NDA set to form govt but major gains for I.N.D.I.A. allies

Proving exit polls wrong, Congress and the I.N.D.I.A. bloc posted a much stronger than expected performance even though a BJP-led NDA government headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi looks set to return to office although with reduced numbers that are well short of the “400 par” target. After winning the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections with a majority of its own, BJP will be dependent on allies like TDP and JD(U) for numbers in Parliament.

The results are a major departure from what most exit polls had predicted, with losses for BJP in many major states. When EVMs began to disgorge the results and trends solidified by around 1PM, it became apparent that BJP had suffered a serious setback in the key battleground state of Uttar Pradesh (UP) where its tally slipped steeply from 62 to 32. More worryingly for BJP, the Samajwadi Party (SP) was in the lead with 37 seats and Congress ahead in eight.

Congress was closing in on 100 seats, a big jump from 52 it held in 2019, on the back of improved  performances in Karnataka, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Haryana besides UP. With the three-figure tally in sight, Congress can rightly claim a revival of fortunes though the party will still be sitting on the opposition benches. The opposition space will, however, be much noisier and the rejuvenated Congress, SP, DMK and Trinamool benches will prove a challenge for the government in Parliament.

The 2024 Lok Sabha election was a referendum on Prime Minister Modi, with the leader pitching himself as the mascot of BJP and NDA, seeking a renewed mandate on the basis of his record in office that includes a strong economy and major decisions, such as rolling back Article 370 in Jammu & Kashmir and consecration of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya. The Modi government also counted on its success in handling the Covid pandemic better than many other nations and delivery of welfare programmes that include direct benefit schemes and a massive infrastructure push.

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi will get a big fillip from the results after exit polls showed another poor day at the hustings. His campaign against the Modi government over the alleged erosion of democratic values and promise of a caste census as a corrective to counter inequality will get a legitimacy it had lacked. The results will encourage Rahul to sharpen this plank and claim that the have-nots are getting a raw deal. He will also argue the government is using official agencies to silence and browbeat the opposition.

The good news for BJP comes from Odisha where it is on the verge of unseating the Naveen Patnaik government which has been in office for five terms. BJP also did well in the Lok Sabha polls in the state, routing BJD which won just one of the state’s 21 seats. NDA, led by TDP, will be forming a government in Andhra Pradesh as well with the YSR-CP party led by Jagan Mohan Reddy resoundingly rejected by voters. BJP also won all 29 seats in Madhya Pradesh and all seats in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

In his third term, Modi has the tall task of leading a reduced BJP and dealing with allies in a way he has not had to while rebuilding the party’s base. With BJP losing seats in many states, the big message seems to be that the national narrative that framed the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections lost its appeal in 2024. BJP’s prospects took a hit due to local incumbencies and incompatibility of alliances as in Maharashtra where an unwieldy coalition is in office. The unhappiness of the Jat community appeared to have hurt BJP in Rajasthan and Haryana where the community has felt itself sidelined.

The new leadership in Rajasthan failed to pick up the voter issues but the BJP government in UP does not have a similar excuse given that the party has been in office since 2017 after winning big in the 2014 Lok Sabha election.

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Rajeev Deshpande

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