The New Maharashtra–Jharkhand Impetus

THE RESULTS OF the Haryana election announced on October 8 put a bounce back into the steps of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leaders in Maharashtra who had been viewing a testing contest fast bearing down on them with some trepidation. It was not that the Haryana electoral scene is relatable to Maharash­tra, but BJP’s comprehensive win infused the party with hope that the setback in the Lok Sabha election where the I.N.D.I.A. bloc won 30 of the state’s 48 seats, is not irreversible. After all, BJP had slipped to five seats in Haryana from the 10 it held and the uptick in Congress’ fortunes was seen as inexorable. The narrow difference in the popular vote in Maharashtra with the Opposition getting 43.7 per cent and the National Democratic Alliance

(NDA) garnering 43.5 per cent offered hope. The BJP-led alliance had indeed registered a decline of around 8 per cent but it was a fine consolidation of votes that upset the NDA’s cart with the Opposition winning bell weather seats like Latur, Nanded, Beed, Dhule, and Kolhapur. Armed with hindsight, the momentum could be slowed, and with some shrewd tactical moves, even re­versed, the BJP think tank felt.

Maharashtra and Jharkhand will deliver their verdicts on No­vember 23, just ahead of the Winter Session of Parliament where the Modi government plans to move important legislation, including the Wakf (Amendment) Bill, 2024, which aims to trim the powers of Wakf Boards, and is being bitterly opposed by the I.N.D.I.A. bloc. The state elections will not alter the arithmetic in Parliament where BJP is dependent on allies Janata Dal (U) and Telugu Desam Party (TDP) but will impact how NDA and the Opposition approach the Session. BJP’s win in Haryana undercut Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s narra­tive about the Lok Sabha results being a vindication of his claim that India’s de­mocracy is imperiled and was a vote in support of pledges, such as the promise to conduct a caste census. While it pro­vided BJP with a much-needed breather, the party needs to maintain its winning streak in the current round of elections. The perception that BJP remains India’s premier political force will impact the party’s ability to influence allies and re­duce the resistance to its economic and political reform agenda. Though the re­sistance of the I.N.D.I.A. bloc is likely to be unabated, incidents such as the public uproar over the Kolkata rape and mur­der of a young doctor have weakened some of its key constituents like the Trinamool Congress. The results in the two states will have an outsized importance.

Aware there is much at stake, the BJP leadership has worked hard to smoothen rough edges within the party over the alliance with Ajit Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and state leaders have emphasised the need to defeat the Sharad Pawar NCP-Uddhav Shiv Sena-Congress combine. As a leader put it, BJP’s defeat will be a poor consolation for any disquiet over the Ajit NCP’s inclusion in NDA. In an internal discussion, a leader argued that sometimes to get the better of Pakistan, an alliance or understanding with Afghanistan may prove useful. The splits in NCP and Shiv Sena, preceded by the unprecedented instance of pre-poll ally Sena deserting BJP and presence of rebels have muddied the electoral scene. However, BJP functionaries feel a better seat distribution and a mix of Hindutva and state-specific promises will see NDA, known as Mahayuti (grand alliance) in Maharashtra, strike a chord with voters. “There is a view among voters, an undercurrent, that the results of the Lok Sabha elec­tion went too far against BJP. The discontent over some issues was not so severe as to warrant such a result. There is a course correction now,” Vinay Sahasrabuddhe, BJP national executive member, told Open. There are fierce battles underway, particu­larly in Marathwada, the seat of the Maratha reservation demand, but BJP hopes the meta themes symbolised by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “Ek hain toh safe hai (We are safe is we are united)”pitch, which is a modified version of Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s more direct “Batenge toh Katenge (We will perish if we are divided)” slogan, will work.

Maratha quota activist-leader Manoj Jarange’s decision not to put up candidates is being studied carefully. On the one hand, the strategy is expected to prevent a split in anti-BJP votes, but it also signals his political tilt, something that the BJP bush telegraph is not wasting time in conveying to voters in Marathwada. BJP has insisted that its government has actually delivered reservations to Kunbi Marathas while the previous Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government failed to defend the case in courts. BJP is on the back foot in the region as was evident in the Lok Sab­ha election, but would hope to escape a whitewash as its schemes like the Ladki Bahin Yojana have kicked in, improv­ing the party’s image in rural areas and other regions in the state. The party has steadfastly stood by OBCs promising that there will be no dilution in their benefits due to the new quota. Riding two boats in not easy, but so far, the OBCs do not seem to have risen in revolt, something that will provide succour to BJP.

The I.N.D.I.A. bloc strategy revolves around a slew of populist promises that include a pledge to increase the monthly payouts to eligible women from the `1,500 currently offered by the Mahayuti government to `3,000, a commitment to a caste-based census and removal of the 50 per cent cap on reservations, `4,000 for unemployed youths, and a `25 lakh health cover on the lines of the scheme that operated in Rajasthan when the party was in office. The basic guarantee-based model is not dissimilar from the manifesto Congress had releasedin Karnataka in May 2023, which it believes helped it win the state. The party has persisted with the approach despite indifferent responses to its guarantees in Madhya Pradesh and the downright rejection of the party’s governments in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan a few months after the Karnataka election. While the Opposition MVA tries to match NDA’s welfare and populist push, it is seeking a com­plete consolidation of Muslim votes that powered it in the Lok Sab­ha elections. The prime minister’s “unity” pitch aimed at keeping OBCs, tribals and Dalits within the BJP tent is a response to minority consolidation in favour of the I.N.D.I.A. bloc and seeks to make good the vote depletion that hurt BJP. Both Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray are looking to invoke old loyalties and nostalgia, present­ing BJP as an interloper that broke parties for political gain. Similar appeals have worked for Pawar in the past, but it is unclear to what extent a large number of new and younger voters will be swayed by the sentiment.

Though Jharkhand is a smaller state, its politics vary across regions with BJP and its allies facing a greater degree of difficulty in Kolhan, where it won no seat in the 2019 election. This time, it hopes that new entrant Champai Soren will boost its prospects while two former chief ministers have a reason to ensure victory with close relatives in the fray. In 2019, BJP’s prospects were hurt by a proposal to amend the Chota Nagpur Tenancy Act and the Santhal Pargana Tenancy Act that sought to allow ‘non-farm’ use of holdings while keeping ownership in tribal hands. The idea was to allow tribals to make more from their lands and pre­vent covert sales but was read as a dilution of tribal rights. The Jharkhand election in 2019 took place soon after the Maharash­tra developments where Uddhav Thackeray staged a stunning exit from NDA and left the BJP leadership in a distracted frame of mind. The unsettled period saw BJP lose its partner All Jharkhand Students Union, which further eroded its electoral prospects. This time, the BJP-AJSU alliance is intact and the combine has attacked the Hemant Soren government for lacklustre governance and on the emotive issue of not checking outsiders who are buying land and marrying locals. The Hindutva element is upfront in BJP’s bid to woo tribals by warning about the ruling Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, Congress and Rashtriya Janata Dal being complacent in a land jihad waged by Bangladeshi infiltrators. The allegation has gained surprising traction, with feedback encouraging BJP leaders to focus on the issue with increased intensity.

The Hindutva element is upfront in BJP’s bid to woo tribals by warning about the ruling Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, Congress and Rashtriya Janata Dal being complacent in a land jihad waged by Bangladeshi infiltrators

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The release of Hemant Soren on bail and his reinstatement as chief minister certainly prevented JMM from further disintegra­tion after Champai Soren’s exit and helped seal a seat-sharing deal with allies, but the leader has his task cut out after his attempt to improve his ratings through an ill-fated police recruitment drive backfired. The deaths of aspirants in the physical standards test where they had to run 10km in an hour has generated much more bad publicity than any actual recruitment. Still, JMM is a force to reckon with and does have a connection with its core constituency, and Congress and RJD are useful additions. The contest is expected to be close and JMM leaders like Soren’s wife Kalpana Soren are raking up fears over BJP’s ‘divisive’ politics and claiming that the saffron party is raising the infiltration issue to mislead tribals and pointing to its past attempts to change the ten­ancy acts. Ground reports suggest the JMM government’s patchy record has generated resentment and BJP’s chances depend on the success of its poll pitch on issues like infiltration and whether the gambit to import leaders like Champai Soren pays off.

Soon after he returned in October from the US, where he had attended engagements at the United Nations, Modi plunged into the Haryana polls addressing rallies across the state. The move paid dividends as his campaign strengthened BJP’s position and his frontal attack on Congress leader and former Chief Minister Bhupinder Hooda and his son Deepender—referring to them dismissively as “baap aur betu”—tilted the scales in BJP’s favour. The win helped restore confidence of the party rank and file. Modi is now energetically touring Maharashtra and Jharkhand attack­ing Congress over ‘appeasement’ politics, reminding voters that it was BJP that extinguished Article 370 in Jammu & Kashmir, while the Opposition party had supported the status quo. This had meant that provisions of the Constitution never applied in full in J&K, an argument Modi used to counter Rahul Gandhi’s call for a caste census to support the rights of the disadvantaged classes. Congress continues to oppose the extension of the Constitution penned by Dalit icon BR Ambedkar in J&K as it supports a govern­ment that seeks to restore Article 370 in J&K, he said, arguing the so-called commitment to the weaker sections is barely skin deep. The real agenda, he warns voters, is to divide society on caste lines and weaken social unity, completing an argument encapsulated by the “Ek hain to safe hai” slogan. The elections are a mix of state and national issues, but BJP’s strategy to frame a larger narrative and reprise the Hindutva plank are evident and point to an inter­nal stock taking over the Opposition’s success in weaning away certain social segments. This erosion, along with a strong Muslim mobilisation, boosted MVA and helped it win seats in all regions, displacing BJP from its pole position. The script could change but the inflection points are hard to assess in close and hard-fought elections.

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Rajeev Deshpande

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