Haryana win boosts BJP post-LS setback, NC winner in J&K

Exit poll predictions of a Congress sweep in Haryana proved totally off the mark as Bharatiya Janata Party scored a record-setting win in the state and will form a government for the third consecutive time. Unlike in 2019 it does not need additional support it had received from regional outfit Jannayak Janata Party and independents. BJP scored a clean victory crossing the half way mark of 45 seats in an assembly of 90.

BJP’s remarkable feat is powered by a successful reverse polarisation in response to the Jat community rallying behind Congress and incumbency against the state government. The Ahirwal belt in southern Haryana and the north-eastern and western regions stood by BJP. Congress’s successes came in the northern part of the state contiguous to the Punjab border where the farm agitation against BJP seems to have had an impact. Apart from this tract, the central swathe of Rohtak-Jhajjar returned Congress candidates.

The results are a set-back to Congress and opponents of the Modi government who tried to drum up support over the agitation of farm unions against the Centre and the Agniveer recruitment scheme for the armed forces. BJP’s victory is a thumping endorsement of its decision to bet on chief minister Nayab Saini, who hails from the OBC category, by replacing Manohar Lal Khattar months before the assembly polls. Above all, it reaffirms Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s appeal as campaigner and vote-getter for BJP. It is a disappointment for Congress leader Rahul Gandhi who was looking to build on the party’s improved showing in the Lok Sabha polls.

The results in Jammu and Kashmir mark a major comeback for the National Conference led by Omar Abdullah who is set to be chief minister. NC partner Congress did poorly, winning just six seats. But NC’s impressive 42 seats placed it just a little short of majority on its own. Independents have won lesser seats than anticipated and the NC’s success makes their role irrelevant. This is a setback for leaders like Lok Sabha MP Engineer Rashid and independents backed by the banned Jamaat-i-Islami. BJP has held its ground in Jammu, where it swept the region sharply differentiating it with the Kashmir Valley.

The stage is set for the next political battle in Jammu and Kashmir over the restoration of statehood and the powers that will be granted in this restoration. The process may, however, take time. Under its current Union Territory status, authority over law and order and postings of central service officers in J&K lie with Lt Governor Manoj Sinha. While Abdullah did not shy of separatist rhetoric while campaigning, even saying the hanging of Parliament attack convict Afzal Guru served no purpose, just how he would position himself as chief minister remains to be seen.

Despite BJP’s second term in office in Haryana marked by governance gaps, voters in urban areas barring a few seats like Ambala city have backed the saffron party, apparently willing to give in another chance. Though Congress has been out of office since 2014, memories of corruption and pedestrian governance appear to have lingered. An under-current of Hindutva polarisation over issues due to the activities of cattle smuggling mafia and Gau rakshaks can be detected in south Haryana. Last year’s communal violence in Nuh when a Hindu religious yatra was attacked has also played a part.

In terms of vote shares, it is a dead heat with BJP receiving 40% and Congress 39.25 of the vote. The vote shares not only indicate the hard-fought nature of the election, but point to a better and more beneficial distribution of votes for BJP. Congress has benefitted from Jat mobilisation in its favour and also received Dalit votes but this was not enough to overcome the non-Jat social coalition of Yadavs, Brahmins, Chauhans, Punjabis and OBC castes, the last being a significant presence in the state.

In the case of votes of Dalit communities, the anti-BJP effect was diluted in southern Haryana where a wider mobilisation was needed to upset the BJP applecart. In other regions, the underlying caste contradictions – which were more evident in an election that would decide the next chief minister – had a dampening effect on Dalit voting as compared to the Lok Sabha elections. In the Parliament elections, the Congress margins were significantly higher in segments with higher Dalit population. This does not seem as much the case in the assembly polls.

Assembly elections 2024BJPCongressDalit votersHaryanaManohar Lal KhattarNarendra Modi