Will the Epstein Files determine whether there is war in the Persian Gulf?

At the Omani Ambassador’s residence in Geneva’s Cologny suburb, the theatre of the absurd played out early this week in the form of the US-Iran talks. Both sides sat in different rooms. The Omani Foreign Minister, Mr. Badr-al-Busaidi shuttled between rooms carrying messages like a waiter. The US team of Steve Witkoff and Jared Kuchner were once again separated by “purdah” from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

Why were Witkoff and Kuchner looking extremely stressed?

They were stressed because their room for manoeuvre had been severely curtailed by Israeli intelligence agency Mossad. Multiple intelligence and diplomatic sources have reported that Mossad has been systematically gathering political and personal intelligence on Witkoff and Kuchner’s deals with Pakistan through the Trump-Witkoff family financial vehicle World Liberty Financials. The message being sent to Washington without being spoken out loud is this: push this deal through and things get complicated for the people pushing it. This is the shadow war that runs underneath the garb of public diplomacy. It is the reason some analysts believe the deal could collapse not from Iranian stubbornness or US hawks, but from political chaos manufactured in Washington itself.

Who supplied US Representative Pramila Jayapal, a member of the US House of Representatives Judiciary Committee investigating the Epstein Files, with the names of 47 key Americans whose appearance and detailed listing in these files was classified by FBI Director Kash Patel? Does Mossad have the ability to take Trump and his administration to the edge of a political precipice and “push” them over if they fall for a “deal” with Iran?

Why was Abbas Aragchi smiling like the proverbial “cheshire cat” while drinking tea in Cologny, Geneva? What was actually going on there?

 Araghchi walked into the talks with one of the most carefully constructed diplomatic traps in modern geopolitical history. It goes like this: after Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025, after the bombs, after the international pressure, after decades of the most crippling economic sanctions ever imposed on a single country, Iran still has an estimated 400 kg of uranium enriched to 60% purity. To put that in plain terms, weapons grade nuclear material is enriched to 90%, Iran is sitting at 60%; they are one technical step away.

Here is the card that Araghchi played that reportedly made Israeli officials physically furious when they found out. In the 5-hour closed door first session, Iran's negotiators told the US side something nobody expected. They said they were willing to transfer their entire 400 kg enriched uranium stockpile out of the country to Russia, permanently removing the material that has been the entire justification for potential military action.

They also declared that they were willing to agree to limits on their nuclear weapons development program, thereby satisfying Trump's single biggest demand since day one of his second term that has been Iran must not get a nuclear bomb

Iran agrees to nuclear limits. No bomb. Deal done. That is a legacy moment. That is a Nobel Peace Prize nomination for Trump. That is the kind of diplomatic win that gets written into history textbooks for the next hundred years.

But here is what makes this a trap rather than a surrender. Iran agreed to talk about its nuclear enrichment. But Iran's ballistic missile program was not on the table. Iran's military budget was not on the table. Iran's support for regional allies like Hezbollah and the Houthi movement in Yemen was not on the table. And crucially, Iran wanted the economic sanctions that have been strangling 90 million Iranian citizens for decades lifted as part of this deal.

So, think about what Iran is actually offering?

They are giving up the thing they may not even need anymore. Enriched uranium that has already been partially destroyed in June 2025 and is internationally monitored in exchange for the thing that will transform them into a regional superpower. Economic freedom. That is not a concession. That is a trade. A trade that benefits Iran far more than it benefits anyone else at that table. And Israel sees this crystal clearly and is losing its mind right now.

To understand why Iran just made the smartest economic move of any country this century, one needs to understand what sanctions have actually done to 90 million Iranian people. One US dollar right now equals approximately 16 million Iranian rials. Not 16,000, not 1,600,000 but 16 million. The Iranian rial has lost over 90% of its value in the last 6 years alone. Iranian families are spending the equivalent of three full weeks of wages just to buy basic groceries for a month. University graduates, engineers, doctors, scientists are leaving the country in the largest brain drain Iran has ever experienced. The middle class, which was once the backbone of Iranian society, has been nearly wiped out economically.

Iran holds the fourth largest proven oil reserves on the planet, roughly 200 billion barrels. Right now, Iran sells much of its oil through back channels, discounted deals with China, grey market arrangements through middlemen. They are generating revenue, but they are leaving enormous money on the table because of the legal risks of buying Iranian oil.

The moment sanctions are lifted, that changes overnight. European energy companies have been quietly maintaining technical relationships with Iran for years, waiting for exactly this moment. India, which is the world's third largest oil consumer, would immediately pivot to cheaper Iranian crude. China, which has already been Iran's quiet buyer throughout the sanctions period, would expand its purchases dramatically. Pakistan, which shares a direct border with Iran, could finally activate the long-planned Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline, a project that's been on hold for years, specifically because of American sanctions pressure. Cheap Iranian natural gas flowing into Pakistan with lower energy costs can transform its future.

Globally, the math is straightforward. More Iranian oil on the market means lower oil prices worldwide. Analysts at several energy research firms have estimated that full Iranian oil market re-entry could drop global crude prices by anywhere from $10 to $20 per barrel. That sounds technical until you realize it means cheaper petrol and diesel, cheaper airline tickets, cheaper manufacturing costs, cheaper food transportation; a genuine cost of living improvement for billions of people around the world.

And here is the chess move buried inside the chess move. Iran agreed to limits on nuclear enrichment. Iran offered to ship enriched uranium to Russia, but Iran's ballistic missile program, the rockets with ranges exceeding 2,000 km that can hit Tel Aviv, hit US bases in Qatar and Bahrain, hit Saudi oil fields, is completely and totally off the negotiating table. Iran's foreign minister said it in plain language. Missiles are a defence matter and they are not part of this conversation.

That is the part that matters most because when you strip everything else away, the missile program is what Israel is actually terrified of. Nuclear weapons are a future threat. Ballistic missiles are a present immediate operational threat that exists right now today in hardened silos across Iran's territory. Iran just offered to give up its future nuclear threat in exchange for economic liberation while keeping its present military threat fully intact. That is not a compromise. That is a masterclass.

Let us talk about Israel because this is where the situation stops being a diplomatic success story and starts being genuinely frightening. Netanyahu's government had a very specific vision for what was supposed to happen to Iran. It was not a deal. It was never a deal. The plan, communicated directly to Trump and his team multiple times, was regime change, full stop.

The goal was to use military strikes as the opening act, follow up with American special operations forces targeting Iran's missile production facilities, impose maximum sanctions to collapse the Iranian economy, and ultimately force the Iranian government itself out of power, replace the Islamic Republic with something more manageable, something that would not fund Hezbollah, something that wouldn't supply the Houthis, something that would not threaten Israel's regional dominance.

That was the plan. And it was working slowly, painfully, but working until Iran walked into Geneva and flipped the entire script.

Now, here is the question that determines everything.

What does Israel actually do when it feels cornered?

In 1981, Israel bombed Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor without American authorization. In 2007, it bombed a suspected Syrian nuclear facility without telling Washington in advance. In 2025, it launched air strikes on Iranian territory that directly pulled the United States into Operation Midnight Hammer. Each time Israel calculated that action was better than waiting and each time Washington eventually fell in line.

If this Geneva deal gets close to finalization, the pressure on Israel to act becomes extreme because a sanctions-free Iran with a fully recovered economy, full oil revenue, unlimited foreign investment, and an intact ballistic missile program is a fundamentally more powerful Iran than the one that exists today.

Trump is caught between the political leverage of Israel and the financial leverage of the Arab Gulf states. Between the ally that helped put him in power and the investors who are funding his legacy, between war, and the biggest economic deal the Middle East has ever seen.

Iran turned a military confrontation into an economic negotiation. They turned "destroy Iran" into "can America afford not to deal." They took the weapon their enemies gave them, the threat of their own nuclear program, and converted it into a diplomatic bargaining chip worth potentially trillions of dollars in sanctions relief.

Right now, two US carrier strike groups are positioning in the Persian Gulf. The IAEA is demanding access to undeclared Iranian uranium sites. Russia is waiting to receive 400 kg of enriched uranium. Israel is furious. The Arab world is hopeful. And in two weeks, both sides return to the table with written proposals.

Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz on 17 February. Parts of the world's most critical waterway was shut down for Sino-Iranian-Russian live fire naval drills happening during the talks. 20 million barrels of oil transit that strait daily. 20% of the world's entire oil supply. Saudi Arabian crude, Iraqi exports, Kuwaiti production, Qatari natural gas, all flowing through 30 miles of water, Iran temporarily closed.

The USS Abraham Lincoln, leading a carrier strike group with three guided missile destroyers, carrying approximately 90 aircraft and crew of 5,680 located off Oman was in the Arabian Sea at a “safe” distance of 700 km from Iran yesterday. The aircraft were flying missions around the clock, 24 hours, 7 days, every day. F-35C Lightning and F-18 Super Hornets were launching from her flight deck. EA18G Growler electronic warfare aircraft were preparing for operations. Centcom posted footage on 16 February showing continuous flight operations in support of regional security. That is American military language for we are ready to strike Iran at any moment.

And Iran's response, close the strait, launch the drills, negotiate in Geneva, all simultaneously.

And Russia and China responded to all of this by deploying warships. Mir news agency confirmed that Russia, China and Iran have dispatched ships to participate in the upcoming maritime security belt 2026 naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz. Russian presidential aide Nikolai Petrachev announced it officially. Three nuclear powers, one strategic waterway, one closing drill, one Geneva negotiation, all happening simultaneously. All happening on 17 February 2026.

JD Vance issued his own warning same day. Iran faces another option on the table if a nuclear deal not reached. “Another option” is diplomatic language for a military strike

So, US officials were publicly threatening military strikes while American negotiators sat in Geneva discussing the nuclear deal simultaneously in parallel as Iran and its allies ran naval drills while diplomats talked. Both sides were negotiating under explicit military threat while conducting military operations simultaneously. That is not diplomacy. That is a strategic deterrence theatre where Geneva is one act and Hormuz is another.

Also, the USS Gerald R. Ford, the world's largest aircraft carrier, is now entering the Mediterranean heading towards the region. Two carriers, dozens of warships, hundreds of aircraft, all converging simultaneously. Is this all bluff and bluster or something else? Who is the master puppeteer in this game? Does he control all the buttons in the Epstein Files? Does Netanyahu enjoy unlimited access over large swathes of the world’s elite including important leaders and politicians?

Meanwhile Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to visit Tel Aviv later this month from 25 February. On the cards is a mega defence deal. Does this mean that India is now politically aligned against the emerging and consolidating BRICS faction of Russia, Iran and China? Will the Epstein Files also be on the agenda of talks with Netanyahu?