The Bihar Epic: It's Nitish Kumar Again as NDA Wins a Sensational Mandate

 By 10.30AM ON November 14, the Election Commis­sion’s electoral map of Bihar reflecting counting trends was a patchwork of saffron and green of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Janata Dal (U), interspersed with flecks of Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) marked in ochre. Not only was the I.N.D.I.A. bloc, or the Mahagathband­han (Grand Alliance) as it is known in Bihar, reduced to the margins, struggling to reach 40 seats in a House of 243, the All India Majlis-e- Ittehadul Muslimeen of Asaduddin Owaisi led in a clutch of five constituencies in the state’s eastern edge of the Seemanchal region which has a high number of Muslim voters. It appeared that even the Muslim consolidation anticipated in favour of the RJD-led I.N.D.I.A. bloc was less than perfect. All five AIMIM can­didates were Muslims and their nearest rivals were NDA candidates in four constituencies.

BJP and JD(U), at the time this report went to print, looked set to record a remarkable strike rate of 90 per cent and 80 per cent, re­spectively, having contested 101 seats each. The overwhelming support for NDA out­side RJD’s Muslim-Yadav (M-Y) vote bank is clear evidence that the increased turnout in the two-phase election delivered an ad­vantage to NDA. Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) leader Chirag Paswan emerged a major gainer winning 18 seats and leading on one, not much behind RJD’s 25. His re­turn to the NDA fold in the 2024 Lok Sabha election continues to benefitthe ruling alliance with his voluble and assertive community backing it.

Women voters outnumbered men by more than four lakh in the two phases of voting, rebutting fears about higher deletions of female voters during the Election Commission’s Special In­tensive Revision (SIR) of Bihar’s electoral roll. It is apparent that most such deletions were either due to duplicate registration in paternal and marital homes or related to shifting of residence out of the state. The higher women turnout was a strong en­dorsement of the perception that law and order has improved significantly under Chief Minister Nitish Kumar with the elec­tions proceeding smoothly, barring the odd incident. This al­lowed NDA to fully mobilise its voters and encourage them to reach the polling booth.

Modi summed up the message of the massive NDA victory in a speech at the BJP headquarters in Delhi in the eve­ning when he declared that “jungle raj” will never return to Bihar and promised measures to promote industry and em­ployment. He was direct and scathing in attacking Congress, accusing it of hav­ing become a “Muslim League Maoist Congress or MMC” and saying it is driven solely by negative agendas that further the cause of India’s enemies. Looking to flip the RJD’s M-Y (Muslim Yadav) formula­tion, he said a positive way of reinventing the slogan would be to see it as a Mahila- Yuva (women and youth) mobilisation. Modi seemed acutely aware of the scale of the NDA victory when ­he said that he wanted every poor family to know that NDA will work in its interest.“Aap ka vishwas meri pratigya hai (Your trust is my pledge),” he said, adding that the hope and expectations of Bihar’s voters are his motivation. He rubbed in Congress’ reduced tally, saying that in the six state polls since the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the party’s tally of MLAs had not crossed 100.

THE THUMBS-UP for the incumbent NDA government is a rejection of Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s “vote chori” campaign. Rahul’s charge that elections were being “sto­len” and Congress and its allies had been cheated out of wins in Haryana and Maharashtra, and SIR was part of the same conspir­acy, found no takers. In fact, unless specifically questioned, voters did not mention SIR as an issue at all. Even voters supporting the Grand Alliance—including Muslims, whom Congress claimed were targets of the SIR conspiracy—did not report any significant deletion of voters from the electoral roll. Congress’ “Vote Adhikar Yatra (voting rights yatra)” in retrospect turned out to be misdi­rected as it consumed campaign time and prevented the Grand Alliance from focusing on matters that affect voters tangibly.

The visible improvements in infrastructure by way of high­ways, train and air networks as well as targeted transfers of welfare benefits were key to the NDA success. Prime Minister Narendra Modi was seen as a prime driver of Bihar’s growth by way of central support for the state. This helped the “double en­gine” theme to strike a chord with voters, despite grouses over rise in petty corruption and lack of industry that has fuelled mi­gration. The verdict reflects the hope that current positives in governance will continue with the addition of more initiatives to develop business and commercial opportunities. The lack of private employment is often reflected in the commonly stated desire for government jobs.

Just as a development agenda attracted voters towards NDA, concerns about the return of “jungle raj” prevented them from considering the Grand Alliance. The short spells of RJD-JD(U) coalitions in 2015 and then in 2022 served to remind NDA voters that RJD had not changed its ways with the Lalu Prasad clan beset with fresh charges of graft going back to when the party patriarch was railway minister in the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government. The refrain that extortion and thuggery would be back should the Grand Alliance win was common. The assertions of RJD supporters, par­ticularly the Yadav community, that the days of such rowdyism are over and Tejashwi Yadav should be given an op­portunity did not cut ice with most voters outside the M-Y block.

While Congress’ SIR pitch did not work with even RJD dropping refer­ences to the claim half-way through the election, Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah’s forceful attacks on the Grand Al­liance over jungle raj and illegal migration added an emotive element to the development plank. The RJD era jungle raj is in popular memory associated with criminal dons like the late Mohammad Shahabuddin who ruled Siwan with an iron fist. JD(U) has had its share of dons, such as Anant Singh, who was arrested in mid-campaign for the murder of a local strongman working for a Jan Suraaj Party candidate in Mokama, but Nitish Kumar is regarded as “Sushasan Babu (Mr Governance)” and the taint of criminalisation does not attach to him. The issue of illegal migration is polarising, and Modi and Shah were able to present Congress’ campaign against SIR as a bid to protect “ghuspetiyas (infiltrators)” in the voting list.

The hype over the entry of newbie Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) led by poll strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor into Bihar politics fizzled out early in the campaign. His decision to shy away from a contest at Raghopur where Tejashwi was seeking election was read as a surrender. It deepened the perception that he was not a serious contender and lacked the stomach for a fight. The initial frisson he had generated among younger voters fizzled out and a poor selection of candidates hurt JSP too. Successful as a politi­cal consultant, Kishor failed to grasp the need to plunge into an electoral contest even at the risk of losing. JSP was seen as a party without a general and Kishor’s recusal deflated his campaign almost before it began.

The win in Bihar solidifies BJP’s recovery from a sub-par showing in the 2024 Lok Sabha election where its tally stopped at 240, well short of the single-party majority it achieved in the 2014 and 2019 national elections. Thereafter, learning from the mistakes of the 2024 campaign, BJP cranked up its election machinery that had been dented by complacency, redoubled its efforts to implement welfare schemes like the “Ladli Bahin” scheme that delivered ₹1,500 a month to eligible women in Ma­harashtra and sewed up important alliances. On the other hand, Congress lost the momentum it had gained by mis-reading the Lok Sabha result as a popular approval of its charge that the “Constitution was in danger” due to BJP’s majoritarian agenda. While the Opposition’s claim that BJP’s slogan of “400-plus (char sau par)” seats did generate apprehensions among Dalit voters, particularly in Uttar Pradesh, the party’s setbacks are equally attributable to regional factors, such as disaffection of certain sections of voters and inadequacies in generating a “national” narrative that would subdue local factors.

Now with Bihar under its belt, BJP is well placed to face forth­coming elections in states like Assam and UP where it is in office and state polls are due in 2026 and 2027. Though state results do not have a direct bearing on the functioning of Parliament, the wins are handy in countering the impression that BJP is a weak­ened force. The functioning of Parliament during the forthcoming Winter Session is, however, likely to remain as partisan and dis­rupted as it has been so far with the I.N.D.I.A. bloc constituents like  Trinamool Congress and Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) pressing on with their opposition to the Election Commission’s plans to conduct a nationwide SIR. Yet, electoral wins restore the confidence of the BJP rank and file and ignite the combative spirit in the party’s parliamentary wing. The comeback began with wins in Haryana and Maharashtra in late 2024, in Delhi in early 2025, and now the landslide in Bihar cements BJP as India’s premier political force. BJP’s enhanced electoral capital provides Modi with more leeway in negotiating po­litical challenges, such as the trade face-off with the US and taking some tough deci­sions to further financial and structural reforms in the Indian economy.

Several hours into the counting, the I.N.D.I.A. bloc was struggling to reach the 40-mark as it became evident that its campaign strategy focusing on Rahul Gandhi’s allegations of “vote chori” and claims that the SIR roll was a conspir­acy hatched in cahoots with BJP proved to be a complete non-starter. The scale of the Grand Alliance’s defeat as it was swamped by an NDA tsunami rivalled the I.N.D.I.A. bloc’s rout in the Maharashtra election last year where Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) and Nationalist Con­gress Party (Sharad Pawar) were reduced to 16, 20 and 10 seats in a 288-member Assembly. In fact, mid-day trends showed Congress leading on just five of the 61 seats it contested. The dithering over a chief ministerial candidate and failure of seat-sharing talks that led to I.N.D.I.A. constituents fighting one another on several seats amplified the image of an unwieldy alliance. Voters placed their bets with what they felt was a “tried and tested” team despite com­plaints over issues like petty corruption and a lack of industry in a state that remains largely agrarian.

MODI’S REPUTATION AS India’s tallest leader stood further embellished with his sharp attacks on RJD and Congress for supporting illegal infiltration along with the promise of faster development struck a chord with vot­ers who expressed confidence in the “double-engine” sarkar. On the other hand, the I.N.D.I.A. bloc could not mobilise voters out­side RJD’s key Muslim-Yadav (M-Y) base. The non-Yadav Other Backward Classes (OBC)—including the EBC (Extremely Back­ward Classes)—remained loyal to Nitish Kumar and NDA.

In 2020, Chirag Paswan’s independent play had harmed NDA and JD(U) in particular. This time, there was a closing of ranks with schemes like the ₹10,000 transferred to women under the JEEViKA scheme proving to be popular. It was also evident that RJD has not been able to shake off the tag of “jungle raj” that was synonymous with its tenure in office in the 1990s. NDA voters were clearly concerned about the return of lawless­ness and a likely rise in communal tensions should RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav become chief minister.

Leads at 2PM showed BJP and JD(U) winning a lion’s share of the seats they contested amounting to a masterful performance. The NDA vote share crossed 45 per cent with the inclusion of Chirag’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas). It was evident soon after counting got underway that NDA was returning to office with a thumping majority and that the I.N.D.I.A. bloc’s challenge had petered out. RJD was the only member of the Mahagathbandhan to register a double-figure score at 27 leads by mid-morning. But this was a steep fall from 75 seats it won in 2020. Congress’ meagre leads once again proved the party brought nothing to the alliance and most of the 61 seats it contested were a lost cause. In 2020, too, Congress won just 19 of the 70 seats it contested.

In the 2020 Bihar Assembly poll, RJD had emerged as the single-largest party contesting 144 seats and NDA was res­cued by BJP’s winning 74 of the 110 seats allotted to it as JD(U) could manage only 43 seats, a loss of 28 over its 2015 score. This time round, the return of LJP(RV) to the NDA fold, along with smaller parties like Jitan Manjhi’s Hindustani Awaam Morcha, appears to have strongly consolidated the ruling alli­ance’s vote, powering it to a record victory. The results of the state remove any incentive for JD(U) to seek a change of partner as the party did after the 2020 election which it had won in the company of BJP.

Chirag Paswan comes across as a major beneficiary with leads indicating that he might win close to 20 seats with a vote share of 5.6 per cent votes. But the emphatic nature of the NDA win re­duces any elbow room he might have hoped for by way of holding the balance of power. The results make it clear that the constitu­ents of NDA are unlikely to change ahead of the next Lok Sabha election scheduled for 2029. The stunning defeat of the I.N.D.I.A. bloc partners could, in fact, prompt some of the smaller parties to switch to NDA. In the past, BJP has been willing to accommodate smaller parties in order to consolidate its vote. In 2020, HAM and Vikassheel Insaan Party (currently in the I.N.D.I.A. bloc) did not win many seats but helped NDA cross the line.

The NDA success is rooted in the strong backing the alliance received from voters for the significant improvements in infra­structure, such as new highways and bridges, and well-directed welfare schemes that reached intended beneficiaries. Bihar voters chose to back the Modi-Nitish model, recognising that Central as­sistance to the state’s programmes was a big factor in the positive changes in their daily lives. The historic victory for the allies who first joined hands in the 1996 Lok Sabha elections when JD(U)’s former avatar as Samata Party was led by Nitish Kumar and the late George Fernandes. Despite a few shocks along the way, the alliance has endured as Modi’s rise on the national firmament provided fresh energy to NDA by way of a political model that is a shrewd mix of caste equations, development and Hindutva.