Two Billion and Counting

THE MUCH-DELAYED Census will commence in 2027, 16 years after the last such exercise was conducted. But no sooner had the Centre an­nounced the step on Monday, June 16, that bick­ering began about caste not being mentioned in the notification. This was expected given India’s hyper-competitive politics where no opportunity for gain is left untouched. In the din another marker of much greater moment was not even mentioned: religion.

A new report by Pew Research Center, a US-based think-tank— ‘How the Global Religious Landscape Changed from 2010 to 2020’—highlights what has been known for a while. Islam is the most rapidly growing faith across the world. Adherents of Islam numbered two billion in 2020 worldwide, adding 346.8 million members since 2010. The Asia-Pacific region accounted for 58.7 per cent of the world’s Muslim population in 2020. The numbers given by Pew Research are based on surveys and projections from censuses across different countries. Because of the different times at which such censuses are conducted, these numbers are not fully comparable with aggregates from individual countries. The report noted: “At least 65 countries delayed their censuses, most of which originally were planned for 2020 or 2021.”

Even if one accounts for this factor, one trend is clear: “In ev­ery region, Muslims grew at a faster rate than the non-Muslim population, with one exception.” This was in the Latin America- Caribbean region. The report also noted: “The number of Muslims around the world grew 21% between 2010 and 2020, from 1.7 billion to 2.0 billion. Muslims grew twice as fast as the rest of the world’s population, which expanded by 10% during the same decade. As a result, Muslims grew as a share of the global popula­tion, from 24% to 26%.” (Emphases added).

This trend is in line with an earlier projection, issued by Pew Research in 2017, noting: “Between 2015 and 2060, the world’s population is expected to increase by 32%, to 9.6 billion. Over that same period, the number of Muslims—the major religious group with the youngest population and the highest fertility—is projected to increase by 70%.”

What matters for India are population trends in the Asia- Pacific and particularly those in the South Asian region. Here, the Muslim population increased by 16.41 per cent between 2010 and 2020. The countries in South Asia include India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal. Bhutan had a negligible number of believers in Islam. The number of Muslims in this region was close to 42.43 per cent of India’s population in 2020.

Two factors—age structure and fertility—account for the dramatic increase in the worldwide Muslim population during this period. “In 2010, Muslims had a relatively advantageous age structure, while Jews, Buddhists and the religiously unaffili­ated were at a demographic disadvantage. (Hindus are relatively young, but they are concentrated in countries with relatively low life expectancy),” the report noted.

On fertility, the report noted that “Muslims were estimated to have the highest total fertility rate, with an average of 3.1 children per woman in the 2010-15 period, according to a previous Pew Research Center study. Christians followed with 2.7 children.” The number for Hindus was 2.4, just a tad above the replacement level—the total fertility rate needed to maintain its size—of 2.1. These trends, as the earlier report issued in 2017 noted, are ex­pected to continue until 2060.

THE PEW REPORT has interesting numbers about Hinduism, India’s major religion, as well: “The number of Hindus worldwide grew 12% from 2010 to 2020, rising from a little less than 1.1 billion to nearly 1.2 billion. Since non- Hindus grew at about the same rate, Hindus remained stable as a percentage or share of the global population.” The last point was emphasised more than once in the report.

The report stated: “There was a subtle shift in the geographic concentration of Hindus between 2010 and 2020. The share of the world’s Hindus living in Asia and the Pacific fell slightly (down 0.2 points), while the percentage of Hindus residing in North America and the Middle East-North Africa region inched up, each by 0.1 point.” Much of this had to do with the migration of high-skilled people from India to these regions. This is in stark contrast to the more or less unskilled flows of illegal migrants from India’s neighbourhood into the country.

The stability of the Hindu population, at least in India, is due to the falling fertility rates. This has been shown in multiple studies conducted in India. The 2019-20 National Family Health Survey (NFHS) showed that only one state—Bihar—had a high Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 3.0. The other state that had a relatively high TFR was Meghalaya at 2.9. Uttar Pradesh (UP) had a TFR of 2.4 while Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan stood at 2.0. In the previous edition of the NFHS, (NFHS 4, 2015-16), UP had a TFR of 2.7. For Bi­har, this figure was 3.4, Madhya Pradesh 2.3, and Rajasthan 2.4. In effect, the most populous states were witnessing a decline in their TFR, presaging a fall in the size of their population. This is a big reason for the overall stability of the Hindu population in India.

“India—the birthplace of Hinduism—has more Hindu resi­dents than any other country, with 95% (or 1.1 billion) of the global Hindu population.” This is not the case for the two globe-spanning religions—Christianity and Islam—and the popula­tions adhering to those faiths are much more evenly distributed across the world as compared to Hinduism that is essentially localised in India and Nepal. Any demo­graphic shifts in these two homeland countries are worth noting.

These numbers are a reason for concern in India. Its two neighbours— Pakistan and Bangladesh—are now hostile not just to India but to the Hindu minorities within them. In the case of Bangladesh, the illegal immigration of people from its territory into India’s northeastern and eastern states is a fact that can no longer be denied. Until very recently, any such concern was auto­matically dubbed “communal”. But the migration of such large numbers cannot be tucked away in some corner.

Usually, the data on religion from a Census arrives a year or so after the conclusion of the enumeration exercise. For the Census that will be­gin in 2027, this data will arrive at the earliest in 2028. By then it would have been 17 years since the last detailed, state-by-state update on these numbers. It won’t be surpris­ing if there are voices that express surprise or even shock at demograph­ic reverberations that emerge from the Census.

What matters for India is not the absolute number of its Mus­lim population but the numbers from sensitive border states like Assam among others, which have been bearing the brunt of these large population inflows as well as the growth in population de­rived from the illegal immigrants who have settled earlier. In theory, with a falling TFR like other states, Assam, too, should see stabilisation in its population. But what matters here is the inter se distribution between Hindus and Muslims. This is not captured by the overall TFR for the state. Assam had a TFR of 2.4 under NFHS 3 (2005-06); it fell to 2.2 under NFHS 4 (2015-16); and to 1.9 under NFHS 5 (2019-21). But the ground reality in that state as well as some other border states tells a different story. In Lower Assam districts from South Salmara Mankachar all the way to Ka­mrup Metropolitan, the size of the Muslim population cannot be explained by TFR and demographic projections. The wave upon wave of illegal immigration from Bangladesh is the factor at work.

At the moment, there are regular reports of illegal immigrants from Bangladesh being detained and deported from different states. But these efforts, necessary as they are, are hardly a solu­tion for a population far bigger. So far, the ‘solutions’ suggested to prevent such flows from Bangladesh have proved to be non-starters. These include giving ‘work permits’ to migrants and then after these permits expire, ensuring they return to their country. The ability to send such migrants back, however, depends cru­cially on the economic conditions there. At one time Bangladesh was considered the “next miracle” economy. In the last year of Sheikh Hasina’s tenure as prime minister, Bangladesh began ex­periencing pronounced turbulence in its economy, forcing the government to approach the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for help. Since her ouster, conditions have worsened further. With Islamic radicals now holding the country hostage, its economic prospects are bleak.

In this context, it is interesting to note that Muhammad Yunus, the chief adviser to the interim government of Bangladesh, has repeatedly referred to India’s northeastern states as standalone entities. One of the statements was made before a delegation of Chinese business leaders. The statements reflect a political outlook as well as a demographic reality where Bangladesh, which has one of the most adverse man-to-land ratios in the world, yearns to break out of its current impasse.

In such conditions, managing the huge illegal population that belongs to a different faith is a challenge. The problem is especially acute in Assam where the vast bulk of these im­migrants have managed to acquire citizenship and are now a monolithic bloc of voters. The rapid increase in Muslim num­bers, especially in the east and Northeast, is not a ‘communal’ issue but one of India’s fraying flanks and is a security and territorial integrity concern that is at par with the other security challenges faced by the country. The coming Census is bound to bring disturbing news.

high fertility ratehigh growthMuslim populationnew datayouth