Delimitation Decoded

The last delimitation exercise in 2008 based on the 2001 Census took place after a gap of 30 years. Unlike previous three commissions which met regularly every 10 years, the panel headed by Justice Kuldip Singh did not have the remit to increase the total number of Lok Sabha and state assembly seats. The Constitution (84th Amendment) Act, 2001, piloted by then Law Minister Arun Jaitley in Parliament, extended the freeze on delimitation, due to lapse after the current Census was published, till 2026. The reasons for curbs on fresh delimitation were the same as earlier: to motivate states to pursue the goal of population stabilisation.

Jaitley informed Parliament that the Vajpayee government had decided to undertake readjustment and rationalisation of territorial constituencies without altering the number of seats so as to remove any “imbalance” caused by uneven growth of population and electorate in different constituencies. Soon after, the Kuldip Singh Commission was set up as per the Delimitation Act, 2002. The commission applied itself to rationalising constituency size, setting right anomalies such as the Outer Delhi seat having 3.1 million people and adjoining Chandni Chowk just 35 lakh.

Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin has raised fears that since the constitutional freeze on delimitation is due to get over soon, a redistribution of constituencies on the basis of population will disadvantage southern states with a better record of family planning. As of now, the delayed 2021 Census is yet to begin and there is no indication when the next delimitation commission will be formed. Given the need to implement the Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam (160th Constitutional Amendment), 2023, that provides for 33 per cent seats for women in Lok Sabha and assemblies, delimitation must happen, but its contours are far from evident.

While South India has recorded swifter progress in population control, data hides details. All communities have registered reduced birth rates, but the Muslim population is growing faster than other religious groups. The growth rates of religious groups further vary state to state. Will the next round of delimitation increase the number of seats in Lok Sabha and assemblies? And will states with higher population growth add more seats that those with lower birth rates? The answers are not available but delimitation commissions keep regional balance, tribal and Scheduled Caste representation and geographical factors in mind as seen in Assam in 2023 and Jammu & Kashmir in 2022.

Stalin’s call for an all-party meeting on delimitation follows his having similarly taken cudgels against the National Education Policy (NEP) for seeking to “impose” Hindi on Tamil Nadu. The question relating to NEP is not about making Hindi mandatory but provisions of the three-language formula that the language be offered a course of study. Private schools in Tamil Nadu affiliated with CBSE offer Hindi as a subject. It is state schools that do not, greatly disadvantaging students who need to travel and work in other parts of India. To equate not offering Hindi at all to resisting its so-called imposition is sheer dissimulation.

The chief minister’s move marks an early start to the campaign for the next election in Tamil Nadu due in April 2026. If more proof was needed, it came by way of Stalin’s X post on February 27, claiming dozens of languages such as Bhojpuri, Maithili, Awadhi, Braj, Bundeli, Garhwali, Kumaoni, Magahi, Marwari, Malvi, Chhattisgarhi, Santhali, Angika, Ho, Kharia, Khortha, Kurmali, Kurukh and Mundari have been swallowed by Hindi. Apart from the sheer disingenuousness, the objective is to drum up regional identity issues. Interestingly, the target is the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which though it won no seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, did get 11 per cent of the vote without either DMK or AIADMK as ally. Some of BJP’s known faces pushed AIADMK to third spot, the import of which would not be lost on Stalin as he seeks to revalidate his legacy.

War on Obesity

Speaking at his latest Mann Ki Baat, Prime Minister Narendra Modi touched on the obesity epidemic that India is going through, and in doing so, also launched a campaign against it. He spoke of how making small changes in one’s diet, like reducing oils by 10 per cent, could make your future free of diseases. The next day he put up a post on X nominating 10 people to “help strengthen the fight against obesity and spread awareness on reducing edible oil consumption in food.” He also requested them “to nominate 10 people each so that the movement gets bigger!” Those named were from a wide cross-section of society, including industrialist Anand Mahindra, Olympic  medallist Manu Bhaker, actor Mohanlal, and Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah.

Such a campaign reflects the rethink happening on how to combat lifestyle diseases, basing it on prevention. As Modi said in his talk, a range of ailments from diabetes to heart diseases are connected to obesity. The first line of defence ought therefore to address this factor, instead what people rely on are medicines which have to keep increasing in dosage because the underlying cause is only getting worse with time.

India has a serious problem on the obesity front. It is creeping up and so are ailments associated with it. Last year’s Economic Survey had noted, “For instance, as per NFHS (National Family Health Survey) data, 24.0 per cent of women and 22.9 per cent of men were overweight/obese in 2019-21, vis-à-vis 20.6 per cent and 18.9 per cent in 2015-16, respectively. In 50 years, the incidence of type-II diabetes has increased from less than 2 per cent in the 1970s to more than 20 per cent.” All this is a direct consequence of the population’s eating patterns. Until Indians become aware that being obese is not a natural state of being and should be addressed as a health condition, there will be no reversing the curve. Hopefully, those mentioned by the prime minister will pick up the torch and provide momentum to the campaign. (By Madhavankutty Pillai)

Newsmaker: Friedrich Merz

Europe’s Pilot

Is the victorious CDU leader Germany’s last hope?

ANGELA MERKEL HAD put an end to his political career 20 years ago. Sidelined from CDU, Friedrich Merz had returned to the corporate world and made a lot of money. After Merkel’s exit and through the shambolic chancellorship of Olaf Scholz, Merz emerged as the only senior German politician who understood what ailed Europe’s biggest economy, the deep structural problems slowing it down, and the overhaul needed—Germany had missed the digital bus—for Berlin to lead Europe again. He has taken the CDU-CSU to a respectable victory although the election narrative was dominated by the far-right AfD, ironically the one party with the least chance of making it to government.

A licensed pilot, Merz is the only West European leader who is not in denial about the geopolitical significance of the moment—the post-Cold War order is over. Vocal on Ukraine, Merz appeared to snub Donald Trump’s congratulatory overture, saying his priority is “to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that we can achieve real independence from the US step by step.” But his coalition partners would be watching. He has already scared the centre by collaborating recently with AfD in a failed attempt at tightening the immigration law. If the Brandmauer or political firewall against AfD, now the second-largest party in the Bundestag, is to endure and Germany is not to lose its sanity again, then much depends on the ‘boring’ 69-year-old who has moved CDU to Merkel’s right and still appears to have a plan. (By Sudeep Paul)

Noisemaker: Azam Tarar

Stale Claims

If it is Geneva and the UN Human Rights Council and Pakistan then a jaded Kashmir tune is par for the course. Despite repeated rebuffs at the UN where its attempts to raise Kashmir have come a cropper, Pakistan’s Law Minister Azam Tarar chose to repeat stale claims for denial of “self-determination” for people in the Union territory. In keeping with the robust response it has delivered in recent years to chants on Kashmir, the Indian delegation reminded the council of the sorry state of minority rights in Pakistan, and for good measure, reminded the neighbour that it survives on handouts. The successful election in Jammu & Kashmir and formation of National Conference-led government has dealt a serious blow to Pakistan’s anti-India propaganda.

Resignation

Nearly two weeks after Pope Francis fell ill, and although his doctors have claimed his health has shown signs of improvement, the question of what happens were the Pope to become too infirm to perform his duties, or worse, if he doesn’t make it through, abounds. Would he resign as he once suggested if he felt he has become too ill?

What has set off this chatter is the revelation that Vatican officials secretly met the Pope earlier this week. The Vatican earlier denied knowledge of the meeting, as per media reports, but later confirmed it, explaining it was held to secure the Pope’s signature to move forward on assembling cardinals to approve new saints. Curiously, Francis’ predecessor Pope Benedict XVI announced his resignation at a meeting of cardinals to discuss the canonisation of saints.

Resignation is not a popular choice among popes. When Pope Benedict resigned in 2013, he was the first to do so in nearly 600 years. A papacy has traditionally been viewed as a lifetime mission. Resigning makes it a more earthly affair, akin to holding an office.

The current pope has himself appeared divided on this issue. He told a newspaper in 2022 that he had prepared a letter of resignation if he became too ill. And yet, when he met a group of Jesuits in Congo later, he reportedly said, “Look… it’s true that I wrote my resignation… in case I had some health problem… However, this does not at all mean that resigning popes should become, let’s say, a ‘fashion’, a normal thing.”

Money Mantra

Bet on Metal

A contrarian investment approach amidst the headwinds in China

RISK AND RETURN are deeply connected to an investor’s ability to challenge prevailing market narratives. At this moment, the dominant narrative revolves around the Chinese economy and its ongoing struggles under Trump’s administration.

With trade tensions expected to rise, many believe China will continue facing economic pressure. However, to fully assess the situation, it is important to break things down into two parts.

First, will the US-China trade war escalate? Most likely, yes. Tariff conflicts are expected to intensify, keeping Chinese exports under strain. Second, is China’s current slowdown primarily a result of previous tariff wars? The answer is no.

The core issue lies in the country’s real estate sector, which expanded rapidly due to speculative investments. With excessive capacity build-up, the sector is now under stress, contributing to the broader economic slowdown.

China has encountered similar financial challenges in the past and has managed to navigate through them. If history is any indication, the current slowdown, though having lasted longer than expected, should eventually stabilise.

Given this context, a contrarian stance on metal stocks could be a strategic move. Market sentiment is often driven by fear, but looking beyond the immediate concerns reveals potential opportunities.

Another key factor supporting this view is the strength of the US economy. If the US continues its growth momentum, there is little justification for a decline in metal prices from current levels. A strong US economy supports industrial demand, which, in turn, keeps metal prices stable or even pushes them higher.

This view challenges the prevailing belief that metal stocks should be avoided due to China’s troubles.

Taking a contrarian approach in investing requires confidence and a long-term perspective. While the broader market reacts to short-term news cycles, investors willing to assess deeper economics are the ones who generate income and create wealth.  (By Ramesh Singh)

Trump’s Gaza Fantasy

US President Donald Trump recently shared an AI-generated video on Gaza that many of even his most loyal admirers found bizarre. In the clip, a devastated Gaza is reborn as an opulent coastal strip emblazoned with his own name, its decimated neighbourhoods rapidly transitioning into a gaudy resort town filled with skyscrapers, nightclubs and luxury hotels, and showing, among other things, a golden statue of Trump, visuals of Elon Musk lookalikes, and Trump and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sitting shirtless at a pool with drinks. This comes at a time when Trump has proposed taking control over Gaza, permanently removing the Palestinian population living there to countries like Egypt and Jordan, and making the enclave a massive real estate development, something which has been rejected by many other nations.

Azam TararFriedrich MerzMK StalinNarendra ModiNews BriefOmar Abdullah