Congress Silence

Congress has so far avoided falling into the AAP trap with regard to the Central ordinance restoring the power of appointing and posting of officials in Delhi to the lieutenant governor. At the recent meeting of opposition leaders in Patna, AAP adopted an aggressive posture, demanding that Congress clarify if it is ready to oppose the ordinance in Rajya Sabha. Congress leaders maintained a stoic silence, leading to fissures in the anti-BJP ‘unity’ bid. Soon after, Congress Delhi leader Ajay Maken, a vocal critic of AAP, reiterated his opposition to the party in power in Delhi. Maken is aware that should Congress succumb to the pressure to “oppose BJP”, the decision will only suit AAP. There is no gain for Congress which would be firmly consigned to the also-ran spot in Delhi with AAP cornering the political plaudits. Recent municipal corporation elections in the capital showed an unexpected gain for Congress at the expense of AAP. The estimate is that the string of corruption cases against AAP leaders, despite protestations that these are a result of the Centre’s vindictiveness, might have begun to erode the party’s support. At such a time, if Congress threw a lifeline to AAP, the benefits in all respects would go to the Delhi government. So, despite the clamour of AAP supporters and the anti-BJP quarters, Congress has refused to rise to the bait. At least so far.

Climate of Collaboration

The joint press conference by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Joe Biden attracted wide comment for the responses of the two leaders to a question as to whether India’s minorities were facing discrimination. Hardly any notice was paid to the second question on climate change that both leaders answered in detail. While the question might have been seen as a ‘soft’ toss up, Modi explained in some detail India’s commitment and measures taken to meet its obligations. India is the only country on track to fulfil its Paris pledges and has set an ambitious target to make the Indian Railways net zero by 2030, a substantial task given that the rail system moves the equivalent of Australia’s population every day, he said. Modi also noted that the intensity of weather events meant that modern urban infrastructure needed to be designed and engineered for resilience, a comment that should be seen in the context of huge financial losses from cyclones and floods. Environmentalists noted that the responses were considered and detailed rather than superficial and passing.

Modi in Egypt

To the consternation of the Modi government’s opponents, cooperation between India and Arab Muslim nations of the Gulf and North Africa continues to grow. India’s deepening relations have helped it rescue citizens caught in difficult situations, such as conflicts in Libya and Sudan. The elevation of the India-Egypt relationship to a “strategic” one is significant as it marks closer ties with a populous nation that sits astride the Suez. Egypt’s strongman President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi is a doughty survivor who replaced the short-lived and chaotic Muslim Brotherhood-led government that held office after the Arab Spring. Despite the democratic spirit of the Arab Spring, Egypt’s elite rallied behind El-Sisi, seeking the comfort of stable governance and predictable rules of trade and commerce. Striking a chord with the former army officer helps India balance its relations in the Middle East, where Israel is a key partner, on an independent, one-on-one basis.

VHP Agenda

At its central governing council meeting held over the weekend, the Vishva Hindu Parishad decided to hold yatras and mobilise opinion in support of the “Hindu family system” which it feels has come under attack from various quarters. A clear subtext in the VHP resolution is what the organisation regards as the threat of “love jihad”, or conversion by subterfuge or deceit. VHP’s programme is no cause for surprise as it matches its declared agenda as well as that of its cousin Bajrang Dal. The mobilisation is to take place from now and peak around Diwali and will likely be most evident in north India where the organisation has a more prominent presence. Though not tailored to political purposes, the yatras will be held ahead of state elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh. The festive season is often seen by VHP as conducive to raising issues related to religious awareness. But even if its plan of action is unrelated, it does help BJP’s political narrative.

Biren Singh Stays

The all-party meeting on the Manipur situation saw several opposition representatives calling for the resignation of Chief Minister N Biren Singh. As it happened, there has been a welcome downturn in violence and Singh has had some progress to show for his efforts. Even before the all-party meeting, some MLAs from his own camp were making rebellious noises. But the Centre, after considering its options, arrived at the conclusion that no useful purpose would be served by further deepening the uncertainties in the state by taking knee-jerk actions. Singh has been told to redouble his efforts to reach out to all sides, including the Kukis who have been up in arms over the possibility of the majority Meiteis becoming eligible for quotas. The complex situation—wherein groups sympathetic to separatists are doing their best to frustrate the efforts of the state police, paramilitary and Army to restore order—demands careful and sustained action. The targeted militant acts, such as attacking residences and properties of BJP leaders, are seen as intended to provoke retaliatory action. The state government and security forces have been asked to tread carefully.

Eye on Moscow

Amid discussions on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s US visit and China, the threat of military action held out by the Wagner Group against President Vladimir Putin’s authority has rung more than a few alarm bells in Indian government and policy circles. The ‘deal’ between Putin and Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin that led to de-escalation may only be revealed bit by bit, but the events are a definite setback for the Russian president. The question doing the rounds is what Putin would do should the Russian forces lose ground in the face of Ukrainian counter-offensive. The Russian strongman is not the sort who would be willing to accept setbacks, much less defeats, as this would pretty much mean the end of the road for him. A dangerous escalation in the war would have serious implications for the global economy which is already witnessing weak growth. This in turn can distract attention from the post-Covid recovery efforts and impact nations like India that have weathered the storm so far. A spike in hostilities will also force the US to devote more time and resources to the crisis in Eurasia, not an unwelcome development as far as China is concerned.

AAPAjay MakenNarendra ModipoliticsVladimir Putin