Indian exporters may boost top 15 exports to US by $97 billion in a year: SBI report

Indian exporters may increase their exports of the top 15 items to the United States by around $97 billion in a year, according to a report by the State Bank of India. Including the remaining items, the export potential may easily cross the $100 billion mark annually.

The report said the decline in tariffs presents a golden opportunity for Indian exporters to expand their market share in the US.

“India's Trade surplus with the US may thus cross $90 billion annually. As per our preliminary estimates, Indian exporters may increase their exports of the top 15 items to the US by approx. $97 billion in a year,” it noted.

According to the report, the expected surge in Indian exports, potentially crossing $100 billion annually after tariff cuts, combined with a structured rise in imports, could significantly widen India’s trade surplus with the US.

The surplus stood at $40.9 billion in FY25 and $26 billion in FY26 from April to December. The additional export push is likely to drive the surplus beyond $90 billion annually.

How will higher Indian exports to the US impact India’s GDP growth?

The report estimated that the net impact on GDP would be around 1.1 per cent.

It highlighted that while the US accounts for around 20 per cent of India’s exports, its share in India’s imports is only about 7.0 per cent. In services imports, the US has a 15 per cent share, indicating that India remains a significant potential market for American goods and services.

On the import side, the US has a yearly potential of more than $50 billion of exports to India, excluding services.

India has agreed to eliminate or reduce tariffs on all US industrial goods and a wide range of US food and agricultural products.

Subsequently, India intends to purchase $500 billion of US goods over the next five years, and imports could increase by $55 billion.

In some commodities, the US share in India’s imports is already between 20 per cent and 40 per cent and is expected to increase further as tariffs are reduced.

In almonds, the US accounts for 90 per cent of India’s total imports. India can save $100 million to $150 million in foreign exchange reserves due to tariff reduction in these items.

Overall savings in foreign exchange reserves from zero or reduced import duty from the US are estimated at around $3.0 billion, with import substitution potentially raising the savings further.

(With inputs from ANI)