Endgame Karnataka

NOT FAR FROM BENGALURU’S outskirts, a group of people sipping their mid-morning tea are vocal about their support for the Janata Dal (Secu­lar), or JD(S), candidate who represents the Devanahalli Assembly seat. They volunteer that they are all Vokkaligas, a hardy peasant community that has for long propped up the fortunes of for­mer Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda and his son HD Kumaraswamy. They are not changing their allegiance, they say, adding that caste is a dominant factor in a region where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is looking to expand its foot­print. Given deep-rooted caste loyalties, the going is not easy for the saffron outfit, particularly in an Assembly election where local gripes, rivalries and loyalties assume exagger­ated importance. So it is with the men, all agriculturists, who quickly complain about the rates for the vegetables they grow and the cost of fuel and LPG cylinders, bemoan­ing that farming is not remunerative.

As the conversation progresses, the farmers agree that BJP is the likely challenger as the Congress nominee, a for­mer Union minister, seems to be thoroughly unpopular. A bunch of Congress workers left the party when news of the candidate’s nomination spread. “Congress is not much in discussion. It is the JD(S) man, Nisarga Swamy, who will win,” sums up Golla Gowda, as the group breaks up, revving motorcycles preparatory to leaving. A little farther, ahead of Devanahalli town, the mood shifts a bit. The constitu­ency has changed and the conversation is about a significant improvement in water supply as well as a rise in levels of groundwater, which had fallen as low as 1,500 feet and more, due to the benefits of the Koramangala-Challaghatta Valley (KC Valley) lift irrigation project that brings treated sewage water to the Chikkaballapur and Kolar districts. With the project surviving legal challenges, the advantages of the scheme are now flowing into the region where the treated water is filling dozens of lakes and recharging aquifers, delivering much-needed relief to residents of the many small towns and villages that dot the landscape. Mango and grape orchards, fields of tomato and beans, commercial cultivation of rose and marigold flowers, and silk farms all add up to a bright green coun­tryside that provides little hint of the privations of the not-too-dis­tant past. “An area of 10 acres has been sanctioned for a new market where it will be easier to take the local produce. We will not have to travel too far,” point out Ravi and his friend Madhu who seem upbeat despite some unhappiness over the Goods and Services Tax (GST) that applies to certain categories of transactions. The flower business in particular is good, and the BJP nominee K Sudhakar, a minister in the state government, appears to be well regarded. The JD(S) man, KP Bachegowda, has been a minister and is a familiar face, but the tangible gains of development boost the prospects of BJP retaining the seat in a challenging contest.

Though summer temperatures are rising, the harsh and unre­lenting sun that marks the hot season is absent and a transporter, a few farmers, a shopkeeper and some locals on a break from their work in Bengaluru, are gathered at a roadside eatery at Sidlaghatta. Asked about the electoral prospects of the leading candidates, they point out that both Congress and BJP have replaced their nominees, with the new nominees being Gowdas. BJP’s man Ramchandra Gowda seems to have gained their favour, as they discuss candi­dates and, like their neighbours in nearby villages, agree that wa­ter availability has vastly improved. A ₹75 crore high-tech cocoon market has been sanctioned for silk growers, giving rise to hopes that Sidlaghatta, already a major silk hub, could even rival the one at Ramanagara that records bidding and sale of several thousand kilograms of cocoons every day through a modern digitalised sys­tem. Similarly, initiatives to promote grape production attracts a positive mention from Mohan, HM Narayanaswamy, CT Murali and Anil, who are now quite animatedly discussing flower exports that are on a growth curve. BJP’s efforts to grow beyond its tradi­tional support, key to the party breaching the majority mark that has eluded it in state polls, may be finding a more receptive audi­ence here even though its bid to woo Vokkaligas by increasing their quotas in government jobs and state-run educational institutions by 4 per cent (a similar hike has been made for Lingayats) is working out rather unevenly. The precise benefits of the enhanced quotas are unclear to many even as the Supreme Court’s questioning of the state government’s decision to provide the benefit by scrapping quotas for Muslims, who will now be eligible under the Economi­cally Weaker Sections (EWS) category, has also muddied the waters.

BJP’s campaign, with its focus on development and welfare, apart from a careful wooing of key communities, aims to over­come the deficit of not having been able to form the government in 2018. With the party stranded nine short of a majority, Con­gress and JD(S) quickly struck a post-election alliance to form the government. It was only in mid-2019 that BJP formed a govern­ment on the back of desertions from Congress and JD(S) ranks and even then the strain of political compromises was evident in the composition of the council of ministers. The decision to replace veteran BS Yediyurappa was no less significant as it meant new incumbent Basavaraj S Bommai did not have much time to consolidate and give governance a boost amid political manoeu­vres to ensure the government’s survival. Yet, as a revenue-surplus budget for 2022-23 presented by Bommai ahead of the election indicates, the state has done well. This has allowed the govern­ment to offer additional support to kisan credit cards as it seeks the crucial support of rythus (farmers) when the state casts the ballot on May 10. BJP leaders are banking on several initiatives like processing units for fruits and perishables; incentives for im­proved paddy yields in the coastal areas; price support for onions, potatoes and tomatoes; development of farm ponds; incentives for millet crops and irrigation. Given that it was close to the half­way mark of the current Assembly before the state government got down to the brass tacks, there are gaps in development and in the rollout of various programmes. Congress and JD(S) hope to exploit these chinks more often labelled as anti-incumbency. The impact of inflation and unhappiness about the rates of farm goods, along with caste loyalties that are more prominent in state polls, are the planks the opposition hopes to exploit, apart from the slew of welfare promises that are common fare during elec­tion time. Both Congress and JD(S) look for Muslim votes, hop­ing to leverage the community’s antagonism towards BJP. Both sides have attacked each other over corruption allegations, but the issue does not seem to be much discussed at the ground level, in village squares and at eateries in semi-rural and rural areas.

IN CHINTAMANI, AN Assembly constituency won by the JD(S) candidate Krishna Reddy in 2018, Prakash and Chand Pasha are not convinced about the Bommai government’s re­cord. Along with half-a-dozen other people taking a break from the noonday heat, they don’t feel there has been any acceleration in development work, and echo their unhappiness about crop prices not getting adequate state support. They also do not think there has been a substantial improvement in water supply, pointing heav­enwards to indicate their dependence on nature’s bounty. “The BJP government has been divisive, dividing people,” says Pasha. Asked about several welfare measures announced by the government, he expresses a lack of knowledge about the initiatives. In contrast to the situation in Sidlaghatta, the group points to the lack of cold storage and other facilities. In Srinivaspur, the adjoining constitu­ency, Riaz, Ashraf and Asaf Pasha speak of silk farming which they say has not recovered from the ravages of the Covid pandemic. The rates are now back to ₹4,000 per kg from the ₹1,500 they had fallen to, but the deficit has been hard to cover, they say. Touching on the election, they feel the “Modi label” will be less effective in an As­sembly contest. “BJP to Modi brand hai,” says Ashraf even as he admits that power supply has improved and almost everyone has a ‘card’ to access health and other services like PDS. Asked about a likely division of Muslim votes between Congress and JD(S), they do not rule out the possibility, but feel BJP will lag too far behind to profit. Srinivaspur is a dusty place with broken roads at odds with adjoining areas. The soil takes on a drier hue on the way to Mulbagal, a seat where an independent had won last time. A small knot of Dalits, standing in a field where they were cutting stubble, points out that the conditions support just one crop a year. The rest of the time, they work as labourers in nearby areas for ₹700 a day. Jyoti, a young woman whose husband is away at a labour site, says facilities like the local school and hospital are in working order. Shankar and his mother Lakshmi who are clearing the field say they are likely to vote BJP as they did last time. Quizzed about the benefits they have received from the government, they are not very forthcoming but insist that the party has worked for the welfare of people and should be given another chance. At Mulbagal itself, a couple of farmers, both Vokkaligas, back different choices. One agrees that the KC Valley project has made a clear difference to the level of groundwater while the other speaks of dissatisfaction about farm prices, a common refrain among voters looking for choices other than BJP. Their conversation continues for a while till tea served in small paper cups provides a break. A couple of young men, busy with their laptops and onlookers till now, suddenly offer the view that BJP is going to do well in Kolar district. The shopkeeper, Sheshadri, who offers photostat and stationary services apart from tea, emerges to back the youth. “The previous MLAs did not do much. At least BJP is trying and it has brought development proj­ects to this region. Isn’t that something?” he asks. By now the JD(S) supporter, clearly a man of some means, begins to get restive and asks whether the shopkeeper doesn’t have better things to do. It is time to finish the tea and move on.

IF THE DISTRICTS Of Chikkaballapur and Kolar to the east of Bengaluru are a test case for development politics, caste cal­culations and incumbency, the road snaking north of the city towards Tumakuru opens the doors to a similarly challenging, if different, countryside. The wide highway out of Bengaluru does not offer many opportunities for interaction with nearby villages with metal railings running along the sides. A break in the guide­rails marks Tiwari Pan Bhandar run by Sachidanand Tiwari from Gorakhpur in Uttar Pradesh. Tiwari found his way to this spot in Nelamangala, parts of which are being offered as farmhouse-style retreats not too far from Bengaluru, 30-odd years ago. Tiwari visits Gorakhpur twice a year where his brother minds their ancestral farm lands. Speaking of the conversation about elections, he says the area has a good presence of Vokkaligas who remain motivated by “caste feelings”, not dissimilar to how Yadavs stick to the Sama­jwadi Party (SP) in UP. A visitor to the pan shop cuts in with more explicit views on the need to back BJP for the “Hindu cause” as other parties will not. “BJP will protect our Hindu identity,” he says. The polarisation that is often discussed in the context of Karnataka in the light of issues like the hijab-in-schools controversy is not much evident in roadside conversations. It could be more charged in the coastal areas where the banned Popular Front of India (PFI) was involved in attacks on and murders of Hindu activists, but in cen­tral Karnataka the debate is more muted barring the exceptional outburst. Another customer, Satish, is a local farmer and reflects the pro-BJP sentiments of his Lingayat brethren. The desertions of a couple of prominent Lingayat leaders on being denied tickets do not seem to have affected the community’s preference for BJP in areas outside the rebels’ zone of influence. Six young men on motorcycles, all Vokkaligas, bear out Tiwari’s observation about the community’s loyalties as they speak of JD(S) and do not seem particularly aware of the state government’s reservation move. Tonachinakuppe is the smallest of pit stops on the highway to Tumakuru, but reveals a surprising variety of opinion.

The smaller road that branches west from Tumakuru opens a hinterland marked by tall and plentiful coconut trees amid rocky outcrops invisible from the highway. Soon, the boundaries of Sira Assembly constituency begin and a group of Vokkaligas gathered under a thatched cafeteria and snack joint offer an opinion differ­ent from their compatriots in Tonachinakuppe. They are all voting for Rajesh Gowda, who was previously with JD(S) and switched to BJP. He won the by-election caused by his resignation, part of the operation to install BJP’s government, and seems well placed to win his seat again. The farmers do not disagree that prices of petrol and other products have gone up, but say they are betting on Gowda and BJP for a better future. “We can see that development is hap­pening, it is visible,” says Hanumanth Gowda, with Shivkumar and Janaki nodding in agreement. The likelihood of the JD(S) rebel win­ning is good news for BJP which has banked on increasing the num­ber of seats it has given to Vokkaligas. Though Congress and JD(S) are the obvious alternatives wherever BJP is lagging, an absence of discussion about the main opposition should worry Congress. The party is not being spoken of as the replacement for BJP or as a clear contender for power. Its prospects may well hinge on a hung House that will allow a repeat of the Congress-plus-JD(S) math. The clash of competing narratives is clear enough. BJP’s pitch is based on leveraging its recent development initiatives, which include showpieces like the new Bengaluru-Mysuru highway, to argue that it has a plan for Karnataka’s future. The implied plea is that it will make good lags and quicken the state’s progress. Congress attacks the state government, alleging widespread corruption in contracts, and says that BJP has not worked for the weaker sections but its recent emphasis on a caste census and lifting of the 50 per cent cap on reservations is a new approach more in line with Mandal par­ties. The effort to disrupt BJP’s attempt to stitch a rainbow caste coalition wherein Other Backward Classes (OBCs) are a crucial rung has pushed Congress considerably adrift of a centrist position. The party seems more aligned with a caste-centric approach than it has ever been. The consequences of such a course, along with a pronounced left-of-centre positioning on many national issues, remain to be seen. BJP is certainly highlighting national issues, such as the Centre’s handling of the pandemic, India’s rising stature in global discussions, and the resolute action on border conflicts. But it has not lost sight of its local imperatives contrary to commentary in sections of the media. The party is hoping to get around issues like inflation and other localised grievances through its web of welfare schemes intended to support incomes. Again, these depend more on incentives rather than direct handouts.

The road from Tumakuru is a smooth strip of asphalt that leads to Huliyar in Chikkanayakanahalli Assembly constituency. BJP’s C Madhuswamy is being discussed as a favourite, although Con­gress fielding a Lingayat is seen by some as a complicating factor. Madhuswamy is a minister in the state government and has vig­orously defended the changes in the reservation matrix as being constitutionally and legally compatible. A group of Muslim auto-mechanics agrees to discuss the political prospects of candidates and one of them volunteers that BJP might win. A little distance away, a Kuruba (shepherd community) youth, who is running a mobile shop, makes no bones about his support for BJP, despite Congress leader Siddaramaiah hailing from the same caste group. Jaffer, who joins the conservation, agrees and, surprisingly, says some Muslims will vote for the saffron party. He does not appear to be either dissembling or acting due to the compulsions of company as he is quite matter-of-fact in stating that the state government has worked and delivered on schemes and projects. “People feel BJP will continue the work it has started and so the party will find support,” he says.

The twists and turns in the road that bends south towards Turu­vekere and Yadiyur and then joins the big highway running east-west towards Bengaluru are mirrored by the political debates and discussions. A little ahead of Turuvekere, at a busy market, a Vok­kaliga farmer whose dress and appearance make him a younger version of Deve Gowda, is quick to announce his loyalty to the JD(S) patriarch. As the conversation progresses, he agrees there is a dis­tinct improvement in power and water supply. He also says clashes and conflicts are down. “Some time back there was a big fight here. The police came quickly and a compromise was reached,” he says. But in an Assembly election, he would not let down Deve Gowda, reflecting a sentiment where communities do not want their re­gional leaders wiped out. The Turuvekere Assembly seat is largely rural and at a small bend in the road, a resting point for drivers and locals has a leafy feel to it. A local water treatment plant is a new addition, supplying nearby areas. The tea stall owner Jairam, a Lingayat, and a village gram panchayat member called Dinesh, a Vokkaliga, are in agreement that electricity and water supplies, as also education and health services, are in good shape. Dinesh feels a section of Vokkaligas could be tempted to vote BJP, but not many. In the end, they seem to concur that BJP has a shot at retaining office.

The conversations in Karnataka are not over; nor are they con­clusive. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is due to begin his final push through the state with a roadshow in Bengaluru. Finding a few missing pieces is vital for BJP’s bid to crack the state’s political jigsaw. Which way will Karnataka pivot? This election may well mark a turning point.

20232024: CountdownBasavaraj BommaiBJPBS YediyurappaGeneral election 2024Karnataka Assembly electionsNarendra Modi