Why Nitish Seems Ready to Return to NDA

The change of guard in the Janata Dal (United) organisation just ahead of the New Year was, in retrospect, a clear pointer to developments that have political circles in a tizzy. JD(U) leader Lallan Singh, known for his antipathy towards Bharatiya Janata Party and seen as a key element behind JD(U)’s rapprochement with Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal, made way for Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar.

With Kumar formally back at the helm of affairs, political discussions within the JD(U) quickened as the chief minister grew increasingly wary of cross-currents within the INDIA opposition bloc he had said he would support. The role of Congress perplexed Kumar’s team, as the bloc selected Mallikarjun Kharge as leader of the opposition alliance. This happened even as there was no word on Kumar’s “designation” and reports of Congress seeking a “consensus” on his name for the post of convenor sounded unconvincing. In any case, once Kharge (and by implication Congress) was to lead the alliance, what was the value, if at all any, of posts like convenor?

JD(U) leaders were not impressed by claims that Kharge was gaining public “acceptance” based on his Dalit credentials. The recent BJP sweeps in the heartland states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh reflect Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s standing with voters and there was no evidence that Kharge was making any difference either for Congress or the Opposition. JD(U) was sceptical about Kharge being considered for a “bigger role”, convinced he remains a convenient proxy for the Gandhis just as is the case with his being Congress president.

If Kumar does complete the speculated switch back to the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), it would be because he has concluded that there is no leadership role for him in the INDIA alliance. His unease over various matters big and small, including naming of the opposition alliance, seems to have culminated in the sobering realisation that the coalition is unlikely to be cohesive and Congress has little time for his thoughts on the matter. On the other hand, BJP’s stock seems to have risen.

There were, it is understood, other troubling developments. There were disconcerting reports of RJD getting in touch with JD(U) legislators, broaching the possibility of leaving their party. This was cause for worry as the RJD-Congress-Left combine has 114 seats and the majority mark is 122. On the other hand, JD(U) numbers are a modest 45, not too big a challenge for a resourceful opponent. While Congress seems to have belied JD(U)’s expectations, Kumar found – and this could not have been a surprise – that RJD’s patronage-based governance style remains unchanged.

Kumar’s comments on “dynastic politics” at a rally to commemorate socialist icon Karpoori Thakur drew a sharp response from Lalu’s daughter Rohini Acharya who tartly remarked that people who could not see their own shortcomings threw mud at others and how self-proclaimed socialists changed loyalties with the wind. The tweets brought the politics that was brewing to the surface and it is likely that another change of guard might happen on Sunday.

JD(U) leaders do not seem overly bothered by the Bihar assembly speaker Awadh Chaudhary being an RJD legislator. It is felt that numbers cannot be brushed aside – JD(U)’s 45 and NDA’s 82 — particularly once the Governor recognises the alliance and asks it to prove its majority on the floor of the House.

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