A Bolder World Order

THE international security situation, frozen for long due to conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, thawed quickly after Donald Trump’s return to the White House. Whether the early gains of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas or conversations Trump has had with Russian leader Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky progress is unclear. There are forces that do not want hostilities to end. The lack of trust between contestants in both the wars is a serious hurdle. Any disruption in the return of Israeli hostages will mean fresh violence as pictures of the traumatised returnees stoke emotions.

Yet, Trump has brought energy and purpose to the discussions and broken new ground by re-connecting with Putin. His “offer” to redevelop Gaza may seem far-fetched but has shaken a lot of assumptions about the region. Though regional players dismissed Trump’s proposal, there is wariness about what he might do. This is not altogether a bad thing as Trump’s threat that there will be hell to pay if hostages are not released by the time he assumes office seems to have had an effect on Hamas and its principal sponsor, Iran.

If the current trajectory of events holds true, there are opportunities for India to negotiate the future of its bilateral relationship with the Trump administration. There are obvious risks that Trump’s threat of reciprocal tariffs can create complications, but there are opportunities too. The Modi government took some pre-emptive steps to rationalise tariffs in the Union Budget and the benefits of a trade deal, even a modest one, can help bridge the gap.

Unlike the previous Democratic administration where progress on trade and investment was slow despite the apparent enthusiasm of senior members of the Biden cabinet, Trump is open to striking a deal that offers tangible returns. Cooperation and investment in areas like defence, AI, agriculture, space and nuclear energy are doable and India would seek reciprocity just as the US wants to export more. The early meeting with Trump offers Modi a chance to prevent miscommunication and get a good measure of US priorities while explaining India’s perspectives and needs.

A rapprochement between the US and Russia will be a welcome development. A fallout of the Russian invasion of Ukraine was that Putin’s dependence on China grew exponentially. China became Russia’s chief supporter and key economic partner helping keep the Russian economy afloat. India’s diplomacy with Russia is strongly oriented to keeping Putin alive to New Delhi’s interests. Better US ties with Russia will heighten China’s unease over India’s relationship with Washington. This might make China more amenable to improving ties with India to prevent it from acting against its interests.

The fighting after the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2024 has significantly altered the power balance in the Middle East. Though Hamas continues to be in control of Gazans, it has taken a battering and might face more punitive action if it attracts the wrath of the Trump White House. The Hezbollah, Iran’s chief proxy in the region, are on the run in Lebanon while Tehran’s other ally, Bashar al-Assad, has fled Syria. All of this, coinciding with Trump’s return to office, strengthens Israel’s hand even though it had to accept terms of a ceasefire not entirely to its liking.

If the messy Ukraine war winds down, it will reduce global uncertainties about energy and foodgrain supplies. India could hope to work with its partners in the Middle East, Europe and the US to re-plug the ambitious India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC) that holds out the promise of a future for the Middle East beyond the de-humanising conflicts that have ravaged the region. In all of this, India remains a pivot with regard to China or as an acceptable interlocutor whose credentials are above board.

Modi’s AI Vision

On his sixth visit to France as prime minister, Narendra Modi arrived in Paris on February 10 before departing for the US two days later for a meeting with President Donald Trump. During his visit, he co-chaired the AI Action Summit with President Emmanuel Macron, pledging to prioritise inclusivity and transformation in emerging technologies.

At a time when China’s DeepSeek automated chatbot has disrupted the AI landscape, Modi met with tech CEOs to accelerate India’s AI transformation. Before leaving France, he posted on X (formerly Twitter): “A productive visit concludes, where I attended programmes ranging from AI, commerce, energy, and cultural linkages.” Notably, India is working towards developing a domestic large language model.

Speaking at the AI summit, Modi underscored the importance of skilling and re-skilling people in the Global South for an AI-driven future. On the sidelines of the summit, he met Indian-origin Google CEO Sundar Pichai to discuss AI investments in India.

To strengthen cooperation between India and France, Modi urged companies—particularly those in logistics, sustainability, and global trade—to collaborate. He made these remarks at the India-France CEOs Forum in Paris.

During his visit, Modi and Macron also travelled to Marseille to inaugurate an Indian consulate. While there, Modi posted on X: “In India’s quest for freedom, this city holds special significance. It was here that the great Veer Savarkar attempted a courageous escape.

I also want to thank the people of Marseille and the French activists of that time who demanded that he not be handed over to British custody.”

Following the AI Action Summit, co-chaired by India and France, a joint statement was released, endorsed by 58 countries, the European Union, and the African Union. The statement emphasised the need for a human-centric approach to technology, aiming to address inequalities in developing nations and support capacity-building across multiple sectors.
(By Ullekh NP)

The Big Picture

BengaluruFebruary 10, 2025: Wings of Pride Indian Air Force’s aerobatic team Suryakiran jet sprays the Tricolour on the first day of the Aero India 2025, at the Yelahanka air base

Newsmaker | Viatina-19

Cash Cow

An Andhra breed sells for a record ₹41 crore in Brazil

HERS WAS A ramp walk with a difference, as she has furry legs, unlike the aspirants of Miss Universe and other beauty pageant crowns. Yet, Viatina-19 is no stranger to titles, having won the Miss South America award earlier for her white coat and a prominent hump. Yes, she is a cow but no less valuable than her human counterparts.

The value of this 54-month-old cow recently sent shockwaves around the cattle-breeders’ market as she commanded a staggering price of $4.82 million (approximately ₹41 crore), a Guinness world record. The valuation is all the more astounding because the going price of cows at Brazil’s auction markets hover around $2,000.

Viatina-19 stands taller than many others. Being of the Ongole stock, she owes to her land of origin, in today’s Andhra Pradesh, not only the snowy white fur and noble profile but a whole lot of features that stand out in a world of climate vagaries, and widening cleavage in the terms of exchange between city and village, factory and farm. Apart from the huge weight of 1,101kg, Viatina-19 has achieved global recognition owing to its exceptional genetics, muscular build, and heat tolerance.

The Ongole stock not only breeds fast, it gifts into the chromosome of the offspring a robust immunity to survive in a tropical environment, and to produce calves faster than the loan matures. Little did the Portuguese traders know about the potential value of the Ongole breed of bovines when they shipped these to their more stable colony in South America.
(By Moinak Mitra)

Noisemaker | Jaya Bachchan

Tantrum Diva

Samajwadi Party Rajya Sabha MP Jaya Bachchan’s spats with the chair and ruling party MPs have often made headlines. The former actor and MP was back in the news for wrong reasons when her criticism of the Budget for not doing enough for the film industry degenerated into a slanging match with BJP after an MP interrupted her. She lashed out at the treasury benches, saying they were in the habit of speaking nonsense while arguing that the film industry paid high taxes. Previously her comment on Rajya Sabha Chairman Jagdeep Dhankhar’s body language incensed the chair. If Bachchan wanted to bat for Bollywood, she might have achieved the opposite. Entitlement is never attractive.

Ideas

Simplification

The new Income Tax Bill tabled in Parliament on February 13 by the finance minister is premised on simplification. The vagaries of time are the reason for it.

The Income Tax Act came into being in 1961 with provisions that were germane for that period. Society, however, is dynamic and changes in its makeup and ethos get incorporated into laws. This is done through amendments. The 1961 Act was amended nearly 65 times with more than 4,000 amendments, according to the government. Such complexity makes it increasingly cumbersome to enforce regulations, and people find it equally exhausting to comply. A new beginning is needed for a return to simplicity. The process will not stop because the cycle immediately starts all over again. Every year, the new Act will now begin to accumulate amendments. Systems become complex with time because it is the nature of human beings to refine things for the better. But often, they mistake complexity for progress. Someone who wants to eat healthy and minutely starts calculating every ingredient and its effects on the human body will wade into confusion without adequate dividends. Instead, those who go for simple tweaks, like reducing fats and processed food or eating more vegetables and giving up vices, find themselves healthier with less calculation. Simple things are easy to understand and follow.

Money Mantra

Wealth Wisdom
Unlocking long-term prosperity in the volatile market landscape

THE INDIAN STOCK market is currently navigating a bearish phase, a situation that understandably creates unease among retail investors. However, it is crucial to remember that market downturns are an inherent part of the market cycle and are often temporary.

Panic-driven selling, fueled by fear rather than reasoned analysis, frequently leads to missed opportunities for long-term gains. Instead of succumbing to impulsive reactions, investors should adopt a strategic approach, focusing on accumulating fundamentally sound companies with strong balance sheets, robust earnings, and long-term growth potential. Several sectors, including banking, information technology, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), and pharmaceuticals, often offer investment opportunities during market corrections.

Stock markets operate cyclically, experiencing periods of growth and contraction. Bearish phases, while unsettling, are a natural part of this process. These downturns should be viewed as opportunities by discerning investors to build wealth over time.

The key is to identify companies with consistent earnings growth, manageable debt, and a competitive advantage within their respective industries. Companies that consistently pay dividends provide an added degree of income stability even during periods of market volatility.

For investors utilising Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs), a bearish market can be particularly advantageous. Continuing, and even increasing, SIP contributions during a downturn can significantly enhance long-term returns through the principle of rupee-cost averaging.

Historical market data underlines the resilience of the Indian stock market. Past market crashes, such as the 2008 global financial crisis and the more recent 2020 Covid-19 induced crash, have shown that those who remained invested and added to their portfolios during these periods, reaped rewards when the market rebounded.
Echoing the wisdom of Warren Buffett, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” The current market correction, viewed through this lens, presents a potentially significant opportunity for long-term wealth creation. (By Ramesh Singh)

Viral

Chiranjeevi’s Prejudice

Telugu actor Chiranjeevi attracted much controversy recently when a video clip where he was seen expressing the wish to have a grandson went viral online. The comments were light-hearted in nature, with him referring to how the presence of so many granddaughters made him feel like the warden of a women’s hostel. But it also reflected a deep sexist bias. Chiranjeevi, who has five granddaughters, went on to say how he tells his son, the actor Ram Charan, to have a son so the family legacy may continue. There has traditionally been a widespread preference for having boys over girls, with female foeticide even being a big problem in some parts of the country until gender determination scans were outlawed. Having a famous personality expressing a preference for male children, however humourously, has unsurprisingly touched a raw nerve.

AI SummitAndhra cowChiranjeeviJaya BachchanNarendra ModiParisstock market