NDA set to win big in Bihar as BJP-JD(U) juggernaut crushes RJD-Cong

Cong anti-SIR campaign fails

A sweeping victory for the ruling National Democratic Alliance is on the cards with chief minister Nitish Kumar set to return as chief minister yet again after close to 20 years in office barring a short interregnum of nine months. The scale of victory provides strong evidence that the INDIA bloc’s narrative – promoted chiefly by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi – that the election commission’s special intensive review of Bihar’s electoral roll was a bid to disenfranchise voters has failed to make any impression. The record polling in the two-phase election indicates that voting was free and fair and the higher turnout, particularly of women voters, went in favour of the NDA.

The INDIA block was struggling to reach the 50 mark as it became evident that its campaign strategic focussing on Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s allegations of “vote chori” and claims that the Election Commission’s special intensive revision of the state elector roll was a conspiracy hatched in cahoots with BJP failed to impress voters. In fact, mid-day trends showed Congress leading on just five of the 61 seats it contested. The dithering over a CM candidate and failure of seats sharing talks that led to INDIA constituents fighting one another on several seats amplified the image of an unwieldy alliance. Voters placed their bets with what they felt was a “tried and tested” team despite complaints over issues like petty corruption and a lack of industry in a state that remains largely agrarian.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s reputation as BJP and NDA’s primary vote catcher stands further embellished with his sharp attacks on RJD and Congress for supporting illegal infiltration along with the promise of faster development struck a chord with voters who expressed confidence in the “double engine” sarkar. On the other hand, the INDIA bloc could not mobilise voters outside RJD’s key Muslim-Yadav (M-Y) base. The non-Yadav Other Backward Classes (OBC) – including the EBC (Extremely Backward Classes) – remained loyal to Nitish Kumar and NDA.

In 2020, Chirag Paswan’s independent play had harmed NDA and JD(U) in particular. This time there was a closing of ranks with schemes like the Rs 10,000 transferred to women under the Jeevika scheme proving to be popular. It was also evident that RJD has not been able to shake off the tag of “jungle raj” that was synonymous with its tenure in office in the 1990s. NDA voters were clearly concerned about the return of lawlessness and a likely rise in communal tensions should RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav become CM.

NDA high strike rate

Leads at 11 am showed BJP and JD(U) ahead in 82 and 75 seats – amounting to a remarkable strike rate of over 70% since both contested 101 seats each – the NDA vote share crossed 45% with the inclusion of Loktrantric Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) of Chirag Paswan. It was evident within a couple of counting that the NDA was returning of office with a thumping majority and that the INDIA bloc’s challenge had petered out. RJD was the only member of the Mahagathbandan (Grand Alliance) to register a double figure score at 40 leads by mid-morning. Congress’s meagre seven leads once again proved the party added nothing to the alliance and most of the 50-odd seats it contested were a lost cause.

In the 2020 Bihar assembly poll, RJD had won 75 of the 144 seats it contested and NDA had been rescued by BJP’s winning 74 of the 110 seats allotted to it while JD(U) could manage only 43 seats, a loss of 28 over its 2015 score. This time around, the return of Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) to the NDA fold along with smaller parties like Jitan Manjhi’s Hindustani Awaam Morcha appears to have solidly consolidated the ruling alliance’s vote, powering it to a record victory.  The results of the state remove any incentive for JD(U) to seek a change of partner as the party did after the 2020 election which it had won in the company of BJP.

Chirag Paswan comes across a major beneficiary with leads indicating that he might win close to 20 seats with a vote share of 5.6% votes. But the emphatic nature of the NDA win reduces any elbow room he might have hoped for by way of holding the balance of power. The results make it clear that the constituents of the NDA are unlikely to change ahead of the next Lok Sabha election scheduled for 2029. The stunning defeat of the INDIA bloc partners could, in fact, prompt some of the smaller parties to switch to NDA. In the past, BJP has been willing to accommodate smaller parties in order to consolidate its vote. In 2020, HAM and Vikassheel Insaan Party (currently in the INDIA bloc), did not win many seats but helped NDA cross the line.

The NDA success is rooted in the strong backing the alliance received from voters for the significant improvements in infrastructure such as new highways and bridges and well-directed welfare schemes that reached intended beneficiaries. Bihar voters chose to back the Modi-Nitish model, recognising that central assistance to the state’s programmes were a big factor in the positive changes in their daily lives.By 10.30 am, the electoral map of Bihar reflecting counting trends on the Election Commission’s website was looking like a patchwork of saffron and green of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Janata Dal (U) interspersed with a deeper orange hue of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). What was remarkable was the spread of National Democratic Alliance leads right across the state including the “seemanchal” area of east Bihar where the demographics are supposed to lend themselves to polarising politics.