Perfect Partner

THE SECOND TRUMP administration has hit the ground running and Donald Trump does not seem to be wasting much time in implementing its cam­paign promises. The rapidity of transformative changes across US domestic political space, executive powers and bureaucracy have gobsmacked the world. In its external relations too, the Trump administration’s seismic shifts in its security and economic approach to its friends, partners and allies alike have left its neighbours, Canada and Mexico, in a bind and Washing­ton’s transatlantic partner, Europe, at a fork in the road. Amidst this unpredictability and the Trump administration’s resolutely different stance on issues of trade, tariff, immigration and US’ role in the world, it was apposite and timely that the leaders of India and the US met earlier this month.

The Trump-Modi meet on February 13 in Washington proved strategic in several ways. The order of priority in which only a few heads of the state met Donald Trump before Narendra Modi carved a niche of its own. It was widely anticipated that the Trump administration would give the bilateral relationship a Trumpian imprint, if not carry out a strategic upgrade altogether. The optics and substance coming out of the Modi-Trump meet landed somewhere in between, combining continuity and en­hancement in ties. The “U.S.-India COMPACT (Catalyzing Op­portunities for Military Partnership, Accelerated Commerce & Technology) for the 21st Century” was launched as a new initia­tive by the two leaders to augment cooperation in defence ties, trade and technology exchange. The new COMPACT will be a time-bound and result-oriented agenda with some key deliver­ables lined up for this year.

The Modi-Trump meet once again reassured that defence and security relationship remains one of the most comprehensive dimensions in bilateral ties, successively accommodating the demands of the evolving threat landscape. The announcement of a new 10-year framework for the “U.S.-India Major Defense Part­nership in the 21st Century” marks an upgrade with the poten­tial to weave in additional channels that India’s “Major Defense Partner” (MDP) status could unravel in the next decade. One of the key aims set is to strengthen interoperability and defence industrial cooperation with India by expanding defence sales and co-production in India. Among other things, new procurements and co-production arrangements for Javelin Anti-Tank Guided Missiles and Stryker Infantry Combat Vehicles in India have been identified to be prioritised. India and the US also look to finalise procurement agreement for six additional P-8I Maritime Patrol aircraft to boost India’s intelligence, surveillance and reconnais­sance capabilities across the Indo-Pacific expanse. The Trump administration’s focus on India’s Strategic Trade Authorization-1 (STA-1), its Quad membership and a promise to review the Inter­national Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) were all in line with the purpose of streamlining bilateral “defense trade, technology exchange and maintenance, spare supplies and in-country repair and overhaul of U.S.-provided defense systems.”

The launch of a new initiative—the Autonomous Systems Industry Alliance (ASIA) – showcased that augmenting defence and security partnership to accommodate challenges of the next decade remains a priority. This step is intended to broaden indus­try partnerships between the two countries and possibly expand it to other countries in the Indo-Pacific once a production ecosys­tem is in place. Co-production and co-development of next-gen marine systems, AI-enabled counter Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) and towed array sonars through partnerships between Indian and American companies could be essential to how the two countries adapt to maritime challenges in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. Besides, the promise “to break new ground to sup­port and sustain the overseas deployments of the U.S. and Indian militaries in the Indo-Pacific” could mean that India and the US will likely step up in joint activities in the region in ways that may not have been implemented before. Perhaps, India and the US could broaden the implementation of the four foundational agreements between the two sides.

Agreements in other areas also signalled advancements. Plans to negotiate a new multi-sector Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) by the fall of 2025 for which leaders have committed to designate senior officials reflects a serious intent. The promise to increase bilateral energy trade and advance partnership across oil, gas, and civil nuclear energy may have been a bilateral gain but the commitment to “establish the United States as a leading supplier of crude oil and petroleum products and liquified natural gas to India” may cut both ways. Furthermore, the launch of the launch of the US-India TRUST (Transforming the Relationship Utilizing Strategic Technology) initiative and promise to expand space co­operation also augurs well for the bilateral relationship.

The second Trump administration certainly gave India-US relations a strategic uplift. While many of the new initiatives and promises remain to be implemented over the next few years, India showed the way in “the art of the deal”. Despite a multi-billion dollar trade surplus over the US and a reciprocal tariff plan announced by Trump minutes before his meeting with Modi, New Delhi secured a pathway with guardrails to work amicably with the Trump administration.

Within weeks of his presidency, the second Donald Trump administration is framing policies which seem to be enforcing strategic adaptation on its allies, partners and friends alike, possi­bly in that order. India’s somewhat ambiguous status, yet a special relationship, perhaps provides adequate cushion.

In a Napoleonic reminiscence, Trump recently tweeted, “He who saves his country does not violate any Law.” There is a resoundingly different tone to the Trump presidency than America’s previous presidents. Perhaps, the only president by way of groundbreaking decrees that comes closer to the second Trump presidency may be the Truman presidency. If the post- World War II emergency provided a pressing context to Truman’s decisive steps, Trump’s rationale lies in America’s rapid descent into a liberal and socio-political decline on the back of policies by Democratic presidencies, particularly since the Obama admin­istration. As such, the second Trump administration has both purpose and urgency recentred for the next four years. While it means fundamental changes to America’s domestic scene, it ought to redo Washington’s external relations as well. Amidst this chronicle of a turbulence foretold, India could be one of the few countries that could manage a stable relationship with the US in the next four years.

diplomacyDonald TrumpIndia-US relationsNarendra Modipartnershipstrategic interest