India-Israel Alliance: The Forthcoming “Purim” War

As Prime Minister Modi leaves Tel Aviv today on 26 February, probably only 5 people in the world, apart from the proverbial fly on the wall, really know what this visit was actually about. Of these 5, 2 reside in India; 2 reside in Israel and 1 resides in the US. No guesses for who they are.

It is suspected that in the event of intense kinetic warfare in the Middle- East, a medical aerobridge will be rapidly instituted between Israel and India, whereby IAF C 17’s and/or IL 76’s will transport wounded Israeli military personnel and civilians to India for Medicare. Munitions like artillery shells will also flow from east to west. This is merely a logical suspicion.

Why has the Indian Prime Minister unequivocally pledged rock-hard support to the politically beleaguered Israeli Prime Minister when on 20 February Brent crude closed at $71.76 per barrel, roughly $10 above where it would trade absent the Iran risk premium? Earlier, on 19 February, 10 million barrels of Brent crude June 2026, $ 100 calls were exchanged. The skew in Brent calls has stuck on for 14 consecutive sessions and is the longest since Iran launched 200 ballistic missiles on Israel on 1 October 2024. The USO call-to-put volume reached 2.00, perched atop the 99^th percentile of its annual range. This indicates that global markets view the current uncertainty as extremely grave for the world economy and are pricing a scenario where kinetic action does not simply shut down the Strait of Hormuz for weeks but triggers a cascade where both the strait and transportation of Iranian crude are removed from the scene for years. This is tantamount to declaring war on China as it will gravely undermine the Chinese economy.

Why is the movement of approximately 500 US military aircraft in the Persian Gulf on ADS-B ( Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast)? This is a modern satellite-based aviation surveillance technology where aircraft determine their precise location via GNSS (GPS) and automatically broadcast this data—along with altitude, speed, and identification—to ground stations and other aircraft. What is the reason to publicise this?

In the Persian Gulf theatre there are 2 US Navy aircraft carriers; 500 aircraft; 11 F-22s for the first time deployeds in Israel; and C-17s, all on ADS-B. This buildup is the most visible American military operation since 2003. Every OSINT account tracks it. Every officer of the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence (VAJA/MOIS) as well as the IRGC Quds Force monitors it. Is the Persian Gulf merely the noise and not the signal?

Diego Garcia is the signal. F-16s have landed in large numbers under cover of darkness at Diego Garcia. Chinese satellite images from 24 February shows new developments. F-16 Fighting Falcons on the tarmac parked side by side along two P-8A Poseidon’s; a C-5M Super Galaxy, a C-17, and three KC-135 tankers. Diego Garcia is preparing for every mission category simultaneously.

F-16s do not deploy to a coral island 3,000 kilometres from Iran for deterrence. They deploy when you need combat air patrol protecting high-value assets at the base itself, or when you need sortie generation beyond the range of every Iranian ballistic missile that can reach Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Al Udeid base in Qatar sits within Iran’s Shahab-3 range. Diego Garcia does not. It is the one base Iran cannot touch. Can one presume that the Diego Garcia based F-16s will escort IAF transports in international airspace to Indian airspace over locations in south-west India?

The UK cannot say no to F-16’s at Diego Garcia. British Prime Minister Starmer denied strike authorization from British territory. The aircraft are landing anyway. Either the US has consent it will not publicize, or it has decided operational necessity overrides British objections. Meanwhile, China photographs every arrival and publishes it, handing Iran real-time intelligence on the one base that determines whether the refuelling corridor from the F 22 home base in Missouri, USA to Fordow, Iran stays open. The Gulf buildup is what you are meant to see. Diego Garcia is what you are meant to miss.

This is an extremely well-planned operation, if true?

And what is the quid pro quo? Does Mossad go easy on leaking further instalments of the Epstein Files?

And what of the consequences? Have they been war gamed?

Very clearly the war is against Shia Iran. There are at least 40 million Shia’s in the state of Uttar Pradesh; there are at least 2,000 Shia Imambaras/ Mosques in the state. What is their thinking?

Who is monitoring visits of official Iranian diplomats to Lucknow and the activities of VAJA/ MOIS/IRGC QUDS operatives in UP where assembly elections are due next year? The founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s grandfather was a Shia cleric from Lucknow who migrated to Iran in the 19^th century. Memories are long; ties are strong.

Defiance is the buzzword.

Steve Witkoff, the top US Iran negotiator currently in Geneva, has said in plain language on the record, that the US doesn’t understand why the Iranians are not afraid of the Americans.

That sentence is not a diplomatic slip. It is a confession. It tells you that every CIA assessment that drove this crisis, every prediction about how Iran would respond to two carrier strike groups, 500 fighter jets, and a 15-day deadline from the president of the US, was built on a foundational misreading of Iranian psychology, so profound, that the man closest to the decision doesn't even know how to process it.

The New York Times reported that Khamenei has designated successors throughout his administration across the military, government, and intelligence services with instructions that the fight must continue regardless of what happens to any individual leader. Iran's foreign minister confirmed a draft proposal would be ready in days, but significant gaps remain on uranium enrichment, Iran's missile program, and sanctions relief. Trump is curious. His envoy can't explain it. And the 85-year-old supreme leader who won't surrender has just put four layers of successors in place with standing orders to keep fighting after he's gone. Successors who have been given the same instruction he received from his own mentor. This is worth dying for.

Sanctions have battered Iran's economy, contributing to a crisis that sparked protests in December 2025, that spiralled into calls for the fall of the regime. Iran, flouting warnings by Trump, cracked down on the demonstrations with mass killings. Regime forces are confirmed to have taken the lives of some 7,000 protesters. But estimates of the total reach into the tens of thousands. Seven thousand, of its own citizens killed in a crackdown. And the government did not waver, did not negotiate, did not offer a concession. It crushed the uprising and then told its commanders, "If America attacks, you know your orders. Keep fighting."

A government that will absorb 7,000 dead civilians rather than compromise is not a government that will surrender because aircraft carriers and land-based aircraft are visible on satellite. It is a government that has already calculated the maximum possible cost of resistance. Total destruction, assassination of its leaders, American troops on Iranian soil, and decided that cost is still preferable to what Trump is asking it to accept.

Witkoff sitting in a Fox News studio discovered this live on air. And the look on his face, the verbal stumbling, the word he pulled back from, the phrase he couldn't quite finish, told the viewer everything about how badly the US intelligence community has failed to answer the most basic question in strategic planning. Who exactly are they dealing with?

It appears that after Khamenei, the man in charge will be Ali Larijani Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran.

He is not just a senior political figure. He is the designated shadow governor; the man Khamenei has chosen to run Iran if every named official in the formal command structure is killed or captured. He is known to every major international interlocutor. He is the person who would pick up the phone after the bombs stop falling and negotiate whatever comes next from a position of an Iran that has been bombed and is still standing, still fighting, and still governed.

America's decapitation strategy assumes that killing the named leadership creates a vacuum that produces chaos, which produces an opening for regime change. Larajani's role as shadow governor means there is no vacuum. There's a prepositioned, internationally recognized, legally authorized successor government ready to function the morning after any decapitation strike. The chaos America is betting on never materializes because Iran built a system specifically designed to prevent it.

If Iran arrives with nothing at today’s Geneva talks, or arrives with a proposal that does not meet zero uranium enrichment, the diplomatic failure is now documented, witnessed, and internationally legible. The legal and political predicate for military action is established in front of the global press corps. Then comes 2 March 2026. Purim.

Purim 2026 is a joyous Jewish festival celebrated from sunset on March 2 to nightfall on March 3, 2026 (with Jerusalem celebrating on March 3–4), commemorating the salvation of the Jewish people in ancient Persia from Haman's plot against them. It is characterized by reading the Book of Esther, wearing costumes, giving charity, sending food gifts (mishloach manot), and eating triangular hamantaschen pastries. 

Remember the Yom Kippur war in 1973?

Multiple analysts, have flagged this date as a speculated strike window. The symbolism would be unmistakable and deliberate. That gives a seven-day sequence. Prime Minister Modi provided diplomatic cover through Wednesday 25 February. Geneva provides the documented failure Thursday evening. Thursday through Sunday are preparation and final authorization. Monday 2 March is Purim and it ends in Jerusalem on 4 March, which is celebrated in India as Holi this year.

And finally, the US Navy’s 5^th fleet’s home port of Bahrain is empty. There is a doctrine in naval warfare called “fleet dispersal prior to hostilities.” The principle is simple: you never let an adversary catch your fleet concentrated within missile range before you initiate operations. You disperse first. Then you act. Pearl Harbor was the lesson. Every naval commander since has internalized it. When your adversary’s ally starts publicly documenting your pre-strike dispersal pattern, they are not informing you. They are warning you that the element of surprise no longer exists.