AI Could Boost US Economy but Squeeze Jobs and Wages, Anthropic Warns

Artificial intelligence could make the US economy substantially richer by 2030 without delivering better pay or greater job security to knowledge workers, according to a new economic outlook from Anthropic.

The company’s Economics team has modelled three scenarios—modest, substantial and extreme—based on how quickly AI capabilities improve, how widely the technology is adopted and how much productivity rises.

All three point to higher economic output. The sharper differences concern who benefits and what happens to workers whose tasks can be automated.

“AI drives GDP growth in all scenarios, although the scale varies enormously depending on the scenario,” Anthropic said in its report, “Scenarios for our Economic Future”.

What could AI do to economic growth by 2030?

In the modest scenario, AI delivers gradual gains comparable to the internet’s economic impact, keeping growth within the historical range of technological advances.

The substantial scenario envisages AI performing half of all knowledge work by 2030, with the economy growing at roughly twice its normal rate. US GDP would reach $36.3 trillion that year, 8.3 per cent above the level projected without AI.

Under the extreme scenario, GDP could reach $44.4 trillion by 2030, or 32.4 per cent above the baseline. AI would become more productive than humans across most knowledge-work tasks and perform nearly all such work autonomously.

Annual GDP growth could reach 15 per cent in that scenario, a pace that would allow the economy to double in size every 4.5 years. These are modelled possibilities, with outcomes dependent on the development and adoption of AI.

Why could knowledge workers lose out?

A larger economy would not necessarily translate into stronger wage growth for everyone. Under the substantial scenario, knowledge workers’ wages could remain broadly flat even as workers in other occupations receive stronger increases.

The extreme scenario carries greater risks. Rapid automation could significantly increase unemployment and lower wages for workers in affected occupations, despite the surge in economic output.

“In the extreme scenario, the gains from a rapidly expanding economy are unevenly distributed,” the report said.

Moving into another profession may also prove difficult for displaced workers. Anthropic noted that such transitions require new skills and suitable employment opportunities, creating obstacles to finding work elsewhere.

More of the gains could flow to capital

The report also points to a potential redistribution of economic income away from labour and towards capital.

Currently, about 60 per cent of output goes to workers and 40 per cent to capital, according to the report. In its extreme AI scenario, labour’s share could fall to 45.2 per cent, while capital’s rises to 54.8 per cent.

That shift would leave capital receiving the larger share of a rapidly expanding economy, alongside pressure on employment and wages in knowledge-intensive occupations.

“The future is not predetermined,” Anthropic said.

The eventual outcome, it stressed, will depend on AI capabilities, adoption decisions by businesses and workers, and how the technology’s financial benefits are distributed.

In the most transformative scenario, the central challenge could become sharing the gains widely enough while limiting the disruption caused by job displacement.

With inputs from ANI