Is Global Warming Speeding Up? Scientists Say Earth's Heating Has Entered a Dangerous New Phase

Global warming may no longer be following the slow, steady trajectory scientists once feared. It could now be accelerating.

A new study by researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), published in Geophysical Research Letters and reported by ScienceDaily, concludes that the Earth's long-term warming rate has increased significantly since around 2015. After removing short-term natural influences such as El Niño, volcanic eruptions and changes in solar activity, researchers found the planet is now warming at about 0.35°C per decade, compared with less than 0.2°C per decade between 1970 and 2015. The findings raise fresh concerns that the world could breach the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C warming threshold sooner than previously expected.

What exactly have scientists discovered?

Researchers say they have found the clearest evidence yet that global warming has accelerated. According to the study, the Earth's long-term warming rate has nearly doubled over the past decade. After accounting for natural climate variations, global temperatures have been rising at roughly 0.35°C per decade since around 2015, compared with just under 0.2°C per decade during the previous four decades. The researchers say this is the fastest sustained rate of warming since instrumental records began in 1880.

How did scientists separate climate change from natural weather patterns?

The team removed the short-term effects of El Niño, volcanic eruptions and changes in solar activity from global temperature records. These natural events can temporarily warm or cool the planet, making it difficult to identify the underlying long-term trend. Once these influences were filtered out, the acceleration in warming became clearly visible across all five major global temperature datasets compiled by NASA, NOAA, HadCRUT, Berkeley Earth and ERA5.

How reliable are these findings?

The researchers say the evidence carries more than 98% statistical certainty. In other words, there is an extremely high probability that the faster warming rate is real and not the result of random fluctuations or short-term climate variability.

Does the study explain why global warming is accelerating?

No. The research was designed to detect whether warming has sped up, not to identify the precise cause. However, the authors note that climate models have long suggested that warming can accelerate during certain periods as greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase.

What does this mean for the Paris Agreement?

It could shorten the timeline. Lead author Stefan Rahmstorf says that if the current pace of warming continues, the world could exceed the Paris Agreement's long-term 1.5°C warming limit before 2030. Scientists caution, however, that crossing the threshold requires sustained warming over several years, not just one exceptionally hot year.

Were 2023 and 2024 still the hottest years after adjusting the data?

Yes. Even after removing the warming influence of El Niño and heightened solar activity, 2023 and 2024 remained the warmest years since modern temperature records began. That suggests the record-breaking temperatures cannot be explained by natural climate cycles alone.

What determines what happens next?

The researchers say the answer largely depends on carbon emissions. According to the study, how quickly the planet continues to warm will depend on how rapidly the world reduces carbon dioxide emissions from coal, oil and natural gas. The faster emissions fall, the greater the chance of slowing the long-term warming trend.

(With inputs from ANI)