Maximum Putin

How long can Russia sustain its war in Ukraine? Estimates stretch between 24 months and three years. That would work for Vladimir Putin but not Volodymyr Zelensky. There are countdown clocks ticking in Moscow and Kyiv, and no prizes for guessing which one is shorter. Putin is not interested in territory. He needs to enforce the siege long enough for Kyiv to become a vassal. The Russian president has become increasingly maximalist in his demands since the Alaska meeting with US President Donald Trump. He has threatened to attack Western troops should they set foot in Ukraine even as Russia targeted Ukrainian government buildings for the first time. After the trip to China, Putin might have reason to believe that a new world order more favourable to the Kremlin is on its way. Meanwhile, the Russian economy, which grew in the last couple of years because of oil and a military stimulus, is slowing: oil revenue has shrunk, growth has faltered, and inflation is about to hit households. Putin’s confidence results from Trump’s inaction after the expiry of each ultimatum and his refusal to coordinate with Europe. Putin knows Ukraine will soon be exhausted. But now Poland is shooting down Russian drones in its airspace—NATO airspace—and scrambling fighter jets.

Hitting Hamas in Qatar

Has Israel scored an own goal by targeting Hamas leaders in Doha, Qatar, as they had reportedly gathered to discuss Donald Trump’s ceasefire proposal for Gaza? The September 9—a day after the Jerusalem bus attack—strike embarrassed Qatar which has been the mediator in Israel-Hamas talks. Apart from angering Doha, Benjamin Netanyahu’s government now stands accused by Saudi Arabia and the UAE of endangering the security of them all. It would be ironic if Israel got labelled as a destabilising force in a region where it is the only functioning democracy. Netanyahu has vowed to eliminate Hamas leaders behind the October 7 attack wherever they are but the White House made it clear that the unilateral action advanced neither Israeli nor US goals. Trump was “not thrilled”. After all, thousands of US troops are stationed in Qatar. Success is one thing and consequence analysis another. In this case, the geopolitical fallout could be an end to the coalition against Iran that Israel had been building. Israel hit the ‘residential headquarters’ of Hamas in Doha but it may have damaged Qatar’s USP as a business and tourism hub while Hamas claimed the negotiation team had survived.  

Foreign Bodies

US lawmakers have been hearing testimonies of people who claim to have witnessed UFOs. While the official term is UAV—Unidentified
Anomalous Phenomena—UFOs fall in that category. But not all UAVs have been seen in the sky. Despite NASA’s denial of finding evidence of
extraterrestrial life or that UAVs are extraterrestrial, scores of people, over decades, have claimed to have seen them. Five such ‘witnesses’, including military veterans, testified this week and, given their complaints of persecution and the perception that the government is hiding things, the chair argued that what is known should be out there. 

DohaDonald TrumpHamasIndia-US relationsNarendra ModiQatartrade tariffUFOs