The Electoral Carnival

THE GENERAL ELECTION of 2024 will be the 15th occasion I will have tracked the fortune of political parties. My interest in politics began at a very early age, and the General Election of 1967 was the first occasion I keenly observed the electoral dogfights. Bar­ring the pathbreaking election of 1977 and Indira Gandhi’s triumphant return three years later, which I observed from overseas, I have made it a point to experience the carnival in some way or other. I guess this varied experience does entitle me to take a long, if not de­tached, view of Narendra Modi’s third shy at India’s topmost political job.

The election of 1984, held under the shadow of Indira Gandhi’s tragic assassination and its bloody aftermath, was, arguably, the only election in my memory where the outcome wasn’t in any serious doubt. However, barring this aberration, all General Elections from 1967 to 2019 were preceded by a mood of anticipation. It is not necessarily that the winner was always known in advance—not even in 1971, nor in 1977. It is just that there was an air of uncertainty over the outcome till the time of the declaration of results.

In 1977, for example, despite the visible unpopularity of Congress that manifested itself after the defection of Jagjivan Ram just two months before the polls, people refused to believe that the party of Indira Gandhi could be ousted from power. Likewise, in 1971, with many of the big newspapers sceptical of her chances after the Congress split of 1969, the overall expectation was that it would be a 50:50 outcome, not the conclusive win that the people awarded Indira Gandhi. In 2014, when I had switched from being an observer to becoming a political activist, the consensus before the counting of votes was that the BJP chariot would get stuck around the 240-250 mark, after which the fun and games would start, as happened in 1996 and 1998. It is difficult to describe the gloom that descended on the old Establishment once it was apparent BJP had secured a majority on its own.

The unique feature of the 2024 General Election is that there appears to be zero uncertainty over the outcome. From the media houses that are organising pre-election coronation parties (variously called summits or conclaves) to the pollsters, there is unanimity that Narendra Modi will be sworn in as prime minister for the third time in mid-June. For the punters, the speculation is over the number of seats BJP will win. For the punditry, the debate is over the government’s reform agenda. Will Modi be in single-minded pursuit of the Viksit Bharat agenda, or will he also take strategic diversions to carry out aspects of the Hindutva agenda that drives the core constituency of BJP?

The sense of predictability surrounding this year’s election should concern the soldiers of BJP. Although the prime minister has set the abki baar 400 paar target to the party’s apparatchiks and foot soldiers, there are grounds to fear that the ordinary voters on whom BJP is dependent, will not be sufficiently motivated to drag themselves to the polling stations. The fear is particularly high for the middle-class supporters of Modi who may use the public holiday on polling day to organise a short break somewhere.

There is a lesson to be drawn from 2004, an election where the pundits had concluded that the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government was returning to power. The reasons why this optimism turned out to be misplaced have been analysed subsequently. Apart from the pathetic performance of its two southern allies, the Telugu Desam Party and AIADMK, BJP lost heavily in its urban strongholds for two reasons. First, a section of its middle-class supporters didn’t bother to vote because it felt victory was assured. Second, an important section of its core support felt disappointed that Vajpayee wasn’t pursuing its Hindu agenda with any measure of commitment, and preferred to stay at home. In short, the BJP campaign suffered from complacency and lack of motivation.

Those familiar with Modi’s campaign style since he became chief minister of Gujarat will have observed a two-stage pattern. First, prior to the actual campaign getting underway, Modi makes it his business to organise meetings all over where the main purpose is to remind people of the achievements of his government. The inauguration of completed projects and the start of new ones belong to this category. Second, there are the hurricane tours of places just prior to voting day when Modi focuses on emotive themes that will inspire and motivate the party faithful. Having charged them up adequately, he expects them to propel the voters into the polling booths.

This approach has worked in the past. Let’s see if it is repeated in the coming weeks.

About The Author

Swapan Dasgupta

Swapan Dasgupta is India's foremost conservative columnist. He is the author of Awakening Bharat Mata

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