Winning Friends and Influencing Neighbours

IT TOOK MALDIVIAN President Mohamed Muizzu close to six months after taking oath of office to visit India, having chosen Turkey and China as initial destinations. In between, his People’s National Congress convincingly won the parliamentary election in Maldives in April and his control of the 93-member Majlis is expected to solidify his pro-China leanings. Yet, he promptly accepted an invitation to Prime Minister Narendra Modi being sworn in for a third term and at the conclusion of his visit, noted that strengthened bilateral ties will further boost aspirations for the Maldives in the future. Pictures of the formal banquet hosted by President Droupadi Murmu show Muizzu in relaxed conversation with Modi, and he returned to Male after more substantial discussions with External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar.

Is a reset in India-Maldives relations on the cards? It would be naïve to expect Muizzu to temper his China policy. During his five-day visit to Beijing in January, Muizzu met Chinese leader Xi Jinping and signed 20 agreements that include, according to reports in the Maldivian media, plans to develop a $50 million tourism zone, along with grants for Belt Road Initiative (BRI) projects. The Beijing visit was preceded by an ugly row when some Maldives ministers made derogatory remarks about Modi following his visit to Lakshadweep, leading to mass cancellations by Indian tourists planning to visit Maldivian resorts. Though Muizzu’s “India out” plank was seemingly endorsed by Maldivian voters, the retaliation by Indian tourists was a blow to the Maldivian economy as Chinese tourists are yet to return in the numbers that made them the number one market for the islands. Since then, however, Modi is back as prime minister. Though the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) numbers have fallen, it is evident no other party could have formed the government and Male will need to deal with Modi.

With Modi back in the saddle, Muizzu accepted the invitation to attend the swearing-in ceremony with alacrity. The large audience at Rashtrapati Bhavan was in a good mood and not inclined to carp when the Maldivian leader reached the forecourt and joined other foreign leaders. After some sharp exchanges in the past months, Muizzu’s meeting with Jaishankar focused on matters of mutual interest and followed up on earlier deliberations held when Maldivian Foreign Minister Moosa Zameer visited India in May. It seems both sides wanted to move ahead from the point when Jaishankar dismissed allegations of India being a regional hegemon by noting big bullies do not provide billions of dollars in aid and free vaccines for Covid. The Indian approach to Maldives has relied on playing a patient hand despite some plainspeak as advocated by commentators like former Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran. The South Asian littoral is crucial to India’s economic and security interests and relations with the Maldives that straddles the equator require constant attention. Though Indian military personnel operating the Dornier aircraft and helicopters on the islands have been replaced by civilians, the Maldivian defence forces are as yet not trained to fly the machines. In any case, the Indian Navy remains the net security provider for the Indian Ocean region protecting Maldivian cargo and shipping.

Unlike in 2014 when Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif attended the oath-taking of Modi 1.0, the current state of India-Pakistan relations precluded similar represen­tation though Sharif’s party is back in office. The Modi government’s efforts to improve relations with neighbours and Indian Ocean countries have seen forward movement despite set­backs that are more often the result of internal dynamics of these nations. The presence of Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe, Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, Nepal Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’, Bhutan Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay, Mauritius Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth and Seychelles Vice President Ahmed Afif at the swearing in of Modi 3.0 outlines the continuing priorities of Indian foreign policy that focuses on the need to stabilise and secure India’s extended neighbourhood. Leaders like Hasina and Prachanda have dealt with India over a period of time and are committed to greater integration by way of power and infrastruc­ture projects. The government Prachanda leads is vulnerable to churns within Nepal’s communist factions but the leader has seen merit in working with India and has done nothing to weaken the agreements signed by his predecessor Sher Bahadur Deuba. Rather, India and Nepal signed an agreement in January that will facilitate the export of 10,000MW of electricity to India. Hasina’s recent re-election was welcome news for India given her preparedness to diversify India-Bangladesh cooperation in connectivity and commerce. In terms of foreign policy postu­lates, ensuring Mauritius and Seychelles do not fall under the influence of powers hostile to India is an unchanging priority.

India’s relations with neighbours and littoral countries are inevitably seen in the light of rivalry and competition with China. India has little choice in the matter as China’s effort to widen its zone of influence is not based on benign principles and the communist giant is intent on constricting New Delhi’s strategic options. Examples abound of short-sighted avaricious leaders accepting Chinese finance—while feathering their own nests— and pushing their nations into debt traps. The current recovery in the Sri Lankan economy is a positive development after the chaos and distress caused by the Rajapaksa regime’s ill-considered policies and pro-China tilt. It is simply not in India’s interests to see neighbours become victims of the usurious terms that accompany Chinese aid. But the China factor is not the only incentive as India has cultural and trade ties with these nations that go back several millennia. By doggedly pursuing ambitious connectivity projects and offering assistance without strings attached, the Modi govern­ment has sought to insulate long-term interests from politics of the day. The tangible benefits of cooperation are an effective way of con­vincing public opinion about India’s good intentions. This helps in countering anti-India sentiments that are stoked by identity politics, populism and leftist influences that lean towards China.

In interactions with Muizzu’s administration, Indian diplomats have conveyed it is for Maldives to decide on relations with China or any other nation. But Male must also consider how it wants ties with India to develop and where its priorities lie. India has legitimate concerns about its security that are not irrelevant to India-Maldives relations. It is to be seen whether the two nations can make a fresh start though a reduction in hostile rhetoric will be a good beginning. The Modi government’s con­tinuance in office is a significant marker for India’s neighbours as it means there will be no abrupt change in course or a need to establish equations with a new leader. It opens the doors to a consolidation of bilateral relations that can bring about political stability and economic progress for the Indian Ocean region.

Chinadebt trapsIndia's neighboursModi 0.3Narendra Modi