US Midterms: How Did Roy Cooper Flip North Carolina, and Can Democrats Take the Senate?

North Carolina voted for Donald Trump three times. It also elected Roy Cooper governor twice, both times on the same ballot as Trump. On November 3, Cooper won statewide again, this time taking a US Senate seat that Republicans had held since 2015.

That history helps explain why Democrats wanted Cooper in this race. They needed a candidate who had already won in North Carolina while Republicans were winning the presidential vote. Cooper had done it twice.

What happened in North Carolina?

The Associated Press called the race for Cooper over Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chair whom Trump backed. The seat opened when Republican Senator Thom Tillis chose against seeking a third term after clashing with Trump over his tax and spending bill. Republicans had to defend the seat without a sitting senator on the ballot.

Cooper came into the race with four statewide wins for attorney general and two for governor. Whatley was running for elected office for the first time. In a state where unaffiliated voters outnumber registered members of either major party, Cooper already had a record to campaign on and years of experience appealing beyond the Democratic base.

What did Cooper ask voters to vote for?

He called his campaign swing across North Carolina the “Make Stuff Cost Less” tour. He talked about household expenses, healthcare and housing, and pointed to his record on Medicaid expansion as governor. Whatley stressed crime and immigration and drew on Trump’s support. WUNC reported that the economy ranked above crime in polling of North Carolina voters.

That choice of message fit the mood captured by early national voter surveys. Reuters reported that nearly nine in ten respondents described the cost of living as a major or crucial factor in their vote. That finding gives Cooper’s campaign a national context. To establish how much affordability drove his win, we would need North Carolina evidence that separates voters’ economic concerns from their views of the candidates and their usual party loyalties.

Why did Republican groups move money out of North Carolina?

Weeks before voting ended, national Republican groups pulled television ads from the state and redirected resources to other races, including Kansas, WUNC reported. Trump and Vice President JD Vance continued campaigning in North Carolina.

The spending decision shows the trade-off Republicans faced. More airtime in North Carolina might have helped Whatley narrow the gap. Moving money to Kansas gave Republicans more room to defend another Senate seat, where incumbent Roger Marshall faced Democrat Adam Hamilton. With several seats under pressure at once, the party had to decide where another dollar could do the most to protect its majority.

How much closer are Democrats to Senate control?

Cooper’s win counts as a gain because he is taking a Republican-held seat. Jon Ossoff’s re-election in Georgia and Chris Pappas’s win in New Hampshire count as holds because Democrats already held both seats. That distinction is the difference between winning three races and adding one seat to the party’s column.

Democrats and the two independents who caucus with them entered the election with 47 seats. They need four net gains to reach 51. On the race calls verified for this edition, Cooper supplied the first. Democrats would need three more pickups if they hold their remaining seats. A loss in a state they currently hold, such as Michigan, would raise that requirement by one. At 50–50, Vance can break ties.

Maine, Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Kansas and Alaska are among the Republican-held seats to watch. Early returns in Texas and Ohio showed Democratic leads, with counting still underway in the ABC snapshot reviewed for this piece. The next race call that changes the Senate arithmetic will be a party gain or loss.