Regional Bosses and BJP Face Off as EC Rings the Poll Bell

The Election Commission on Sunday set the ball rolling for engrossing and possibly closely contested elections in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Assam, Keralam and West Bengal with the main match up featuring the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and regional parties led by powerful state satraps who will look to ward off the saffron challenge and retain their hold on power in their respective fiefdoms.

The polling will take place between April 9 and 29, with only West Bengal slated for two-phase polling in April 23 and 29. Assam, Puducherry and Keralam will have a one-day poll on April 9 as will Tamil Nadu on April 23 while ballots will be cast in West Bengal on April 23 and 29. The results of all assemblies will be out on May 4 which means it’s a long wait for contestants and parties in some states.

Recent developments in West Asia and its adverse impact on India’s oil and gas supplies is bound to be a major aspect of the poll campaigns as the Opposition accuses the Modi government of mishandling the situation and the Centre defends itself arguing that its pro-active diplomacy and calibrated restrictions on domestic use has kept kitchen fires burning.

The BJP is the lead player in Assam where it seeks an unprecedented third consecutive term under the leadership of chief minister Himanta Sarma. It is a lead partner in Keralam where it won a single assembly seat in 2016 but has drawn a blank since then. In Tamil Nadu and Puducherry it is part of an alliance but has emerged as a major factor with the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) concentrating a lot of its firepower against BJP. In West Bengal BJP is the main opposition hoping to unseat Trinamool Congress leader Mamata Banerjee who is seeking a fourth term in office she has occupied since 2011.

In Kerala, the CPM-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) under chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan faces the challenging task of retaining office for a third time in a row. Its 2021 win was a break from Kerala’s revolving door record and Congress is keen to wrest power again as this will break its losing streak. Congress has lost momentum after unexpectedly winning 99 seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha election as BJP has clawed its way back in subsequent state polls barring a few states like Jharkhand.

On the face of it, BJP and its allies will find it tough to defeat powerful regional bosses like Mamata and Tamil Nadu chief minister M K Stalin. But the stakes are high for these leaders too. Stalin will like to cement his position as a worthy successor to his father M Karunanidhi and Mamata might be facing her toughest test yet with her current term witnessing several difficult moments such as the public outrage over the R G Kar rape and murder case and the shocking rape of a medical student in Durgapur.

While BJP has made gains in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal the party has not been able to tip the scales. In Tamil Nadu, a state where actors and politics have been synonymous, the entry of actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) has shaken things up. The charismatic star is campaigning on his screen image of being a crusader against corruption and poses a threat to DMK’s support among the youth and the Christian community. He can potentially hurt the AIADMK-BJP alliance too but he is really the wild card in a volatile mix.

DMK and Trinamool have targeted BJP for trying to impose a culture that is at variance to the state ethos. Both parties warn that BJP will rise roughshod over regional sensitivities of language and state identity and, in the case of Tamil Nadu, subsume its senior partner in due course of time.

The NDA is in office in Puducherry where All India NR Congress leader N Rangasamy is the chief minister and rival Congress is seeking to stage a comeback. Former CM V Narayanasamy is the likely Congress nominee for the post if the party wins but Rangasamy has an image of being simple and accessible.

Though BJP will face challenging geographies, it has been on an upswing winning a major victory in Bihar last year and consolidating its position in municipal elections in Maharashtra including  the prize of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation.