A Caveat for India-US Ties

Despite some angry statements from US officials like the ones made by trade adviser Peter Navarro, India-US ties received a leg-up with President
Donald Trump noting there is no cause for worry over the “special relationship” and with Prime Minister Narendra Modi reciprocating the sentiment. The repair work may, however, be gradual as Modi is not going to New York for the United Nations General Assembly, effectively ruling out any likely bilateral meeting. The meeting of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) leaders is due soon and is to be hosted by India. It needs to be seen whether it will take place or be rescheduled. Trust and dialogue will be rebuilt step by step, and assessments that India was just waiting for an ‘off ramp’ and grabbed the opportunity presented by Trump’s post are not accurate. A good step for ties to pick up momentum again will be if the stalled trade negotiations restart in a purposeful manner. As long as the 25 per cent additional tariff imposed for the purchase of Russian oil remains, a return to the earlier warmth and ease in ties is not likely. The view in New Delhi is that reciprocity in trade deliverables is needed for a meeting of minds and a halt to the anti-India diatribe will help calm waters. Trump, meanwhile, has not ruled out another round of sanctions aimed at Russia as his bid to end the Ukraine war falters. This means criticism that Russian leader Vladimir Putin earned a PR win in Alaska at Trump’s expense is appearing more credible. This is not improving the MAGA supremo’s mood. In the event, New Delhi will play its cards cautiously, one step at a time.

Startups Get an Invite

Lunches and dinners hosted by the prime minister for visiting dignitaries are usually formal affairs where attendees are a mix of diplomats, senior officials, business representatives and a smatter of journalists. On recent occasions, young startup entrepreneurs have also been present. A young founder of a space startup was seen at a recent official lunch. The Trump tariffs could be an incidental but a timely wake-up call with a new generation of entrepreneurs, which is a break from traditional industry models. In due course, it is felt, these green shoots will grow into tall oaks and rework the way business is done with sectors like space.

Nation and Pride

Days after he hosted Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Japanese Prime Minister
Shigeru Ishiba quit following the heavy defeat of his Liberal Democratic Party in recent elections. One reason he had to go was the decision to accept a trade deal with the US that was perceived to have been dictated by the Trump administration. The development shows that ‘national pride’ is not just an empty phrase but has implications in public life. It can be leveraged to resist pressure and unify public opinion. Failing to do so can have serious consequences.

Sitharaman Rules Out Compensation

The GST Council meeting scheduled for two days last week finished its business in just a day as state governments quickly signed on to reducing rates and tax slabs. The Centre was prepared to push for a vote but the consensus was overwhelming. Kerala and Karnataka did raise the issue of compensation but Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman was clear that this was not on the table. The populist nature of tax reductions made it difficult to resist the changes.

Chinese Overtures

Chinese Ambassador to India Xu Feihong has been making a strong pitch for India-China ties and on September 8 said the two sides are working on an “early harvest” package on the border issues. He also said bilateral ties do not depend on any “third party”. The truth is that China has almost always seen India through the US lens rather than a separate relationship. If that is changing, it marks a significant break from the past. The dictum for India remains verify before you trust.

Indian Interest in Brussels

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has emerged a key figure in managing the European Union’s relations and interests. She played her cards deftly in dealing with US President Donald Trump and is keenly pursuing closure with India over a Free Trade Agreement (FTA). Her joint call with European Council President Antonio Costa during which the leaders discussed the FTA with Prime Minister Modi was significant. It was evidence of Von der Leyen’s connect with Modi and their determination to seal the agreement within months.

Cross-Voting Lessons

The 15 ‘cross votes’ in the vice presidential election and the 15 other invalid ballots have raised the usual questions over unity in the I.N.D.I.A. camp. But while the loyalty of MPs is being discussed, the vote demonstrates that the government can leverage votes in addition to its established numbers, something that can be handy when contentious legislation like One Nation, One Election are brought to Parliament. It is also a timely reminder of the benefits of EVMs. If MPs cannot use ballots correctly, how can they work in General Elections?

Donald TrumpIndia-US relationsNarendra ModiNirmala SitharamanShigeru Ishiba