared and that these countries are “concerned” about the developments. The script plays to narratives that accuse BJP of fostering “majoritarian” politics and argue India has wit­nessed a “democratic backsliding” in its institutions. In the process, Nijjar’s shady past and the violence and rivalries within Khalistani groups, their nexus with organised crime, and the subversion of gurudwaras for political ends find no mention in the public state­ments of Canadian officials.

Over the past decade, Canada has become a safe haven for wanted members of criminal gangs planning and executing ex­tortion and murders in India and elsewhere. While gangsters like Lawrence Bishnoi are in jail in India, their associates in Canada are hardly impeded from carrying out crimes on his behalf. The free­dom of operation they enjoy is an important reason why Bishnoi’s activities continue despite his incarceration. Bishnoi has operated through associates like Goldy Brar to terrorise his victims. Rather than investigating and checking their activities, the Canadian government now accuses India of using the Bishnoi gang with an RCMP officer claiming the group is connected to “Indian agents”. So far, neither has any member of the Bishnoi gang been arrested in Canada nor has any light been shed on the “agents” said to be working with or for India.

A US indictment of an Indian citizen and the alleged role of an Indian official in a failed bid to assassinate Sikhs for Justice (SFJ) leader Gurpatwant Singh Pannun have followed a different path, perhaps due to the preparedness of American and Indian governments to work out solutions without taking recourse to public commentary. In the Pannun case, India has accepted that evidence has been shared and an investigation is under way while an Indian citizen, Nikhil Gupta, who was detained in Prague has now been extradited to the US. An Indian team was set to visit the US in connection with the investigation (at the time of writing). The manner in which Trudeau brought up allegations targeting India leaves no room for quiet diplomacy. Rather, with the Canadian prime minister himself upping the ante, it is apparent the intention is to make the Nijjar case the cause of a full-blown confrontation with an eye on the Liberal Party’s domestic politics in a province like Ontario or a city like Toronto. The need to shore up support is more urgent as, despite returning as prime minister, Trudeau did not get a majority in 2019 and his ratings have not only not recovered but are pointing to the likelihood of an inglorious exit. The possible consequences of his actions have not been missed by commentators in the Canadian press who stress that the government has been unable to provide any compelling evidence beyond insinuations and is putting trade worth billions of dollars at risk. They point out that Trudeau is attempting to make out a “Modi versus Canada” clash while the matter boils down to Khalistani separatists who happen to be the Canadian leader’s allies and supporters. A press conference addressed by Jagmeet Singh, where he called for sanctions against India, ended abruptly after he refused to entertain questions. Reports in the Canadian media reveal Trudeau’s dependence on Sikh separatists with a despatch in The Globe and Mail stating that India had in 2018 refused to allow the leader to travel to Punjab unless he agreed to a meeting with then Punjab Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh who had handed over a list of 10 individuals wanted for terrorist and criminal activities in India.

So far, major Canadian investors like pension funds have not moved to reduce or withdraw from India which they see as a growth area. But it is unclear if sanctions could alter the situation. The view in New Delhi is that it is for the Canadian government to decide its course of action and any decision to curtail or block trade and investment would be a double-edged sword. The Canadian economy benefits as much as India does from investment in Indian businesses as it does from Indian firms working in Canada. It does seem clear though that the Modi government has run out of patience and any substantial improvement in bilateral ties will most probably await the outcome of the next election. If Trudeau does return to office, he might be relieved of the immediate pressures of catering to voting blocs, thus allowing a restoration of some semblance of normalcy in bilateral ties. If Poilievre wins, it would almost certainly lead to an upturn in relations. In a recent social media post, Poilievre spoke of attending Dusshera celebrations at the Hindu Sabha Mandir: “Celebrated the victory of good over evil”. He also posted pictures of the event. About 2.3 per cent of Canada’s population identifies itself as Hindu and while not all are Conservative Party supporters—in fact the community might have traditionally favoured the Liberals—the aggression and violence of Khalistani groups could mould their choices. Indian Canadians are concerned about the negative projection of India by the Trudeau government and feel the impact of the opinions of relatives back home as Canada is viewed with suspicion and resentment in India. Unlike earlier years, there is a strong rightwing Indian constituency on social media agitated by Trudeau’s politics and it has not held back in attacking him.

The dramatic expulsion of Canadian diplomats following the recall of the Indian high commissioner and senior staff on grounds that they face threat of violence marks a new chapter in Indian diplomacy. Such incidents have been more typical of relations with Pakistan rather than with a developed Western nation and are a comment on the path the Trudeau government has chosen to tread. Though the facts of the case, including the specifics of the plot to murder Nijjar, who was shot dead in a parking lot, are important, the dynamics of the India-Canada showdown have taken a different path altogether. While Trudeau finds its expedient to directly accuse Indian diplomats with leaked media reports even alleging the role of political higher-ups, he might not have a measure of Modi who has run out of patience with Ottawa’s India-baiting. Canada’s membership of the Five Eyes alliance makes India’s task more challenging but Delhi has built solid political and economic ties with many Western nations as was demonstrated by its ability to ensure the G20 summit in 2023 adopted a consensus document despite differences over the Ukraine war. In the coming weeks, India can be expected to leverage its influence not just in Western capitals but in Asia and Africa as well where it has worked to build common viewpoints. It is unlikely that any major partner of India, or for that matter of Canada, would want to see what is essentially a bilateral spat become a cause for disruption of relations with the Indian government. It does not make practical sense to do so.

British ColumbiadiplomacyIndia-Canada relationshipJustin TrudeauKhalistani groupsLawrence BishnoiNarendra ModiS JaishankarSanjay Kumar VermaSurrey