A Breach Dhaka Cannot Afford

BANGLADESH’S INTERIM GOVERNMENT has formally charged former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina for crimes she allegedly committed while in power, charges that also implicate former Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal. Those who hold power in Bangladesh at present are determined to penalise the former head of government as a means of effectively preventing her return home or to politics.

The indictment served on Sheikh Hasina also puts her in a quandary. Where does that place her as leader of the Awami League, banned though the party is? Observers in Dhaka wonder if she will now choose the option of stepping aside from the party leadership and go for a new leadership that could reorganise the party. The idea is far-fetched, given that under Sheikh Hasina no second tier of leaders emerged. Besides, in the 10 months since her fall last year, she has been unable to convince Bangladeshis that she is ready to hand over the reins of the party to a new leader or to a collective leadership.

The irony is that Sheikh Hasina’s legal woes come through the work of the very tribu­nal her government set in motion to try the collaborators of the 1971 Yahya Khan regime on charges of crimes against humanity. Today the court is firmly in the hands of anti-Awa­mi League elements. It is determined to ensure that neither Hasina nor anyone in her close circles find it easy to return to politics anytime soon, if at all. But history being what it has been in Bangladesh, it is not easy to suggest that Sheikh Hasina or her party will not bounce back in future. Indeed, talk of elections these days raises the crucial issue of any such exercise without the Awami League lacking credibility. In other words, elections without the party can only promise more instability.

Bangladesh’s political uncertainty deepens. In the past fortnight, conditions have generated a feeling of insecurity, both in terms of national politics and social life, which has left citizens guessing at what really could be happening in the corridors of power. The situation is a grim reminder of the chaos which defined the national scene in the early days of November 1975, when the country hovered between one developing political crisis and another, between coups and counter-coups, leaving citizens pondering the future of a nation founded just four years earlier.

Bangladesh has become entangled in the power play of geopolitics, to a point where a good number of governments beyond the country’s frontiers are getting involved to a degree that does not augur well for Dhaka. And the interim regime headed by Muhammad Yunus appears to be at sea. Not that anyone, given the anarchy since the Awami League government was overthrown in August last year, expected politics to stabilise under the current unconstitutional dispensation.

Circumstances have become exacerbated over the government’s moves to permit the opening of what has been described as a humanitarian corridor as a way of assisting the Rohingyas, who have been in Bangladesh for the last several years, through provisions of aid for them. The Yunus regime, thanks to its National Security Adviser Khalilur Rahman, appeared keen on the corridor idea. But a snag appeared because of the knowledge that the corridor deal would be between Dhaka and the rebel Arakan army which has been engaged in battling the Myanmar junta in the Rakhine region. The corridor idea was predictably condemned by Naypyidaw.

At home, leftist political parties, those still able to raise voices of protest in the stifling circumstances, have condemned the humanitarian corridor policy, terming it, correctly, as a threat to Bangladesh’s sovereignty. With elements of the Arakan army likely to operate at ease from within Bangladeshi territory, it was but natural for the idea to come under censure. Social media have been flooded with demands that the corridor not be permitted. The idea was final­ly shot down when the Bangladesh army, especially its chief of staff, made it clear that no humanitarian corridor would be permitted.

Bangladesh under Yunus has had increasingly intractable problems with India. With the Modi government taking steps to put a halt to all trade dealings with Dhaka along the various border routes, it is Bangladesh’s economy which has begun to feel the squeeze. The Indian authorities have imposed restrictions on imports of readymade garments

The army chief’s rejection of the corridor proposal placed him directly in opposition to the interim regime, but an encouraging result has been that the Yunus administration has stopped referring to the proposal. A few days ago, Khalilur Rahman, enthusiastic about the idea, quietly flew to Qatar. Why he made that trip and with whom he interacted there is a question yet to elicit a response from the government.

An equally significant issue has centred round the general elections that have been expected since the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s govern­ment. To date, the interim government has remained silent on a schedule for the elections, though Yunus has let it be known through his press secretary that elections would be held between December this year and June next year, and that he would not stay in office a day longer. Of late, Yunus has spoken of elections taking place any day in April next year. But General Waker-Uz-Zaman, the army chief, has waded into this too, publicly stating that the election must take place by December this year. The demand was upsetting for Yunus who, according to people close to him, made it known that he was considering resigning.

Yunus hasn’t resigned, of course. Nor did anyone expect it, with those opposed to him considering it a gimmick. But that the army is now ready, given its warning that it will no more tolerate any disruption to life and any mob rule, is regarded as significant by political observers. Questions have been raised afresh about the legality of the interim government, with a senior lawyer pointing out a couple of weeks ago that there was no evidence that any judge or judges had signed any judicial order permitting the Yu­nus regime to take office on the basis of Article 106 of the constitu­tion in the absence of any caretaker provision in the constitution.

The question prompted a meeting between Yunus and Justice Syed Refaat Ahmed, the chief justice appointed after mobs forced a number of judges out of office last year. The meeting raised eyebrows because it was an unprecedented move on the part of the chief justice to call on the head of government.

THE DOMESTIC SCENE APART, Bangladesh under the Yunus dispensation has had increasingly difficult, indeed intractable problems with India. With the Modi government recently taking steps to put a halt to all trade deal­ings with Dhaka along the various border routes, it is Bangla­desh’s economy which has begun to feel the squeeze. The Indian authorities have imposed restrictions on imports of readymade garments. Bangladesh’s garments exports to India annually fetch the country as much as $700 million. With New Delhi putting a stop to imports from Bangladesh through the 11 land ports it shares with Dhaka, Bangladesh’s economy is clearly caught in a bind. Add to that Delhi’s move to end a transit agreement that till recently allowed Bangladesh to export its goods to third countries through Indian airports and seaports. Such acts on the part of the Indian authorities have disappointed large sections of people in Bangladesh, whose surprise is rooted in the feeling that political differences between Dhaka and Delhi ought not to come in the way of economic as well as social links between the two countries.

The restrictions on visas for Bangladeshis intending to travel to India have made them explore ways and means of visiting other places in Asia. For their part, merchants as well as hotel owners in Kolkata despair at the absence of Bangladeshi tourists, who have traditionally been visitors to West Bengal over the past many decades, contributing to the economy of the state in a significant way.

Bangladesh’s economy will be hurt unless politics undergoes a positive change within the country and cer­tainly in the Yunus regime’s ties or the lack thereof with Delhi. With Dhaka calling a halt to yarn imports from In­dia over land routes in April this year, it is the garments industry which has been taking a mauling. Such moves come at a time when, especially in 2024, Bangladesh has been India’s larg­est trading partner. Traditionally, India has been Bangladesh’s second-largest export market, accounting for 12 per cent of the country’s total exports.

Yunus has let it be known that elections would be held between December this year and June next year, and that he would not stay in office a day longer. But general Waker-uz-Zaman has waded into this too, publicly stating that the election must take place by December this year

The Yunus regime, clearly rattled by the Modi government’s attitude, has been looking for new partners with whom to do business. The Modi-Yunus meeting on the sidelines of the recent BIMSTEC summit does not appear to have resulted in any improvement in the situation.

The interim government in Dhaka remains upset at the silence of the Indian government on its demand for the extradi­tion of Sheikh Hasina to face trial on charges of alleged human rights violations. Yunus also complained at a meeting with political leaders last week about what he referred to as Indian hegemony in relation to Bangladesh, a comment which will not go down well in Delhi in any efforts to improve what has been a swiftly declining state of bilateral ties.

In the last 10 months, Bangladesh’s new regime has been out on a journey exploring closer ties with China, a country Yunus has visited in recent times. The China factor does not need much wisdom on anyone’s part to understand that the interim govern­ment seriously believes that, with India unwilling to demon­strate friendship or sympathy, Dhaka can well afford to cultivate ties with China. Beijing has been unfailing in its efforts to reassure Dhaka of its support, but to what extent Dhaka can rely on Beijing for a fulfilment of defence deals remains a question. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which has in recent times caused concern in the regions where it has made inroads, worries many people in Bangladesh, given the instances of Pakistan’s experience in Gwadar and Sri Lanka’s in Hambantota.

The fact is that, despite the nosedive in their relations, India and Bangladesh cannot easily, if at all, wriggle out of the scores of agreements they have reached since 1971. In recent weeks, politi­cians who have been calling for early elections have carefully stayed clear of any move or statement that could be cited as toeing the interim government’s line on India.

The Bangladesh authorities have revoked the $21 million deal reached by the Sheikh Hasina government in July 2024 with India’s state-run shipbuilders, Garden Reach Shipbuilders and Engineers Ltd, for the purchase of an advanced ocean-going tugboat for the Bangladesh Navy. It was a message from the Yunus regime that it felt no compunction in doing away with a deal arrived at by two legitimate governments, no matter that the current dispensation in Dhaka lacks the constitutional authority to undertake serious policy matters.

At the other end, Dhaka’s growing links with Beijing are key to under­scoring the relations between the two countries at present. China has offered $2.1 billion to Bangladesh in loans, investments and grants. The offer includes a major segment of the aid for the Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project (TRCMRP), a development which the Yunus adminis­tration will certainly see as a boost for its policy of diversified diplomacy in the region.

It is the overall situation in Bangladesh, though, which today is a burden for the interim government. Politics has stalled. With political prisoners, journalists, artists and others hauled to prison on spurious charges of committing murder under the Hasina government and with little or no legal assistance provided to them, the country is in deep trouble. The recent arrest of Selina Hayat Ivy, the no-nonsense and incorruptible mayor of Narayanganj dismissed by Yunus, the waters are clearly being muddied by the powers that be.

The media remain in a state of silence, with editors and other journalists unable or unwilling to comment on the asphyxiation that has taken hold of freedom of expression. The economy is in trouble, with factories unable to come by the required volumes of gas that will enable a smooth production of goods. Homes are woefully short of gas supplies, making it impossible for families to engage in normal cooking day after day.

The complexities do not end there. With the recent contro­versial move by the interim government to ban the activities of the Awami League, it has clearly tied itself in knots. The ban was imposed in the government’s usual manner: mobs of its support­ers demanded that the Awami League be outlawed. And the mob, shockingly, was listened to.

Outlawing the Awami League has created enormous problems for the Yunus regime. Any election on its watch will not produce a legitimate government for Bangladesh if the ban is not rescinded and the party is not permitted to participate. All political parties know a fair election will not happen if the Awami League is not part of the process

The difficulty with the decision (Yunus’ animosity towards the party was manifested the other day when he told the political leaders he had invited for talks on the existing situation that the Awami League was destabilising conditions in the country) is that the Awami League is not only the politi­cal organisation which led the move­ment for Bangladesh’s independence from Pakistan but has also been, as the nation’s largest political party, the recipient of anywhere between 35 per cent and 40 per cent of the popular vote in recent decades.

Meanwhile, random but unveri­fied surveys on social media indicate that the ban imposed on the party has led to a boost in its popularity, enough for it to come by a massive victory in an election it could take part in.

Outlawing the Awami League has created enormous problems for the Yunus regime. Any election on its watch will not produce a legitimate government for Bangladesh if the ban is not rescinded and the party is not permitted to participate. All political parties which have considered themselves beneficiaries of the agitation that dislodged the Awami League government in August 2024 know full well that a free, fair and credible election and a stable government will not emerge if the Awami League is not part of the process.

The army has been busy with a mop-up operation going after lawless elements in the week since General Waker-Uz-Zaman declared the force’s intention to go after the elements of disorder. In Rangpur recently, when a mob descended on the home of late President Hussain Muhammad Ershad and set about vandalising it, the army intervened firmly by taking action against the young men who had entered the premises.

The local army commander summoned a key youth figure supportive of the Yunus regime to serve warning that no such anarchy would be tolerated any more. It was a strong message which was welcomed by citizens across the spectrum. The army remains the one force that can roll back the mobs that have been hollowing out Bangladesh through organised assaults on its history, heritage and social order.

Much has been lost in the 10 months since August 2024. Whether the soldiers are able to put the leash on the agents of chaos and their patrons in the coming days is a question that should be answered soon.

Awami LeagueBangladeshelectionsGeneral Waker-Uz-ZamanIndia-Bangladesh relationsMuhammad YunusNarendra ModiSheikh Hasina