Dial D for Dhaka

The golden rule of Bangladesh politics has seen the winning side prioritising vengeance on its rival, seeking to cripple the loser in such a way that it ceases to be a threat. In its previous stint in office, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) headed by Khaleda Zia lost no time in set­tling scores with its opponents. A report of a judicial commission in 2011 indicted BNP supporters for unleashing violence against Hin­dus and Awami League activists soon after BNP won the 2001 elec­tion. The commission, set up on the orders of the Bangladesh high court, probed reports of murder, rape and looting in Hindu areas soon after the election results were announced. BNP gained a major­ity on its own and along with allies Jamaat-e-Islami, the Jatiya Party and Islami Oikya Jote ousted the Awami League by a large margin. BNP denounced the commission’s findings as politically motivated and while the Awami League government promptly said it would file cases against the accused, there was more than a grain of truth in the allegations of violence the commission uncovered.

The tide had turned with the Awami League regaining office, and this time a long stint of 15 years saw Sheikh Hasina consolidate power, winning her fifth term as prime minister in January this year. Her sudden flight to India in the face of swelling street protests in major Bangladeshi cities has, ironically enough, led to lynchings and mob violence reminiscent of what happened in 2001. Hasina’s stay in Delhi is likely to be a temporary measure, with reports sug­gesting she might seek residence elsewhere. It is a matter of relief that Hasina was able to leave Dhaka safely under the escort of the army and there was no repeat of the 1975 military coup. Yet, the Hasina chapter is over and her return to Bangladesh is unlikely in the foreseeable future, and India needs to deal with a rapidly unfold­ing situation with Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus sworn in as interim prime minister. India’s first priority is to impress on Yunus the need to restore order on the streets and a clampdown on ele­ments targeting Hindu households. Hindus have been easy targets in Bangladesh with Islamists regularly turning on them. A social media post of dubious authenticity during the 2021 Durga puja showed the Quran placed at the feet of a Hindu deity led to attacks on Hindus. A year earlier, a Facebook post purportedly in support of the Charlie Hebdo cartoons denigrating Prophet Muhammad saw Hindus being singled out for violent retribution.

Continued violence and atrocities against Hindus can quickly complicate the government’s approach to the situation in Ban­gladesh and its new government as the turmoil can harden atti­tudes in India. The economic linkages between the two countries, which have deepened significantly during Hasina’s tenure, do provide India leverage. Contacts between the Indian and Bangla­deshi armies are seen to be robust and the liaison should come in handy in putting across New Delhi’s concerns. Bangladesh Army Chief General Waker-uz-Zaman has so far come across as compe­tent and responsive in persuading Hasina to resign and providing her a safe exit. The army should be able to control the unrest once pent-up emotions are released, and India will see if Yunus under­stands the criticality of a semblance of normality being restored. There are mixed views on Yunus, with diplomats and security officials familiar with Bangladesh saying the founder of Grameen Bank, seen to have fathered micro-credit in rural areas, has lost some of his sheen. For one, they point out that the Yunus model had serious flaws, with reports of strong-arm tactics being used in loan recoveries from farmers charged steep interest rates. Cases of alleged corruption were filed against him—a conviction has been overturned in recent days—but were alleged to be politically motivated. It is his reputation as an economist and banker that will be under scrutiny in terms of how he prioritises stability and restoration of economic activity. If he does, it will provide com­mon ground between India and the new dispensation in Dhaka.

Yunus does not have an easy task at hand as he is a political light­weight and BNP, along with Jamaat and other forces, will want to return to centrestage. Since the army has invested in Yunus, he can expect its backing and it remains to be seen how long the in­terim government will run. Though guesswork is hazardous, the Yunus-army tango may continue for a while. The turn of events has seen the release of an ailing Khaleda Zia by an executive order signed by President Mohammed Shahabuddin after the collapse of the Awami League government. Her son Tarique Zia is now the de-facto BNP leader and reports suggest he is looking to return to Bangladesh. BNP’s efforts to build an ‘India out’ campaign along the lines of what was seen in the Maldives did not meet much success. In fact, the dependence on exports from India that cover the gamut of daily needs, in addition to a thriving informal trade, make such campaigns a non-starter even if India is blamed for being supportive of Hasina’s heavy-handed rule. A section of opinion feels India did “over invest” in the leader and was seen to have gone along with her reported manipulation of elections. Some of the sloganeering during the protests marked Hasina for her “pro-Hindu” leadings. A former security official feels the role of BNP and Jamaat is overstated as their capacity to mobilise street-level protests is limited, with the latter being a banned organisation. The desecration of statues of the founder of Bangladesh Sheikh Mujibur Rahman clearly points to the role of Jamaat and other Islamists, but the scale of protests is evidence of a wider uprising against Hasina. Her 2011 decision to scrap the provision of a caretaker government during the conduct of elections is seen as a serious error of judgement as it raised doubts over her subsequent electoral wins in contests boycotted by BNP. As an analyst put it, Hasina had grown overconfident that there was no real check to her authority and power.

A downturn in the economy in the past couple of years undercut the legitimacy of Awami League’s rule, with the informal market rate for foreign exchange more attractive than the formal avenues, prompting Bangladeshi expats to send remittances through the ‘Hundi’ route. A fall in remittances and decline in garment exports in view of slowing economies in Europe forced the government to approach international monetary institutions. A question asked after Hasina’s exit is whether India put all its eggs in one basket. It is not known whether the Indian establishment has maintained contacts with BNP, a possibility that cannot be ruled out. In the past there have been informal contacts with Pakistani leaders like Nawaz Sharif when he was in exile in London. What is undeniable is that India-Bangladesh ties made unprecedented progress in the past decade. The exchange of enclaves and the settling of the land boundary was a major breakthrough as was India’s acceptance of the delimitation of the India-Bangladesh maritime boundary as per the order of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague. In both instances, India gave up some territorial claims but was able to settle long-running disputes. In turn, Hasina carried out a crack­down on anti-India insurgents much more thoroughly than she did in the 1990s when she was previously in office. She facilitated bus services from Kolkata to Agartala, which provide a crucial mobility link for Indian citizens, as also train connectivity. Former diplo­mats who have served in Bangladesh feel that there is considerable goodwill for India among sections who understand the benefits of cooperation. In the era of social media, India’s polarised domestic discourse can impact opinion in Bangladesh too.

Most analysts agree endemic corruption in Bangladeshi soci­ety and the fact that the country has been ‘lightly governed’ even at the best of times make it difficult to assess how the currently unsettled situation will evolve. India will hope economic and security imperatives prevail, allowing more normal engage­ment that is essential to both nations. Prolonged violence or a deteriorating economy can create a refugee influx that will pres­ent a challenge to India. Some observers point out that Awami League leaders are as much targets for mobs as Hindus, cautioning against seeing attacks on minorities in isolation. The propensity of anti-Hindu violence to inflame attitudes in India is, however, significant. As some seasoned commentators have argued, India needs to play a patient hand, as it did when the Taliban took over Afghanistan, or when an anti-India government assumed office in the Maldives. There is a balance to be struck between convey­ing concerns about the safety of minorities in Bangladesh and preserving the commercial and trade activities that are equally important to both countries.

BangladeshIndia-BangladeshMuhammad YunusNarendra ModiprotestsSheikh Hasinaviolence