Turnout Triumphs

WITH THE COMPLETION of the fifth phase of the Lok Sabha polls, India’s massive electoral exercise is winding down and it is becoming apparent that fears and theories about a ‘low’ turnout are proving overcooked. The polling percentage has been rising steadily and the 2024 General Election, like the 2014 and 2019 polls, is likely to go past the 65 per cent turnout mark. This is a healthy sign for India’s democracy and an effective answer to naysayers who have questioned the trustworthiness of EVMs. Further, the rising voting percentage deals a blow to self-styled analysts who have read the lower turnout as a sign of disenchantment with the Modi government. A few posed the question whether the election was turning but have since gone silent. While all parties are trying to figure out exactly what lower or higher voting means, a section of commentators took it upon itself to argue that the summer heat is responsible for lower voting numbers. Careful analysis shows that the link between hotter days and voting is rather weak. The fact is that the first phase of voting registered a 66.7 per cent turnout, which cannot be classified as low. But it was 3 per cent lower for the comparable seats in 2019 and there was indeed a sharp drop in certain seats in Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh (UP). However, the pace of electioneering has picked up since, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi launching a sharp attack on Congress’ redistributive agenda and accusing the party of implementing religion-based quotas in Karnataka at the cost of OBCs. The turnout has improved and the basic pattern of lower voting in urban centres remains unchanged as was the case earlier, too. The last two phases of polling will be held in states like Odisha, UP, Bihar, West Bengal, Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, and Himachal Pradesh. Elections in some of these states are highly contested and have been witnessing high turnouts. The trend of 65 per cent-plus voter turnout since 2014 also conceals another fact. The total number of voters has increased and so many more citizens have cast their votes that even the final turnout remains in the 65-66 per cent range.

AAP’s Delhi Mess

With the medical reports of AAP Rajya Sabha MP Swati Maliwal confirming physical injuries, the incident has become a central point in the Delhi election. AAP is going all out to paint Maliwal as a BJP plant. This is a clear reversal from the party’s earlier admission that Arvind Kejriwal’s aide Bibhav Kumar had “misbehaved” with Maliwal at the chief minister’s official residence. Initially, AAP’s Sanjay Singh said strict action would be taken against Kumar. But this has not happened. Rather, AAP now claims the incident is part of a conspiracy to tar the name of its leader. Former AAP members point out Kumar is a very important cog in the party machinery and privy to its inner dealings. His arrest has added more grist to the mill and Kejriwal’s appeal that if voters do not support him, he will be back in jail after June 2 is appearing a forlorn cry despite the bravado. Delhi BJP leaders, who have often failed to pull together, see AAP’s current situation as an opportunity to loosen the hold the chief minister has had on sections of the middle class appreciative of his free electricity and water schemes.

100-Day Plans

After a record number of media interviews, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is coming across as increasingly confident of returning to office. His campaign has been buoyed by enthusiastic receptions in Jharkhand, Odisha, and West Bengal. As the election winds down and June 4 approaches with the declaration of results, activity within the government on the 100-day plan Modi has spoken about is peaking. Various ministries and departments are aware that if they get their priority areas into the plan, the implementation process and budgets will receive a boost. The government is working on getting things rolling without delay even as a full Budget is presented sometime in July. Modi has indicated that anti-corruption measures will receive heightened attention. This includes a close look at the functioning of various agencies and relevant laws. The government is expected to stoutly defend provisions of the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA) and the powers of public sector banks (PSBs) to act against defaulters and people likely to flee the country to avoid action against them. PSBs are upset with a verdict of the High Court of Bombay striking down their power to issue lookout notices. The view in government is that the goalposts are constantly moved by its critics. If high-profile and influential people escape to foreign shores, the government is promptly blamed. And when notices are issued, the state is seen to be using draconian powers.

Rafale Poll Position

In his interactions with voter groups after joining BJP, retired Air Chief Marshal RKS Bhadauria has explained the criticality of India’s acquisition of the Rafale fighter jets. China’s moves on the LAC in 2020 were aimed at permanently creating an imbalance against India and the neighbour was deterred by the strong response on the ground as well as concerns about a wider conflict. The Rafale has added significant muscle to IAF and will be a key factor in any conflict. While China has not withdrawn from the border areas, it was forced to accept buffer zones where both sides have agreed not to patrol. The acquisition of the fighter was opposed by Congress and Left-aligned commentators on the grounds that the deal was tainted by graft. The allegations were dismissed by the Supreme Court which had found nothing amiss with the negotiations. China may continue to harbour plans to try and inflict another incident like the Galwan clash but will not succeed, said Bhadauria, adding that India’s deterrence capabilities had received a booster shot.

Pannun’s Capers

US-based Khalistani Gurpatwant Singh Pannun has come out with his latest video offering $100,000 for opposing the BJP campaign in Punjab. The ‘incentive’ will be given to the person who can claim to have taken the first step to block airports or roads when Prime Minister Modi campaigns in Punjab. The video, meant to be threatening, is rather comical and Pannun comes across as clownish. His fulminations, with a Khalistani banner in the background, are unlikely to have any impact beyond social media. Some farm unions have tried to prevent BJP candidates from campaigning but with negligible impact. Voters, too, seem well aware of how farm unions came a cropper in the state Assembly election in 2022.

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