Gold Duty Hike to 15% May Lift Prices, Spur Grey Market Flows: SBI Report

The recent increase in customs duty on gold imports to 15 per cent could push up domestic gold prices, alter physical market dynamics and have implications for India's current account deficit (CAD), according to a report by SBI Research.

The report said the import duty increase is likely to have a ripple effect across the bullion market, including a possible diversion of supplies through unofficial channels.

"The decision to increase duty on gold imports has been taken on numerous occasions in the past. However, imposition of duty has its consequences in diverting the physical supply to grey channels," the report said.

According to the report, the widening gap between international and domestic gold prices after a duty increase creates opportunities for arbitrage.

"This is driven by higher spread between the offshore and onshore price of gold, which creates an opportunity for arbitrage," it added.

SBI Research noted that the duty on gold had earlier been reduced sharply. "Also, it should be kept in mind that duty on gold was reduced by more than half to 6% in June 2024 till the current rise to 15%," the report stated.

The report further said that higher import duties have historically led to a rise in seizures by enforcement agencies.

How Do Gold Imports Influence India’s Current Account Deficit (CAD)?

On the external sector, SBI Research highlighted that gold imports continue to remain a matter of concern for the current account deficit.

However, the report clarified that gold imports alone have not been the sole driver of CAD trends over the years.

There is no clear trend that CAD developments have been driven by gold, it said, while adding that projections based on recent trends show a significant impact of gold imports on CAD.

The report also pointed out that while gold import volumes have been declining, the overall import bill has risen sharply due to higher prices.

The trends in value show a sharp rise from $57.9 billion in FY25 to $72.4 billion in FY26. At the same time, in volume terms, the gold imports have shown a decreasing trend since FY24, reducing by approximately 5 per cent in FY25 and FY26.

Looking ahead, SBI Research expects some moderation in import volumes following the latest duty hike.

"We expect that current hike in duty may see similar trends as seen in past. However, we also feel that given the strong negative volume effect seen in recent two years, there will be some downward adjustment in volumes, the extent of which is however uncertain," the report added.

(With inputs from ANI)