India-US trade deal: Trump says ‘pretty close’, EAM Jaishankar cautions against calling it done

How close is the India-US trade deal to becoming reality? After months of negotiations, tariff disputes and uncertainty over Russian oil purchases, officials on both sides are signalling progress. But External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has offered a reminder that optimism is not the same as a signed agreement.

Speaking at the NDTV World Summit in New Delhi on Thursday, Jaishankar said the negotiations were moving towards completion, while cautioning that the final stretch could still throw up challenges. "Well, look, it's never done till it's done."

His remarks come after US President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio also expressed confidence that the long-pending pact could be concluded soon.

How close is the India-US trade deal to being signed?

Jaishankar said negotiators were working through the remaining hurdles but declined to reveal the details. "What you've heard not just from Secretary Rubio, but from Minister Piyush Goyal, from others, from me, is that we are moving towards it. But, as I said, often the last mile or the penultimate miles do pose their challenges. I think the [negotiating] teams are working through them now."

He added: "If you're asking me to tell you what exactly those challenges are, I'm sorry I won't. That's for the negotiators to sort out."

The latest comments follow Rubio’s October 20 meeting with Jaishankar in Mumbai. Speaking to reporters, Rubio said the countries were close to an agreement, with only a small number of issues left to resolve. In an interview with The Indian Express, he said the deal could be weeks, rather than months, away, while stressing that the wording must be agreed upon by both sides.

Trump, meanwhile, said on October 20 that the countries were “pretty close” and suggested the agreement would be “a much different kind of deal” from previous US trade pacts, without explaining what that would mean in practice.

Why has the India-US trade agreement taken so long?

India and the US began pursuing a bilateral trade agreement in February 2025. Negotiations have been complicated by disagreements over tariffs, market access, agricultural products and industrial goods, alongside wider tensions over India’s purchases of Russian oil.

The two countries announced a framework for the first phase of the agreement in February 2026, but changes in US tariff policy prompted further discussions. As The Indian Express reported, negotiators have since been working to bridge differences over the terms and the tariff treatment of Indian exports.

What do Russian oil and energy have to do with the deal?

Energy has become an important part of the wider diplomatic conversation. During his India visit, Rubio said greater energy trade with the US could help India diversify its supply chains. He also described India as a refining “superpower” and discussed the possibility of Indian refineries processing more Venezuelan crude.

Rubio said India had made progress in diversifying its energy sources. His remarks followed Washington’s recent pause on certain proposed tariffs linked to purchases of Russian energy, easing one complication in the negotiations.

What happens next for the India-US trade deal?

The Ministry of External Affairs said Jaishankar and Rubio reviewed cooperation across trade, defence, technology and energy security, reaffirming their commitment to the wider strategic partnership.

For now, the key question is whether the remaining differences can be resolved and translated into an agreed text. The latest statements suggest momentum, but no final trade deal has been announced.

Jaishankar’s caution remains the most important caveat: until both sides settle the terms and formally complete the agreement, the finish line is not yet crossed.

(With inputs from ANI)