Why the Bihar Result is a "Garda" in Every Which Way

Prime Minister Narendra Modi summed the Bihar results in a pithy and earthy phrase at the start of his speech at the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) headquarters on November 14 evening. “Aap logon ne to garda uda diya (You just blew the Opposition away),” he said acknowledging the Bihar voter’s massive mandate in favour of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The turn of phrase is interesting as it lends itself to multiple uses denoting both decimation and also something stupendous.

Just as the phrase can be seen as a reference to the INDIA bloc of Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress along with the three Left parties and Vikasheel Insaan Party being buried under an NDA landslide, it can be a salutation of an extraordinary performance. The word “garda” translates to “dust” but that is too literal a reference in the range of contexts and situations it can be used. The words “astounding” and “amazing” can be equally applicable with the phrase being read as appreciation of an extraordinary achievement.

In more commonplace usage, a new suit or car can attract similar words of praise. “Arre garda ho gaya (this is just too much),” can be the gist of it. Seen any which way – except for the challengers -- the Bihar results were superlative. They embodied a collective desire for a better future and a belief that the current Janata Dal (U)-BJP dispensation was the best bet despite some shortcomings and the inevitable wages of long incumbency. It would be missing the wood for the trees to see the verdict as merely the result of a TINA (There Is No Alternative) factor. Yes, memories of “jungle raj” have not faded but vote for NDA is an endorsement of changes in a state once derided as terminally backward.

Where “negatives” are “positives”

The invocation of “polarising” issues such as illegal migration, seen in some quarters as “negative” campaigning, is viewed differently by many in Bihar. It is a reminder that communal tensions have not go out of hand and that things might be different if RJD was back in the saddle. A substantial part of the “jungle raj” slogan relates to the immunity dons like Mohammad Shahabuddin enjoyed during the Lalu-Rabri governments. Polarisation is not a one-way street. The RJD-Congress attack on the Election Commission’s Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of Bihar’s electoral roll was intended to stir insecurities of Muslim voters.

Questioning BJP and JD(U) strike rate to claim that the elections were not fair will not convince anyone. Congress has the opportunity to take its complaints to court, which it has not done with respect to its allegations relating to alleged “vote chori” in Maharashtra and Haryana. The SIR exercise itself has so far withstood the Supreme Court’s close scrutiny and the record turnout in Bihar further validates the EC’s efforts. The additional voters over and above the electoral list published after the SIR was over is due to EC accepting enrolments until 10 days before the last day of nomination for both phases of elections. In fact, the EC is to be commended for ensuring eligible voters were included till close to the elections.

RJD & Cong lost fair and square

Claiming that three lakh voters were “added” suspiciously will not help Congress explain the meagre six seats it won. Neither will arguments that Congress won just six seats with 8.7% votes while Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) bagged 19 with 4.9% vote will not wash. Chirag’s party contested 29 seats to Congress’s 61. A closer analysis is likely to reveal that a chunk of Congress votes are concentrated on a relatively fewer number of seats. Further, its vote share includes “transfers” from the RJD’s vote bank  that includes Muslims along with Yadavs. Similar claims that RJD won just 25 seats with 23% votes to BJP’s tally of 89 with 20% votes is specious. It does not take into account transfer of votes between NDA partners and the consolidation due to LJP(RV) being part of NDA.

The Bihar results are a severe blow to RJD patriarch Lalu Prasad’s politics. But it might be premature to say the show is over for good. The 37% vote share the INDIA bloc received is primarily RJD’s vote. Muslim voters expressed a preference for Congress and do so both at the state and the Centre. But their backing for Congress nominees is due to the party being part of an alliance with RJD and therefore best placed to defeat NDA candidates. On its own, Congress might find the going much worse.

Modi’s remarks that the aspirations of Bihar’s voters would be a source of motivation is a recognition of the aspirational sentiment embedded in the 202 seats NDA won. Its sets out the route map for the next five years of what has been an extraordinary run for Nitish Kumar and the BJP.